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Sunday’s Featured Story
Merck Writes a $9.2 Billion Check for a Flu Drug That Could Change Everything
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published 11/18/2025.

Key Points
- Merck’s major acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics demonstrates a clear and proactive strategy to build its next-generation long-term revenue drivers.
- The acquisition secures a high-potential, late-stage antiviral drug that has already earned key designations from the FDA for its innovative approach.
- This strategic move reinforces Merck’s strong financial fundamentals and its unwavering commitment to creating sustainable, long-term value for its shareholders.
In one of the most decisive strategic moves in the biotech sector this year, pharmaceutical titan Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) has committed $9.2 billion in cash to acquire Cidara Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CDTX).
The announcement immediately sent Cidara’s stock price soaring more than 100%, a clear win for its investors.
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For Merck, the market’s muted reaction reflects confidence in a carefully planned move. This acquisition is more than a headline: it demonstrates Merck’s forward-looking approach to building the next generation of revenue drivers from a position of financial and operational strength.
A Strategic Imperative: Securing the Next Decade
For any pharmaceutical leader, managing the lifecycle of blockbuster drugs is a core strategic challenge.
Merck is proactively addressing the 2028 patent expiration of Keytruda, the oncology staple that currently accounts for a large share of its revenue.
Rather than wait, the company is executing a clear, science-led business development strategy to diversify its portfolio for the next decade.
This is not a reaction but a deliberate strategic offensive.
The Cidara acquisition exemplifies that strategy and is enabled by Merck’s strong finances. With trailing-twelve-month net income above $17 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio (D/E) of 0.69, Merck can absorb a $9.2 billion deal without straining operations or shareholder commitments. The move follows last month’s completed acquisition of Verona Pharma and its promising COPD drug, OHTUVAYRE.
These transactions show management’s discipline in using Merck’s balance sheet to acquire external innovation and reduce future risk. By expanding into the respiratory antiviral space, Merck is targeting a stable, recurring-revenue opportunity in the large global influenza market — a sensible diversification away from the intensely competitive oncology arena.
CD388: What Makes a Flu Drug Worth Billions?
At the heart of the $9.2 billion valuation is Cidara’s crown jewel: an investigational drug called CD388.
CD388 is not merely an incremental improvement; it could represent a paradigm shift in influenza prevention, which helps explain the premium price. Its value rests on several attributes that lower development risk and increase commercial upside.
- Advanced and de‑risked: CD388 is already in Phase 3 clinical trials, the final stage before regulatory review. That advanced status means much of the early scientific and clinical risk has been navigated — an important consideration for an acquirer like Merck.
- Potential new standard of care: As a long‑acting antiviral, CD388 is designed to provide season‑long protection against both influenza A and B from a single dose. That one‑and‑done approach could be a major advantage over current annual vaccines, which must be reformulated each year to match circulating strains. Its strain‑agnostic design aims to be effective regardless of dominant variants in a given season.
- Regulatory momentum: The drug has received both Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track designations from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Those labels are reserved for therapies targeting serious conditions that may show substantial improvement over available options, signaling regulatory confidence and a potentially expedited path to market.
Merck’s management has indicated high expectations, projecting a commercial opportunity that could exceed $5 billion annually — a blockbuster-level outlook that helps justify the acquisition cost and its potential contribution to Merck’s top line.
What This Deal Means for Investors
For investors, Merck’s acquisition of Cidara bolsters the long-term bullish case for the stock.
The deal provides a tangible growth pathway that helps insulate the company from future patent cliffs — a key risk for large pharmaceutical franchises. It shows management is proactively addressing long-range challenges with capital and execution.
That strategic foresight sits atop attractive financial fundamentals.
Merck’s stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of around 10.4, a valuation that looks reasonable relative to its growth prospects and the broader market.
The company continues to return capital to shareholders, with a dividend yield of 3.48% that has been raised for 14 consecutive years.
That dividend is supported by a payout ratio of about 42.8% of earnings, leaving ample capital for reinvestment and strategic deals like this one.
With a consensus analyst price target near $104.50, the stock shows roughly 12% near-term upside. The shares have already gained more than 10% in the last month, and this acquisition provides a fundamental catalyst to sustain positive momentum.
The Cidara deal is more than a pipeline add; it signals proactive leadership and long-term value creation, reinforcing Merck’s standing as a blue‑chip innovator preparing for the future.
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