RJ Hamster
Four Tech Titans Refuse to Sell Off. That Should…
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Don here…
The S&P 500 is sitting near its closing lows since November.
Financials are down 10% on the year.
The market priced an $80 daily expected move and barely flinched. GDP, PCE, and durable goods all dropped this morning with zero market reaction.
Something has to give. I spent this morning’s session explaining exactly what I’m watching and when I expect it to break.
In today’s free session replay, you’ll discover:
- Why Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Tesla refusing to participate in sell-side activity is a warning sign. Three or four of the largest market caps are holding firm while the S&P drifts toward closing lows. If even one of them breaks, the floor disappears fast.
- How the JOLTS report quietly shifted order flow while everyone ignored it. GDP and PCE moved nothing. But two minutes after JOLTS hit, a 14-point candle printed in the S&P 500. The lesson is about what data is capable of moving order flow in this environment.
- Jeff Bierman’s roadmap for the next two legs. He expects a bounce near 6,650 led by financials. Then a second leg down to 6,200. His key tell is the character of the selling. Slow and orderly means we have not found a bottom. You need violent, high-velocity capitulation to put a nail in the coffin.
- Why I shorted Bitcoin through the iBit ETF this morning. Crypto rallied 5% on the day with no clear catalyst. If the S&P 500 sells off, crypto follows. I gave myself 63 days for the thesis to play out.
The week priced a $224 expected move in the S&P. We moved $30. That is a market sitting on a spring with no one willing to press the trigger. Eventually someone does.
I closed a 100% winner in Toll Brothers and repositioned into crypto. The full session walks through every decision and the exact framework behind each one.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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