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Williams Companies Stock Climbs as Investors Focus on Gas…
2026 Could Be the Biggest Year for Private Markets Yet (From Darwin)
Williams Companies Stock Climbs as Investors Focus on Gas Demand
Written by Chris Markoch on February 11, 2026
Article Highlights
- Williams Companies reported mixed Q4 earnings, but both revenue and EPS were part of record full-year results.
- Strong long-term demand for natural gas from AI, LNG exports, and U.S. industrial reshoring supports the bullish thesis.
- WMB stock looks technically stretched, but the broader uptrend suggests the rally may not be over.
Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) stock is up about 1.8% in midday trading after the company reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings. The headline numbers were mixed.
Adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents came in 2 cents below the forecast of 57 cents. However, revenue of $3.2 billion was higher than the forecast of $3.1 billion.
Normally, results like that would send a stock lower, but both numbers were part of the company’s record results.
And when you’re breaking records, investors will give you leeway for not clearing a low bar.
It’s been a mixed season for energy stocks, particularly with the integrated big oil companies. However, Williams Companies is in the midstream sector.
Williams is responsible for transporting natural gas and natural gas liquids across the United States. In fact, the company delivers approximately 1/3 of the country’s natural gas.
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Investing in the Here and Now
Investors are frequently told to skate to where the puck is going. In the energy sector in 2026, that’s meant funding nuclear energy, which is back in favor. However, even with an administration looking to cut red tape, this story will take years to play out due to the regulatory hurdles that must be cleared.
The bullish thesis for Williams Company centers on demand for natural gas. In its Analyst Day presentation, the company cited a Wood Mackenzie North America Gas report that forecast a 35% increase in natural gas demand over the next decade. The three major catalysts will be:
- Industrialization: Demand will come from the reshoring of the U.S. energy-intensive manufacturing sectors.
- Power Generation: This will largely come from the energy required to power artificial intelligence (AI).
- LNG Growth: Williams is one of the largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is critical to many of the world’s economies.
Simply put, nuclear energy may be the future, and even oil may still have significant upside in 2026. But in the here and now—as well as the foreseeable future—natural gas is where the growth will be.
WMB Stock Looks Stretched, But May Not Be Done
WMB stock has broken out to new highs, riding a strong uptrend supported by both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The 50-day sits comfortably above the 200-day, and both are sloping higher, confirming the primary bullish trend. Price is also trading well above these key averages, signaling strong demand and a clear preference among investors to buy on modest dips rather than wait for deep pullbacks.
That said, the stock is beginning to look stretched. The relative strength index (RSI)—not shown—is near 70. That suggests the stock is getting into overbought territory. However, with the stock pushing to new 52-week highs and being supported at those levels, this could be a consolidation phase rather than a reversal in the bullish trend.
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A Less Favorable Risk-Reward Profile, But a Bullish Trend for WMB
It’s also important to note that WMB stock is now trading above its consensus price target. Although analysts remain bullish on the stock, it’s now within about 10% of the $76 price target issued by Jefferies on Feb. 3.
For investors, this creates a nuanced setup: the risk-reward profile for new positions is less favorable after such a strong run, but the underlying trend still argues against aggressively betting on a top. A constructive approach would be to respect the uptrend while acknowledging that the stock may need time to digest recent gains.
Pullbacks toward the rising 50-day moving average could offer more attractive entry points, while the 200-day moving average sits lower as a longer-term line in the sand for the bullish thesis. In other words, WMB looks overextended in the near term, but the technical backdrop suggests the move may not be over yet.
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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for February 17th
Medtronic’s “Textbook” Reversal: How High Can It Really Go in 2026?
Written by Thomas Hughes
Medtronic’s (NYSE: MDT) stock price is amid a textbook reversal, having formed a Head & Shoulders Pattern and broken to fresh highs, confirming the baseline as a critical pivot point. The question now is how high the stock might rise. The reversal is driven by an improving growth outlook, profitability, capital return, and market sentiment, which provides a solid support base in 2026.
Institutions and Analysts Buy Into Medtronic’s Growth Outlook
Institutions, representing the largest body of investment capital, own more than 80% of this stock and have been accumulating it for several quarters. MarketBeat data reveals a bullish balance for five consecutive quarters, a $2-to-$1 bias in favor of buyers, and buying activity ramping at year’s end 2025 and in early 2026, aligning with the stock price action. Assuming the bullish bias persists, MDT’s stock price has nowhere to go but up.
