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Thursday’s Bonus News

Regional Banking Sector Near a Critical Inflection Point

Submitted by Ryan Hasson. Posted: 1/14/2026. 

What You Need to Know

• Regional banks are nearing a significant level, with the KRE ETF consolidating just below resistance at $70, setting up a potential breakout or double top scenario.
• A confirmed breakout in KRE could benefit not only regional banks but also small-caps more broadly, given the heavy financials weighting in the Russell 2000.
• Huntington Bancshares offers leverage to the theme, combining a bullish technical setup near long-term resistance with an attractive dividend and upside potential based on analyst targets.

Admittedly, technology stocks continue to dominate headlines. Artificial intelligence has powered much of the S&P 500’s record gains, and newer themes such as agentic AI, drones and defense, and precious metals are capturing investor attention early in the year. But markets often rotate leadership quietly. While the spotlight remains on high-growth sectors, one group is approaching a technically significant inflection point that could have broader implications for market direction.

That sector is regional banking.

Regional Banking Sector Near a Critical Inflection Point

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The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA: KRE), which tracks the sector, is consolidating just below a multi-year resistance level near $70. From a longer-term technical perspective, this area represents a pivotal battleground. Technicians and investors are asking: is KRE forming a double top, or is it building a base for a breakout that could mark the start of a new uptrend?

The answer isn’t clear yet. What is clear, however, is that KRE has spent an extended period digesting prior gains rather than breaking down — which is constructive. Extended consolidation near resistance often reflects improving demand and absorption of supply. If sellers were firmly in control, the price would likely have already rolled over; instead, the ETF continues to hold its range.

The immediate level to watch is the recent pivot high near $68.67. A sustained move through that level would put the $70 area squarely in focus. A clean breakout above $70, particularly on expanding volume, would be a decisive technical development and could signal renewed leadership from regional banks after years of underperformance.

Conversely, repeated failures near resistance would raise the risk of a double-top formation. A rejection from this zone would suggest the sector still lacks the fundamental or macro support needed to sustain higher prices.

3 Ways to Position for a Potential Breakout

Investors who expect a regional banking breakout can take different approaches. For those seeking diversified exposure, the simplest option is the KRE ETF itself.

KRE tracks the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index and provides broad exposure across U.S. regional and diversified banks. The fund manages $4.3 billion in assets, carries a dividend yield of 2.37%, and charges a net expense ratio of 0.35%. Roughly 78% of the fund’s exposure sits in diversified banks, with another 15% allocated to regional banks. For investors looking to avoid single-stock risk, KRE offers a straightforward way to participate in the theme.

Another potential beneficiary is the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA: IWM). While IWM might not be the first vehicle that comes to mind when discussing regional banks, financials make up more than 20% of its sector exposure, and regional banks are a meaningful portion of that weighting. Sustained strength in KRE could therefore provide a tailwind for small-cap equities, especially if improving bank performance signals healthier credit conditions and economic resilience.

For investors willing to be more selective, individual names within KRE can also be attractive.

Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ: HBAN), the ETF’s seventh-largest holding, is consolidating just below long-term resistance near $18, a level that has capped its price for several years. A breakout in the broader sector would likely improve the odds that HBAN clears this resistance and enters a new trend phase. Beyond technicals, Huntington offers a 3.46% dividend yield and carries a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating, with analyst targets implying roughly 12% upside.

A Sector Worth Watching Closely

Regional banks may not carry the excitement of cutting-edge technology themes, but their positioning near significant resistance makes them increasingly relevant. Whether KRE resolves higher or fails at resistance, the outcome could influence sentiment across financials and small-caps more broadly. As markets rotate and leadership shifts, the regional banking sector is approaching a moment investors would be wise to monitor closely.

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