RJ Hamster
Critical Metals Are Fueling America’s Industrial Revival
Washington’s New Metals Push Looks to Spark a U.S. Comeback
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See how this rare critical-metals play could strengthen America’s future >
Just For You
Trump Triggers Buying Opportunity in UnitedHealth Group
Authored by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 1/27/2026.
Key Takeaways
- Trump’s proposed rate increases sent UNH and other insurers into the buy zone.
- UNH continues to work on its turnaround, sustaining margin strength in Q4.
- The 2026 guidance is likely to be cautious, setting this stock up for outperformance as the year progresses.
The Trump administration sent ripples of concern through the insurance sector in late January, creating what many investors view as buying opportunities in UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH)and other insurers. The sell-off followed a proposed update to Medicare reimbursements paid to private plans; investors reacted because the headline increase was well below expectations, implying tighter payment growth than the market had priced in.
Insurance stocks fell broadly after the announcement, and UnitedHealth’s share price has corrected by roughly 50% since mid-2025 amid CEO turmoil, a major cyberattack, and heightened regulatory and investor scrutiny.
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The reimbursement proposal does present a genuine risk to UNH and other insurers. That said, the 0.09% headline increase understates the impact: the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) noted the per-member average reimbursement would be more than 2.5%, a level more consistent with long-term growth expectations.
There is also scope for changes before the new rates take effect in 2027 — the administration can revise its proposal, Congress can act, and the CMS, which issues the final rule, often diverges from presidential recommendations because Medicare and Medicaid payment formulas are largely mechanical.
UnitedHealth’s Dividend Looks Secure as Buybacks Continue
UnitedHealth Group’s stock is near long-term lows, and importantly, capital returns remain a priority.
UnitedHealth’s dividend appears safe and reliable; the bigger potential risk is a slowdown in the pace of share buybacks.
Even so, the company still expects to reduce its share count in 2026 and 2027, extending buyback-driven momentum after a 1.8% reduction in 2025.
The dividend is compelling, with the yield topping 2.5% while the stock trades near long-term lows.
The payout ratio is a manageable and sustainable 40%, leaving ample cash flow to support annual increases in the distribution.
The company is on track for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats, a milestone it is likely to reach by the middle of the next decade.
UnitedHealth Group Delivers Margin Strength Amid Turnaround Efforts
UnitedHealth struggled in Q4 with lingering one-off expenses that impaired results. Net revenue of $113.21 billion was up more than 12% year-over-year but missed estimates by roughly 50 basis points. The revenue shortfall was almost negligible given the margin strength, which exceeded MarketBeat’s reported consensus. By segment, UnitedHealthcare led with a 17% YOY increase, while Optum grew about 8%.
Costs rose, but operational improvements largely offset them. The medical care ratio increased while the operational ratio remained flat, leaving earnings roughly in line with consensus despite top-line softness. These results should be sufficient to sustain financial health and capital returns, and guidance calls for further margin improvement in the year ahead.
Analysts and Institutional Activity Align With UNH’s Bottom
Analysts and institutional activity aren’t overtly bullish, but both are consistent with a 2025/2026 bottom for UNH. Analysts, who pressured the stock with downward target revisions earlier, shifted their stance late in 2025. The consensus rating remained at Moderate Buy, and a set of reiterated or increased price targets helped halt the sell-off and establish a price floor.
Meanwhile, institutions — which collectively own about 85% of the stock — bought on balancethrough 2025, underscoring the deep value many see today. The opportunity in 2026 is that steady analyst and institutional support will stabilize the stock and set the stage for a rebound, likely before year-end.
UNH’s 10% January price drop — driven by the administration’s announcement the evening before the Q4 report — pushed the stock back to a critical support level and helped define the current bottom. It’s possible the stock could test 2025 lows again, but a significantly lower low is not the base case. The more likely scenario is that UNH reconfirms support around the roughly $300 level and begins rebuilding its support base.
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