Analysts, representing private capital and, to a degree, retail market sentiment, rate this stock as a Moderate Buy. Analyst coverage has been increasing alongside an improving outlook, and the price target trend was bullish ahead of the fiscal Q3 (FQ3) release. (Note that Medtronic’s fiscal reporting period is behind the calendar year.)
Forecasting a 10% upside at the consensus and another 10% at the high end, the revision trends also align with the stock price action. While the FQ3 release and guidance update failed to catalyze a rally, the data aligned with expectations, which were driving an uptrend to begin with. The likely outcome is that analyst trends remain solid through the next quarter, underpinning price action.
The technical targets provide another convergence in the outlook. The price targets, now that the reversal pattern is confirmed, assume a movement equal to the range’s dollar magnitude as the base case and a percentage movement as the bull case. These targets put MDT stock in the range of $118-$124, nicely bracketing the high-end analyst target of $120. The only question is timing, and the charts suggest this move can happen before mid-year.
Medtronic Affirms Long-Term Growth Targets: Outperforms in FQ3
Medtronic had a solid quarter, with revenue of $9 billion outpacing consensus estimates by a slim margin. Strength was seen across the enterprise, with 6% organic growth compounded by foreign exchange tailwinds. Cardio was the strongest segment, up nearly 14% and 10.6% organically, followed by 8.3% organic growth in Diabetes, 2.7% in Medical Surgical, and 2.5% in Neurosciences.
Medtronic experienced margin pressures, especially from tariffs, but none were worse than expected. The net result was an adjusted operating margin of 24.1% and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.36. The adjusted EPS outpaced estimates by 150 basis points, suggesting forward guidance could be cautious. Medtronic’s guidance was reaffirmed, expecting revenue growth in the range of 5.5% and full-year adjusted EPS of $5.64 at the midpoint. The sticking point is that this guidance falls short of the consensus, but is easy to overlook given the slim, 1-cent miss.
More pertinent details include the long-term outlook, which is maintained, and the cash flow, which is sufficient to sustain the capital return. The capital return outlook includes dividendsand share repurchases, with the dividend yielding approximately 2.8% as of mid-February and repurchases reducing the count annually. Incentives for investors include a payout ratio of about 50% and a history of distribution increases, which has the company on track for Dividend King status this decade.
Medtronic: Many Catalysts in 2026
Medtronic stock has several catalysts that could drive it higher in 2026. Not only are critical segments, including Cardiovascular, experiencing accelerated growth, but new products and expanding approvals, such as the Symplicity Spyral RDN system and the Hugo robotic systems, are also driving business. Meanwhile, activists are pushing for operational changes.
The combined impact could result in outperformance in the company’s fiscal Q4, full-year 2025, and 2026, with expanding margins and improved capital returns.
Elliott Investment Management, which emerged as a major shareholder in 2025, seeks to improve efficiency, accelerate growth, and boost the stock valuation. Trading at 17X earnings, MDT stock is a bargain relative to average S&P 500 companies and med tech peers. Assuming an advance to align with averages, MDT stock could rise as many as five handles to trade near 22X earnings, a valuation suggesting a price point near $125. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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ServiceNow Insiders Buy as Wall Street Panics Over an AI SaaSpocalypse
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson
The “SaaSpocalypse” narrative has gripped Wall Street, dragging the software and tech sector down roughly 22% this year. The fear driving this sell-off is singular, terrifying, and easy to understand: artificial intelligence (AI) agents will automate white-collar work so effectively that businesses will no longer need to buy software licenses for human employees.
If an AI can do the job of three analysts, why pay for three software seats? This logic has led investors to dump shares of companies ranging from Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) to Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE), fearing their business models are evaporating.
But while the trading algorithms sell on fear, the insiders at ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) are buying with conviction.
In a mid-February strategic move, ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott executed a $3 million open-market purchase of his company’s stock. Even more significantly, key members of the executive team, including the CFO and Chief People Officer, simultaneously terminated their automated 10b5-1 trading plans.
While the market panics about an AI future without software, ServiceNow’s leadership is betting personal capital that the company is not the victim of AI, but its master.
Why Insiders Just Killed the Autopilot
To understand the weight of this move, investors must look past the headline purchase and focus on the legal mechanics. Most corporate executives use something called a 10b5-1 plan to sell stock. These are automated schedules set up months in advance, for example, sell 1,000 shares on the first of every month.
