Duck And Cover: Big Money Sees What’s Coming

Don Kaufman here.

The marketplace feels invincible… right up until you see wild sellside activity like we just had.

I’ve been saying all day long that nobody wants to go home long the market this weekend.

Look, forget the geopolitical stuff for a minute.

What’s intimidating me right now is where we are in the volatility box. We broke the upside Wednesday, I said we’d probably trade back to 6011 on the SPX, and boom – where were we trading the next morning? 6011.

Now we’ve dropped back into the box and there’s nothing to latch onto between here and 5900. It’s a veritable air pocket where you just drop fast.

But here’s what really got me today – and I’m pretty shocked because I trade volatility futures extensively:

• The volatility futures compression from $1.50 to just 30 cents – that’s shocking

• Why oil margin changes tonight could blow out positions both ways

• The bond tell during a fear trade that changes everything about market structure

The VIX traded over 1.1 million contracts today – mostly calls. That’s how you reduce risk, and it’s telling me that big money is intimidated.

The VVIX is through the roof – that’s duck and cover activity.

And bonds? This is the opinion piece – in the midst of a fear trade, we’re not seeing the usual rotation into treasuries. That’s a huge tell, okay? Our bond problems are not going away.

Financials got absolutely decimated today. Regional banks holding boatloads of bonds, and if you bought bonds anytime since 2010, you’re probably down.

Next week: Triple witching with a $130 expected move in just four trading days.

Expect us to threaten 5850 at some point next week, and it’s getting real out there.

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To your success,

Don Kaufman

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Duck And Cover: Big Money Sees What’s Coming

Duck And Cover: Big Money Sees What’s Coming

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