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Sunday’s Bonus Story

D-Wave’s Big Deal, Bigger Question: Can Sales Catch Up to the Hype?

Reported by Nathan Reiff. Posted: 2/2/2026. 

Key Takeaways

• D-Wave announced two major contracts worth a combined $30 million in late January, shortly after revealing shelf registrations totaling $330 million.
• The company’s revenue doubled year over year in the last reported quarter, but it remains very low in absolute terms.
• One of the contracts, in particular, is for quantum-computing-as-a-service tools and could lead to recurring revenue beyond the initial two-year agreement, a positive sign for D-Wave.

It has been a big year so far for D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS). In January the company closed its $550 million cash-and-stock acquisition of Quantum Circuits, significantly expanding D-Wave’s gate-model quantum capabilities. While the deal has reinforced D-Wave’s position as a leading quantum computing player with notable advantages over competitors, shelf registrations totaling $330 million in the first month of the year may also raise concerns about further dilution.

Investors have been cautious: QBTS shares are down about 27% year to date. The Quantum Circuits acquisition boosts D-Wave’s technical credentials, but it doesn’t immediately answer a key investor question — can D-Wave grow sales fast enough to narrow losses and move toward profitability?

2 Sales Landmarks to Start the Year

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In late January, D-Wave sought to reassure investors about its revenue potential by announcing two notable contracts. Florida Atlantic University agreed to buy and install an Advantage2 annealing system for $20 million, and an unnamed Fortune 100 companysigned a two-year quantum-computing-as-a-service (QCaaS) contract worth $10 million.

These deals represent a meaningful pickup in sales and are a positive early indicator for the year. D-Wave’s revenue growth has been steady but remains modest in absolute terms—revenue more than doubled year over year in the third quarter of 2025, but only reached $3.7 million. The question is whether this momentum will convince investors that D-Wave can sustain the level of sales growth needed after its roughly 255% rally over the past year.

Concerns About Top- and Bottom-Line Performance Linger

Some investors are less focused on the number of contracts and more concerned about their character. One-off system sales of the Advantage2 can produce sizable revenue bumps, but they are finite and do not create recurring revenue. The QCaaS agreement, though light on details so far, could be more valuable if it leads to expanded usage, follow-on purchases, or additional service contracts.

Even with stronger sales, it’s unclear these alone will push D-Wave to profitability. The company appears to have ambitious expansion plans that will continue to draw on cash and likely require additional capital raises—keeping expenses elevated for the foreseeable future. Many recent Advantage2 customers have been universities and municipal organizations, and D-Wave has yet to demonstrate broad adoption across large numbers of corporate clients.

Considerations for Investors

Given these factors, D-Wave may remain too speculative for some investors. The timeline for quantum computing to play a major, everyday role for most businesses and consumers is still uncertain and may be years away.

That said, D-Wave’s dual focus on both gate-model and annealing technologies could prove transformational as the industry matures, and the company has continued to gain commercial traction supported by notable technological progress over the past year.

Valuation is another important consideration. Even after the recent pullback, D-Wave shares have more than tripled over the last year, leaving the company with an extremely high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 888.4. Investors should decide whether the latest dip offers an attractive entry point, or whether the stock’s rapid rise has outpaced fundamentals.

Analysts appear optimistic. Thirteen of 15 analysts have rated D-Wave a Buy, and the consensus price target across Wall Street is $38.21—about 88% above the stock price as of early February 2026. Investors may view this analyst support, together with D-Wave’s recent sales agreements, as reason to believe the share price still has room to run.

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