MARCH 24, 2026   |   READ ONLINE

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Goldman Sachs…

Morgan Stanley…

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Publisher, The Oxford Club

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Exclusive Story

Credo Technologies Hits Bottom: Now Is the Time to Buy

By Thomas Hughes. Published: 3/9/2026. 

KEY POINTS

• Credo Technologies is well-positioned to rebound, as its results and guidance affirm its hypergrowth outlook.
• Analysts and institutions are accumulating this stock, and indicate a high-double-digit upside is possible. 
• Long-term drivers include an accelerated refurbishment cycle, with some estimates suggesting AI data centers will need new equipment every one to three years.
• Special Report: BREAKING: A C$26M Company Just Responded to the Pentagon’s Call for Critical Minerals. (From Small Cap Investments)

While near-term headwinds persist—primarily investor concerns—Credo Technologies’ (NASDAQ: CRDO) stock appears close to a bottom and is setting up for a rebound.

Those concerns focus largely on margins and customer concentration, with guidance for 2026indicating some gross-margin compression and a business heavily driven by three clients.

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The upshot: growth is expected to continue at a hypergrowth pace and margins remain strong, producing profits and cash flow that can be reinvested. Other key takeaways—drawn from analyst price targets and institutional activity—point to a solid support base, favorable market tailwinds, and the potential for roughly 90% upside this year. 

Institutional Buying and Analyst Targets Point to Major Upside

The analyst reaction to the March 2 earnings release was mixed—including some price-target cuts—but overall leaned bullish. Those downward adjustments reflect caution while still aligning with an outlook for higher stock prices.

Even the lowest new target of $125 implies upside from current support, while the consensus of recent targets suggests roughly 50% upside. Looking across all fresh targets—both bullish and bearish—the broader consensus allows for a substantially larger rebound, and the consensus of trailing 12-month targets points toward about 90% upside. 

Institutional trends are especially meaningful: institutional investors own about 80% of the company’s shares and represent the largest pool of investable capital. They have been net buyers for three consecutive quarters, with purchases ramping sequentially and reaching an all-time high in early Q1 2026. That accumulation reflects high conviction in an outlook that anticipates at least three more years of hypergrowth and a 2030 P/E multiple in the low teens. 

The stock could easily rise roughly 90% and may ultimately climb 100% to 200% over time. Although the business is concentrated among three hyperscalers—Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and xAI—those customers are expanding capacity aggressively and are likely to stay in investment mode for years. Not only are new data centers being built, older facilities need upgrades, and all will require periodic refurbishing. Data-center products run in high-power, 24/7, high-heat environments and degrade faster than traditional IT gear; estimates suggest refurb cycles could be as short as one to three years, a meaningful long-term tailwind for Credo’s business. 

Credo Technologies Stock Price Action Reflects a Bottom in Play

Credo Technologies’ stock struggled for traction in early March but now shows signs of a bottom forming. Lows hit ahead of the earnings report were retested afterward, followed by a rebound that confirmed $100 as a critical support level. Price action remains somewhat choppy—leaving the door open to another dip—but the stock continues to trade above that support while indicators show oversold conditions and waning bearish momentum. 

The most likely scenario is that the stock lingers near recent lows while holding support and building a base ahead of a rebound. A decisive trigger may not arrive until the fiscal Q4 2026 results and fiscal 2027 (FY2027) guidance, but several interim catalysts could spark a recovery—particularly any bullish updates from the company’s primary clients.

Credo Technologies Earnings Release: Sell-the-News!

Credo Technologies’ Q3 earnings release prompted a classic sell-the-news reaction; however, the underlying results were strong and consistent with a thesis that the stock may have bottomed.

Revenue rose 52% sequentially and more than 200% year-over-year (YOY), beating MarketBeat’s reported consensus by nearly 500 basis points (bps) thanks to strength across end markets.

Gross and operating margins improved markedly from the prior year, helping deliver $208.8 million in adjusted net income, a roughly 51% profit margin, and a 1,500-basis-point bottom-line outperformance, with earnings up more than 300% YOY.

Guidance was solid as well. For Q4 the company provided revenue guidance with $425 million at the low end of the range—about 450 bps sequential growth and roughly 350 bps above expectations at that floor.

Margin commentary was the main sticking point: management expects gross margin to compress by roughly 350 bps. That headwind is at least partly offset by nearly 200% YOY revenue growth and the likelihood that management issued conservative guidance.

The balance sheet shows no obvious red flags. The company is well-capitalized, cash balances are higher, liabilities are low, there is little meaningful debt, and equity is rising. Equity has increased by roughly 200% on a year-to-date basis, with total liabilities sitting at about 0.1X.

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