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Netflix Just Set a Hard Low—Is This The Start of a 40% Rally?
Authored by Sam Quirke. Published: 1/30/2026.
Key Takeaways
- Netflix stock has stabilized after a brutal selloff, with last week’s earnings removing a major overhang.
- The stock is continuing to trade above its recent low as expectations build for a recovery rally.
- Analysts are calling for as much as 40% upside in the months ahead.
Shares of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) may finally be showing signs that the worst is over. Falling as much as 40% from last summer’s all-time high, Netflix was among the worst-performing mega-cap stocks in 2025. Sentiment had become depressed, growth prospects had dimmed, and the company entered its Jan. 20 earnings report with low expectations.
That may have helped: Netflix shares put in a clear low immediately after its Q4 earnings reportand have held support since.
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After the preceding selloff, a meaningful shift in tone appears to be emerging. With earnings now out of the way and much of the downside already priced in, the risk-reward balance is tilting in favor of the bulls—let’s take a closer look at how good it could get.
The Earnings Band-Aid Has Been Ripped Off
The Q4 report wasn’t a blowout, but it didn’t need to be. Netflix topped analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings, enough to challenge the prevailing bearish narrative and force skeptics to reassess.
Revenue was up more than 17% year-over-year, free cash flow came in strong, and a global audience is approaching a billion users. Against that backdrop, the bearish case looks increasingly hard to defend.
After months of selling, the market was primed for further disappointment. Instead, Netflix delivered solid, resilient results consistent with a business that is still growing—just not at the rapid pace investors once expected.
Importantly, the report removed a major source of uncertainty. Investors had been waiting to see whether Netflix would stumble again; with that hurdle cleared, the stock has some room to breathe.
Price Action Is Starting to Look Good
From a technical perspective, the post-earnings price action is encouraging. After gapping down the morning after the release, Netflix shares immediately bounced. Whether the stock can break its multi-month downtrend remains to be seen, but this is a positive start.
This matters given the broader market backdrop. Equity markets have shifted back into risk-on mode recently, with the S&P 500 registering fresh record highs. In that environment, deeply discounted mega-cap names with improving fundamentals and bullish price action tend to attract buyers.
Analysts Are Leaning Back In
It’s no surprise analysts are beginning to turn more positive on Netflix. In the week since earnings, firms such as Loop Capital, UBS Group, and Robert W. Baird have reiterated Buy or equivalent ratings. Baird’s $120 price target is notable, implying upside of more than 40% from current levels.
Wedbush has also adopted a bullish view, highlighting Netflix’s advertising business as a key upside driver. The firm expects ad revenue to at least double through 2026, with further upside as pricing power and engagement improve. When multiple firms converge on a recovery thesis after a prolonged selloff, it’s a clear sign sentiment is shifting.
The Outlook From Here
That said, Netflix is not risk-free. Bears will point to significant uncertainty around the ongoing bidding dynamics for Warner Bros.
There is, however, a growing sense that once that deal is resolved—whatever the outcome—a major overhang will be lifted. Markets dislike uncertainty almost as much as bad news, and Netflix has been trading under that cloud for months.
The key for now is price action. If Netflix can continue holding above last week’s low in the coming weeks, it would lay important groundwork for a sustained recovery.
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Further Reading: 5 Best Stocks Under $5 to Buy Now (Click to Opt-In)
By Dan Taylor – Comedy Writer on February 8, 2026When I was twelve, I pointed at my buddy’s face and said, “You look like a monkey.”I laughed at the observation and then, having agreed with the accuracy of the observation and its humorousness, our close-knit group of friends joined in.His school life was never the same.For the next four years, he was known as Monkey.We called him Monkey so consistently, I often forgot what his real name was, and would be surprised when a teacher referred to him as his Christian name Scott.He, in the 
A photo of Scott I acquired from his Facebook pageI don’t know if he liked the nickname. We never bothered to ask him. And I suspect that if he had 
“This is great and everything. But can you guys stop calling me Skidmark?”Like I often do, I found this out the hard way.I had a colleague once called Frederick. We became friends and so it became natural to me to decide to call him Freddo.A Freddo, for those unfamiliar with British culture, is a cartoon-frog-shaped miniature chocolate bar.The name didn’t stick. No one else started to call him it. And on top of that, he quietly asked me to stop calling him such.Because 
I also take a hard stance on the shittiness of their potato salad.One thing you notice about nicknames is that they’re almost always given by a friend or family member.Take my buddy Monkey. Sure, the first time I called him Monkey, I was saying he looked like a monkey. And probably the next ten or so times.But after that, it became a term of endearment. He was Monkey, the dude we always hung out with. We weren’t mocking him when we said it, and we weren’t bullying him.Like I mentioned, we were teenagers and so we never discussed it with him. But he must have liked the name on some level. How do I know? We remained 
Another photo of Scott I harvested from his Facebook page. I believe this is him on vacation.I have first-hand experience to back up this claim, too.During one of my first PE sessions at high school—a game of rugby—the coach out of nowhere started called me ‘Tad.’I didn’t understand rugby, and I still don’t, but because I could run really quickly, I was good at scoring tries.Every time I’d receive the ball and run like Forest Gump toward the try line, he would cheer me on, saying something like, “Go on, Tad!”I never told him, as I was mumbling boil-ridden weirdo incapable of expressing my emotions, but I loved it.This anecdote makes an important point: context matters.In my mind, I’d been noticed by the coach because of how quickly I could run. It 
This is the only part of the sport I understand. The bad bit.Should my rugby coach have used it while admonishing me, I wouldn’t have been so fond of it, and rightly so.There’s another important point, this asking-for-permission thing.I discussed this subject with an American buddy. He, too, had also observed that Norwegians don’t like nicknames. He theorized, like I had, that they interpreted all nicknames as demeaning. He also suspected that because permission hasn’t been asked, they’re taken aback by the assumption of it.But when you think about it, all names are like nicknames.No infant gets to choose their own name. I didn’t choose the name Daniel as much as I didn’t choose the name Tad.Our parents decide our names.We’re born, we’re given a name, and then we just along with it. Much like how nicknames are acquired. Only the latter are acquired later in life.And while you can make the claim that our parents have sole right to naming us, this smacks of being 
Read Kindle eBooks? Interested in trying one by this author but don’t want to part with your hard-earned cash for fear he’s as terrible at writing fiction as he is blog posts? Well today’s your lucky week! If you live in the US, you can download No Hitmen in Heaven for free. Get it today, while digital stocks last. Just click 
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