Executives use these plans for valid personal reasons: they are paid largely in stock, and they need to sell shares to diversify their personal wealth or pay taxes. These plans exist to protect executives from accusations of insider trading by putting their sales on autopilot, regardless of whether the company’s stock price is high or low.
Terminating these plans early is incredibly rare. It is a legally complex maneuver that often triggers cooling-off periods, preventing executives from setting up new sales plans for months. By cancelling these plans today, ServiceNow’s C-Suite has effectively removed the autopilot selling pressure from the market. They are signaling that they view the stock, currently trading near $105, down roughly 55% from its highs, as so severely undervalued that they refuse to sell even a single share.
This is a corporate put option. It suggests that management’s internal data contradicts the external market panic. Analysts at firms like Evercore ISI have already flagged this as a deliberate vote of confidence. When an entire management team stops selling and starts buying during a market crash, it usually marks a psychological and financial floor for the stock.
The AI Control Tower Defense Strategy
The market’s fear is rooted in seat compression. Investors worry that AI agents will shrink corporate headcounts, leading to fewer software subscriptions. ServiceNow’s counterargument is distinct: they are no longer just selling tools for humans; they are selling the governance layer for AI agents.
As enterprises deploy billions of autonomous agents, corporate IT environments will become chaotic. These digital workers need to be secured, audited, and managed. They need to be told what data they can access and what actions they are allowed to take. ServiceNow calls this strategy the AI Control Tower.
This strategy explains the company’s aggressive and controversial spending spree on mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
- Armis ($7.75 billion): This massive acquisition secures the Operational Technology (OT) segment. This refers to physical assets, such as factory robots, HVAC systems, and medical devices, that AI agents will increasingly interact with.
- Moveworks ($2.85 billion): This deal provides the sophisticated conversational interface that acts as the front door for employees to command these agents.
Critics have argued these acquisitions dilute shareholder value and add integration risk. However, the insider buying suggests that leadership views these assets as essential infrastructure. They are betting that as the business world grows more chaotic and automated, a centralized, secure platform like ServiceNow will become increasingly valuable. They aren’t buying a legacy software company; they are buying the regulatory infrastructure for the AI economy.
The Double Down: Buybacks and Margins
There is a stark gap between ServiceNow’s stock chart, which appears to show a crisis, and its financial statements, which appear to show a boom. While the share price has collapsed, the business is accelerating.
In the fourth quarter, subscription revenue grew 21% year over year to $3.47 billion. Even more impressive was the company’s efficiency; Free Cash Flow (FCF) margins hit a massive 57%. This paints a picture of a Rule of 50 company. In software investing, the Rule of 40 (Growth Rate + Profit Margin) is the gold standard for a healthy company. ServiceNow is exceeding the Rule of 50, meaning it is generating cash faster than it can spend it, even as it grows rapidly.
The Board of Directors has acknowledged this disconnect between price and performance by authorizing a new $5 billion share repurchase program. But they didn’t just authorize it; they triggered a $2 billion Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR) immediately.
This is a critical distinction. An authorization is just a promise; an ASR is an immediate execution. The company is aggressively buying back its own stock at these discounted levels. This mechanically boosts earnings per share (EPS) because there are fewer shares in circulation to divide the profits among.
From a valuation perspective, the math is compelling. The stock is trading in the $100-$107 range, while the median analyst price target sits at $192.This implies a potential upside of nearly 80% if market sentiment normalizes. Investors are currently pricing ServiceNow as if its growth were about to evaporate, even though the company’s guidance calls for continued ~20% revenue growth in 2026.
The Binary Bet
Investors today face a binary choice. One path is to believe the SaaSpocalypse narrative: that AI will render enterprise software obsolete faster than these companies can adapt, turning industry giants into value traps. The other path relies on hard financial data: accelerating revenue, massive cash-flow margins, and aggressive buying by the people who know the business best.
Bill McDermott, the former CEO of SAP and now the leader of ServiceNow, has a history of making bold calls that pay off. Betting against him when he puts his own money on the table has historically been a losing trade. The simultaneous termination of executive sales plans and the $3 million insider purchase suggest that the bottom is likely in. For investors willing to look past the panic headlines, ServiceNow offers a rare opportunity to buy a market leader at a crisis discount. The insiders have placed their bets; now the market must decide if it will follow. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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3 Under-the-Radar Earnings Surprises Could Signal a New Trend
Written by Dan Schmidt
Earnings season is winding down, and more than three-quarters of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their latest results. According to FactSet, roughly 74% of firms reporting so far have beaten analysts’ EPS estimates, and 73% have beaten revenue estimates.
