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Additional Reading from MarketBeat

Broadcom’s Margin Warning Spooked Wall Street—But Cash Flow Could Still Win

By Leo Miller. Published: 12/26/2025. 

Article Highlights

• Markets have crushed Broadcom’s shares since the firm reported earnings on Dec. 11.
• Forecasts regarding gross margin pressure are driving serious concerns.
• Broadcom’s proven track record outweighs the uncertainty many investors are feeling, supporting the stock’s positive outlook.

Investors are feeling more uncertainty around semiconductor giant Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) than they have in a long time.

Shares are down nearly 14% since the company reported its fiscal Q4 2025 results on Dec. 11.

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Broadcom’s post-earnings sell-off centers on one question: will the company’s fast-growing AI “system” revenue dilute margins—or still expand operating profit and free cash flow?

The answer could determine whether the decline is a short-term sentiment reaction or a broader reassessment of Broadcom’s long-term earnings power.

Gross Margin Concerns Weigh on AVGO Stock

The primary issue pressuring Broadcom shares after the release was management’s guidance on gross margins.

Next quarter, Broadcom expects gross margins to fall by about 100 basis points amid a higher mix of artificial intelligence (AI) revenue. With a 78% gross margin last quarter, management signaled margins could continue trending lower through 2026 as Broadcom ramps AI system shipments.

Rather than only selling chips, Broadcom is assembling them with third-party components—such as memory—and delivering complete AI systems to customers. That approach boosts total revenue but can lower overall gross margins because the company passes through the cost of those third-party parts.

This shift also raises questions about the profitability of Broadcom’s roughly $73 billion AI backlog, which it expects to convert into revenue over the next 18 months. Analysts note Broadcom’s orders from Anthropic, reportedly totaling $21 billion, are system sales. That represents a significant portion of the backlog and reinforces margin-related concerns.

Still, Broadcom emphasized that while gross margins will deteriorate, operating margins are expected to fall only slightly in 2026 because higher revenue can be spread over a larger base of fixed costs. Operating margin is more closely tied to free cash flow (FCF) generation than gross margin, so management’s confidence in protecting operating margin is a constructive signal.

Lower Margins Can Still Mean Higher Profits

Until recently, Broadcom had not pursued system sales at scale. Although investors typically dislike margin deterioration, companies often enter lower-margin markets to capture larger revenue opportunities. Broadcom expects this tradeoff to play out in 2026, where additional revenue could offset thinner gross margins.

There are logical reasons why system sales make sense in the Anthropic case. Broadcom is not developing a bespoke chip for Anthropic; instead, Anthropic will use tensor processing units (TPUs), which Broadcom originally developed for Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Broadcom’s experience with TPUs could allow it to deliver turnkey AI systems faster than Anthropic could build them in-house.

By providing complete systems, Broadcom can capture substantial new revenue and deepen its position in the fast-growing AI infrastructure market. Investors should watch whether system sales become a lasting strategic shift or remain a temporary growth lever—overextending into lower-margin segments could pressure profitability if not managed carefully.

Despite Uncertainty, the Long-Term Case Remains Strong

The disappointment from Broadcom’s earnings release largely reflects the introduction of uncertainty into the outlook.

Because investors don’t yet know how far gross margins might fall, the market understandably reacted.

What is clear, however, is Broadcom’s strong track record in AI chip design—second only to NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) in many respects.

Investors also note that Alphabet used TPUs to develop its Gemini 3 model, and that some analysts still see significant upside for Broadcom shares.

Against this backdrop, those factors support a continued bullish case for Broadcom despite the near-term uncertainty.

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