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Additional Reading from MarketBeat

The S&P 500 Broke Its 200-Day Moving Average—Here’s What to Expect

By Sam Quirke. Article Posted: 3/20/2026. 

Key Points

• On March 19, the S&P 500 slipped below its 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year.
• Historically, this signal has led to very different outcomes depending on what happens next, with some breaks quickly reversing and others leading to further drawdowns.
• With geopolitical tensions rising and volatility building, the next few trading sessions could determine whether this is a short-term shakeout or the start of something more serious.
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On March 19, the benchmark S&P 500 index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March of last year. With equities already choppy at the start of the year, this technical break is likely to make many investors nervous.

That said, the break itself is only part of the story. What matters far more — and what history shows most clearly — is how the market behaves in the days and weeks that follow. Below, we look at past outcomes when the index breached this level and what investors should watch for next.

Why the 200-Day Moving Average Matters

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The 200-day moving average is more than a line on the chart. It approximates the average price over the past 200 sessions, and its slope is a widely watched gauge of the broader market trend. When the index trades above it, investor sentiment tends to be constructive and dips are often bought; when it falls below, risk appetite can evaporate quickly as bulls step back from positions.

Large institutional investors commonly use this level as a trigger to adjust portfolio exposure, which is why breaks of the 200-day can sometimes produce accelerated moves — especially if they are followed by additional selling. That said, not every breach leads to a sustained downturn, and recent history shows a range of possible outcomes.

What Happened the Last Few Times

Recent examples show two clear patterns: the index either quickly reclaimed the 200-day moving average and resumed its rally, or it sank into a multi-month drawdown.

In early 2023, for instance, the S&P 500 briefly fell below its 200-day moving average on two occasions. In both cases the index reclaimed the level within days and rallied strongly thereafter. A similar sequence unfolded in October 2023, when the index spent only about a week under the average before recovering and moving higher.

Those are examples of failed breakdowns: an initially bearish signal that lacked follow-through selling and instead helped fuel a sharp rebound.

By contrast, there have been confirmed breakdowns that led to meaningful weakness. In March 2025, the S&P 500 fell roughly 15% after slipping beneath the 200-day average before stabilizing. April 2022 remains a particularly painful memory for many investors: that break preceded a much deeper drawdown of more than 20%, and the market stayed below the moving average for several months.

The takeaway: the breach itself is not the full signal — the market’s reaction in the subsequent days and weeks determines whether the move is a failed breakdown or the start of a sustained correction.

How to Think About the Current Setup

It’s still too early to draw firm conclusions. On the day of the breakdown (March 19), the index closed well off its intraday lows, which suggests buyers were still active, at least in the short term.

At the same time, the backdrop is unsettled. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have sent oil prices higher, stoking renewed inflation concerns. That dynamic makes it more likely the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer, which is a headwind for equities.

Volatility is also picking up. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” has been trending higher since December and is up roughly 80% over that period, indicating growing investor anxiety beneath the surface.

The Next Few Weeks Will Be Critical

Investors positioning around this move can use broad S&P 500 ETFs such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: VOO) or the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) to navigate this key inflection point.

Much will hinge on oil and whether the S&P 500 can reclaim its 200-day moving average in the coming days. If the index gets back above the average quickly — say, by the end of March — history suggests this could be another false breakdown and a setup for renewed gains. If it fails to do so, the odds of a more prolonged correction rise materially.

For most investors, the prudent approach is to have a plan and manage risk rather than trying to time an exact bottom: monitor price action around the 200-day moving average, watch oil and volatility, and adjust exposure according to your time horizon and risk tolerance.

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