While these overall numbers are within the five- and ten-year averages, the dispersion between winners and losers kept the aggregate earnings growth rate flat for the period. Many of last year’s success stories have underperformed in 2026, while some laggards have posted parabolic gains. Three companies whose earnings reports don’t typically garner headlines still warrant attention for the numbers in their most recent reports. Are these one-time standouts or the sign of a larger trend?
Applied Materials: Semiconductor Demand and Guidance Boost Power Double-Digit Gains
Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is probably the most “on-the-radar” stock here, with its $280 billion market cap and $28 billion in annual sales. But as a picks-and-shovels play in the semiconductor space, Applied Materials usually reports in the background while NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) or Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) steal the headlines. However, this most recent report warrants attention as AMAT shares soared 12% following the release, driven by strong guidance and equipment demand.
The company reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results on Feb. 12 and surpassed analysts’ estimates on both EPS and revenue, with earnings beating expectations by 7%. But the news that really excited investors came on the conference call when CEO Gary Dickerson projected 20% sales growth in calendar year 2026, a figure that exceeded even the most optimistic analyst projections. Most of the company’s revenue comes from its Semiconductor Systems division, which sells flash memory, logic manufacturing equipment, transistors, DRAM, and more. Dickerson projects Q2 revenue of approximately $7.65 billion, with continued rapid growth in the Applied Global Services division.
The target price increases came in fast and furious following the optimistic report, and it received two upgrades from Hold to Buy from Summit Insights and KGI Securities. The average price target of the 17 analysts who raised the stock is now $435, representing nearly 20% upside from current levels.
AMAT shares have been in an uptrend since September, when the price crossed over the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The 50-day SMA has been a strong support level for the stock ever since, providing a bumper whenever shares dip. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still under the Overbought threshold of 70 despite the big earnings bump, so this rally could have staying power.
Advance Auto Parts: Turnaround Efforts Starting to Show Results
Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) may finally be returning to investablity after losing more than 50% over the last five years. The last 12 months have been particularly tumultuous for the company (and the automotive sector as a whole), as it lost more than $10 per share in Q4 2024 and then faced a wave of tariff headwinds following the Trump administration’s transition. But CEO Shane O’Kelly has become relentlessly focused on cutting costs and getting “back to basics”, and these efforts are finally paying dividends.
Advance Auto Parts Q4 2025 resultsdefied even the most generous estimates. Revenue slightly beat analyst projections ($1.97 billion vs. $1.95 billion expected), but EPS of 86 cents per share was more than double the projected figure. Same-store sales actually grew 1% over the full year, and 17 underperforming locations were closed. The 2026 guidance also boosted the stock as management projects 1-2% comps, 45% gross margins, EPS between $2.40 and $3.10, and approximately $100 million in free cash flow generation.
Some profit-taking occurred following the earnings release since the stock had already risen nearly 50% since the start of the year. However, once the dust settles, the uptrend is likely to remain in place now that the share price has burst above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also indicates bullish activity, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line and then rising above the histogram during the breakout.
Rivian: Narrowing Losses Lead 2026 Catalysts
Friday the 13th was anything but scary for Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) as the company exceeded top- and bottom-line estimates in its Q4 2025 report. YOY revenue growth actually declined 25% due to the expiration of the EV tax credits, but sales figures still beat expectations, and the company’s loss narrowed to 66 cents per share.
The smaller losses were driven by a $5,500 increase in average vehicle selling price, while the cost of vehicles sold dropped by $9,500 on average. It marked the firm’s first year of gross profit, and the affordable midsize R2 model is expected to begin deliveries in Q2 2026. The company expects to sell between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles in 2026, the low end representing a 47% increase over 2025’s total.
RIVN shares gained 20% in a volatile session following the report, although it was down from the open. The stock now sits directly at the 50-day SMA, which had previously served as a support level when shares rallied at the end of 2025. A bullish MACD cross also indicates a favorable trend, but the company will likely need a successful R2 rollout to sustain this momentum. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Medtronic’s “Textbook” Reversal: How High Can It Really Go in 2026?
Written by Thomas Hughes
Medtronic’s (NYSE: MDT) stock price is amid a textbook reversal, having formed a Head & Shoulders Pattern and broken to fresh highs, confirming the baseline as a critical pivot point. The question now is how high the stock might rise. The reversal is driven by an improving growth outlook, profitability, capital return, and market sentiment, which provides a solid support base in 2026.
