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Today’s Bonus Content

Down 45% Year-to-Date, Novo Nordisk Ignites a Price War

Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 11/19/2025. 

Quick Look

• The company’s new pricing strategy is designed to make its popular treatments accessible to millions of new patients in the cash-pay market for the first time.
• This aggressive pricing is a calculated maneuver to neutralize competitor advantages and proactively align with the political push for greater drug affordability.
• The company is funding this growth strategy with internal savings to expand its user base for both current and future innovative treatments.

For investors in Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO), 2025 has been a difficult year. After reaching a 52-week high of more than $112, the stock has fallen roughly 45%, reflecting rising competitive pressure and concerns about slowing growth in its core GLP-1 franchise. In a dramatic shift, the company has just made a decisive strategic move.

By cutting direct-to-consumer (DTC) prices for Wegovy and Ozempic to $349 per month, Novo Nordisk has upended its prior pricing approach. That raises a crucial question for shareholders: is this a defensive reaction to market pressure, or a calculated offensive to secure long-term dominance and reignite growth?

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A closer look suggests it is a deliberate investment in a high-volume future.

Capturing Millions and Boxing Out Rivals

Novo Nordisk’s aggressive pricing pivot is not a simple promotional discount; it appears to be a multifaceted strategy intended to reshape the market in its favor. The rationale seems built on three core pillars:

• Capturing the untapped market: The primary goal is to unlock the sizable cash-pay market. Millions of potential patients in the U.S. remain priced out of GLP-1 treatments because they are uninsured, underinsured, or face high deductibles. The new, lower price point makes these drugs accessible for the first time, substantially expanding the total addressable market. This aligns with management’s stated focus on serving a much broader patient population through direct-to-consumer channels, turning a market-share battle into one of market creation.
• Countering the competition: The move is also a direct response to Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY). As competitors have gained ground—eroding Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 value market share in International Operations from 71.6% to 56.3% in a year—this price cut neutralizes a key rival advantage. By establishing a new, aggressive price floor, the company challenges others to match it while leveraging its significant manufacturing scale as a competitive weapon.
• Aligning with policy: The timing, shortly after a deal with the administration to improve drug affordability, is also politically astute. By proactively lowering consumer costs, Novo Nordisk builds political goodwill and may reduce the risk of stricter government-mandated price controls. This positioning could help when negotiating expanded Wegovy coverage into the large Medicare market, creating another potential long-term growth driver.

Why Wall Street Is Worried, and Why That View Is Short-Term

Wall Street’s immediate caution is understandable. Lower prices mean lower revenue per prescription, which will pressure profit margins and contributed to the company narrowing its 2025 sales-growth guidance to 8–11% at constant exchange rates. However, when this is viewed as a strategic investment rather than a permanent loss, a compelling long-term case emerges.

The company’s internal restructuring provides financial support for this growth-oriented strategy. Novo Nordisk recorded a one-off cost of DKK 9 billion (about $1.4 billion) in its third-quarter 2025 financial release, and expects roughly DKK 8 billion (about $1.24 billion) in annual savings by the end of 2026. Those savings help fund the aggressive market expansion, enabling the company to absorb near-term margin pressure while investing in a larger future.

This financial discipline is paired with major investments in production capacity, including the roughly $11 billion acquisition of three Catalent manufacturing sites, to ensure the company can meet an anticipated surge in volume.

The long-term bull case comes down to volume. A substantial increase in prescriptions from millions of new cash-pay customers—and, eventually, Medicare patients—should generate greater aggregate revenue and net income over time.

The strategy also builds a large, loyal user base for current blockbusters, creating a platform for future product launches. That includes the expected oral Wegovy pill in 2026 and the CagriSema combination therapy, which together can help sustain and diversify the revenue runway.

A New Chapter for an Industry Leader

Novo Nordisk isn’t just competing on price; it’s reshaping the economics of the multi-billion-dollar obesity market to favor its strengths in manufacturing and global scale.

This strategic pivot, combined with a robust pipeline, appears to lay the groundwork for a new growth foundation that the market may be underestimating, as reflected in the stock’s recent valuation.

With a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of about 13.1 and a dividend yield of 1.72%, the valuation metrics suggest a potential value opportunity after this year’s sharp decline. The consensus analyst price target of $59.20 implies upside of more than 24% from current levels.

Execution risks remain, but the strategy is clear, funded, and aimed at a vast unmet need. For long-term investors, this period of strategic transition and uncertainty could be a timely opportunity to reassess a market leader in the pharmaceutical sector at a valuation that may not yet reflect its volume-driven future.

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