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Special Report

ASML Earnings Clear the Way for More Gains in 2026

Written by Dan Schmidt. Date Posted: 1/30/2026. 

Article Highlights

• ASML Holdings has a stranglehold on Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) light technology, which is necessary for making complex semiconductors.
• The company’s EUV machines cost between $200 million and $400 million, and no current competitor can match its precision or accuracy.
• ASML raised its 2026 revenue guidance as it introduces a new, higher-tech model to clients, but is the stock still a buy after a 30% rally in January?

Would you invest in a company that sells only about 40 units of its product annually? If it’s a large defense contractor selling jets to the government, that is a substantial sales quota. But what about a machine that projects light onto semiconductors? That might not seem impressive at first, but you could buy a squadron of F-35Bs from Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) for the price of a single Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine. And, like the F-35B, there’s only one company in the world making EUV machines: ASML Holdings N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML). Today, we’ll look at how this firm became the Netherlands’ most powerful tech company and one of the linchpins holding the semiconductor industry together.

Monopolizing a Crucial Area of Chip Development

Perhaps someday there will be a competitor to the mammoth EUV machines that ASML produces each year. The company doesn’t rely on regulatory protection or anti‑competitive tactics to keep rivals out. Instead, ASML has a de facto monopoly because no one else can do what it does: illuminating silicon wafers with high‑intensity ultraviolet light to pattern the most sophisticated chips in the semiconductor space.

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The process uses lasers aimed at tiny droplets of tin, vaporizing them into plasma that emits a burst of EUV light. That light is directed and focused by a precise arrangement of mirrors to imprint extremely fine patterns onto silicon wafers. Light of that wavelength and intensity doesn’t occur naturally, and ASML relies on a close partnership with Carl Zeiss ZMT, the world’s only supplier of the specialized mirrors used in these systems.

It may sound like a Rube Goldberg contraption, but EUV units cost between $200 million and $400 million. The machines are so complex that competitors can’t justify the enormous R&D expense required to build their own versions.

Even logistics are complex: shipping a single EUV system requires about 40 separate containers and on‑site assembly by a team of ASML engineers. In 2026, the company also plans to begin volume production of its new High‑Numerical Aperture (High‑NA) EUV machines. These systems, which will cost more than $400 million per unit, increase aperture size to enhance resolution and are intended to reduce process complexity and overall chipmaking cost.

Strong 2025 Earnings and Guidance Raise for 2026

ASML closed out its fiscal 2025 with a strong report in its Jan. 28 earnings release. Fourth‑quarter revenue was €9.7 billion (approx. $11.5 billion), bringing full‑year sales to €32.7 billion (approx. $38.8 billion), a 16% year‑over‑year increase. Gross margin for 2025 was 52.8%, and the company reported earnings of €24.73 per share (approx. $29.30) for the year.

ASML shrugged off concerns about a slowdown in China and raised its 2026 revenue guidance to €34 billion–€39 billion (approx. $40.3 billion–$46.2 billion). Management updated gross margin guidance to 51%–53%, reflecting the rollout of High‑NA machines, which will likely carry lower margins initially as manufacturing and supply chains are optimized. Still, management reiterated a long‑term target of achieving 56%–60% gross margin by 2030.

The stock currently trades at roughly 45 times forward earnings — a premium valuation, but not unprecedented given multiples seen among some AI‑adjacent tech names. ASML also has a backlog exceeding €38 billion (approx. $45 billion), which already eclipses the low end of its 2026 revenue guidance. That backlog provides a solid floor under revenue expectations while the company integrates new equipment. Additionally, ASML announced a dividend increase and a plan to repurchase more than €12 billion (approx. $14.2 billion) of shares before the end of 2028.

Chart Shows Bullish Momentum Reaching Overbought Territory

Management, investors and analysts are bullish about ASML’s 2026 outlook, and that enthusiasm may be bordering on overheated. The stock is already up more than 30% in January, helped by multiple analyst upgrades and higher price targets. The long‑term trend shows strong bullish momentum, with the price trading well above the 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages (SMAs), and the 50‑day SMA serving as support during volatility.

Despite solid fundamentals and a bullish technical picture, signs are emerging that the rally could be stretched. Wide daily trading ranges are becoming more frequent as the stock moves farther above the 50‑day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in overbought territory since before the ball dropped on New Year’s Eve. Investors may take some profits after the strong earnings report and analyst upgrades, so a brief pullback is possible. The 50‑day SMA could provide a reasonable entry point for new positions — watch the chart closely in the coming days and weeks.

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