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Just For You
Tesla Bulls See $500 Ahead—But Bears Warn of a Painful Reversal
Author: Sam Quirke. First Published: 12/11/2025.

Key Points
- Tesla is up 15% in the past month and more than 100% since April.
- However, analysts remain split, with some urging caution and others calling for additional upside.
- The chart and broader technical setup both point up heading into 2026.
Shares of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed around $445 on Tuesday, Dec. 9, extending a three-week rally that has seen the stock gain almost 15% from its mid-November low.
It remains one of the most polarizing names in the market—some see it as the defining growth story of the decade, while others view it as a stock priced for perfection.
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But regardless of which side of the debate investors fall on, one thing is clear: the chart is giving the bulls a firm vote of confidence. After briefly dipping to test its rising trendline last month, Tesla bounced strongly, holding comfortably above $400 and keeping its multi-month uptrend intact. That resilience, combined with firm technical momentum, is a positive signal heading into the final weeks of the year.
Bulls See Tesla as a Long-Term Growth Engine
For starters, analysts in Tesla’s bullish camp remain loud and confident.
The latest support comes from Piper Sandler, which reiterated its Overweight rating and $500 price target this week. That call echoed those from Mizuho, Cowen, and Stifel Nicolaus, who all reaffirmed their Buy ratings in recent weeks with similar price targets.
The common argument centers on the company’s vertical integration, expanding product lineup, and continued progress with Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. They see Tesla as uniquely positioned to capture the next wave of growth from autonomy and AI integration—including the robotaxi rollout, which could start contributing materially to revenue in the coming year.
There’s also confidence that Tesla’s margin pressures have peaked and that operational leverage will return in 2026. Bulls point to recent delivery data, especially out of China, improved cost discipline, and new product cycles as evidence that the company is far from running out of steam.
At a time when the broader market is re-embracing growth stocks, a high-momentum leader like Tesla tends to do well. If the macro backdrop holds through the holidays, this could be one of the cleaner setups among the mega-cap names heading into Q1.
Bearish Sentiment Focuses on Valuation and Competitive Risks
The skeptics, though, aren’t backing down. In the past few days, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight and set a $425 price target. That aligns with similarly cautious stances from Barclays, HSBC, and UBS Group in recent weeks, all of whom view Tesla’s valuation as stretched and the execution bar as very high.
The bear case is straightforward: a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 300 leaves little room for mistakes. The company trades at a multiple well above the rest of the automotive industry, and skeptics argue that despite the AI and FSD promise, most profits still come from selling cars—a cyclical business facing increasing competition.
They also point to Tesla’s uneven global performance. While sales momentum in China appears to be improving, its European business continues to lag, and ongoing price cuts in key markets raise concerns about profitability. For now, however, that caution hasn’t translated into price weakness: every recent dip has found buyers, and last month’s test of support appears to have reaffirmed the floor beneath the stock.
The Chart Tells Its Own Story
From a technical perspective, there’s little doubt the argument favors the bulls. The stock’s bounce off $385 confirmed another higher low in the uptrend that’s been running since April. In other words, the structure remains intact with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
Momentum indicators are echoing that strength. The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned back up from neutral territory, signaling renewed buying pressure. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) saw a bullish crossover at the end of November.
The next key test will be the $460–$470 resistance zone, where the stock has stalled multiple times this year. A breakout above that level would open the door to a run at $500—a target bulls have been eyeing for months and one Tesla could realistically test before long.
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