Institutions and Analysts Buy Into Medtronic’s Growth Outlook
Institutions, representing the largest body of investment capital, own more than 80% of this stock and have been accumulating it for several quarters. MarketBeat data reveals a bullish balance for five consecutive quarters, a $2-to-$1 bias in favor of buyers, and buying activity ramping at year’s end 2025 and in early 2026, aligning with the stock price action. Assuming the bullish bias persists, MDT’s stock price has nowhere to go but up.
Analysts, representing private capital and, to a degree, retail market sentiment, rate this stock as a Moderate Buy. Analyst coverage has been increasing alongside an improving outlook, and the price target trend was bullish ahead of the fiscal Q3 (FQ3) release. (Note that Medtronic’s fiscal reporting period is behind the calendar year.)
Forecasting a 10% upside at the consensus and another 10% at the high end, the revision trends also align with the stock price action. While the FQ3 release and guidance update failed to catalyze a rally, the data aligned with expectations, which were driving an uptrend to begin with. The likely outcome is that analyst trends remain solid through the next quarter, underpinning price action.
The technical targets provide another convergence in the outlook. The price targets, now that the reversal pattern is confirmed, assume a movement equal to the range’s dollar magnitude as the base case and a percentage movement as the bull case. These targets put MDT stock in the range of $118-$124, nicely bracketing the high-end analyst target of $120. The only question is timing, and the charts suggest this move can happen before mid-year.
Medtronic Affirms Long-Term Growth Targets: Outperforms in FQ3
Medtronic had a solid quarter, with revenue of $9 billion outpacing consensus estimates by a slim margin. Strength was seen across the enterprise, with 6% organic growth compounded by foreign exchange tailwinds. Cardio was the strongest segment, up nearly 14% and 10.6% organically, followed by 8.3% organic growth in Diabetes, 2.7% in Medical Surgical, and 2.5% in Neurosciences.
Medtronic experienced margin pressures, especially from tariffs, but none were worse than expected. The net result was an adjusted operating margin of 24.1% and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.36. The adjusted EPS outpaced estimates by 150 basis points, suggesting forward guidance could be cautious. Medtronic’s guidance was reaffirmed, expecting revenue growth in the range of 5.5% and full-year adjusted EPS of $5.64 at the midpoint. The sticking point is that this guidance falls short of the consensus, but is easy to overlook given the slim, 1-cent miss.
More pertinent details include the long-term outlook, which is maintained, and the cash flow, which is sufficient to sustain the capital return. The capital return outlook includes dividendsand share repurchases, with the dividend yielding approximately 2.8% as of mid-February and repurchases reducing the count annually. Incentives for investors include a payout ratio of about 50% and a history of distribution increases, which has the company on track for Dividend King status this decade.
Medtronic: Many Catalysts in 2026
Medtronic stock has several catalysts that could drive it higher in 2026. Not only are critical segments, including Cardiovascular, experiencing accelerated growth, but new products and expanding approvals, such as the Symplicity Spyral RDN system and the Hugo robotic systems, are also driving business. Meanwhile, activists are pushing for operational changes.
The combined impact could result in outperformance in the company’s fiscal Q4, full-year 2025, and 2026, with expanding margins and improved capital returns.
Elliott Investment Management, which emerged as a major shareholder in 2025, seeks to improve efficiency, accelerate growth, and boost the stock valuation. Trading at 17X earnings, MDT stock is a bargain relative to average S&P 500 companies and med tech peers. Assuming an advance to align with averages, MDT stock could rise as many as five handles to trade near 22X earnings, a valuation suggesting a price point near $125. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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ServiceNow Insiders Buy as Wall Street Panics Over an AI SaaSpocalypse
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson
The “SaaSpocalypse” narrative has gripped Wall Street, dragging the software and tech sector down roughly 22% this year. The fear driving this sell-off is singular, terrifying, and easy to understand: artificial intelligence (AI) agents will automate white-collar work so effectively that businesses will no longer need to buy software licenses for human employees.
If an AI can do the job of three analysts, why pay for three software seats? This logic has led investors to dump shares of companies ranging from Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) to Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE), fearing their business models are evaporating.
But while the trading algorithms sell on fear, the insiders at ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) are buying with conviction.
In a mid-February strategic move, ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott executed a $3 million open-market purchase of his company’s stock. Even more significantly, key members of the executive team, including the CFO and Chief People Officer, simultaneously terminated their automated 10b5-1 trading plans.
While the market panics about an AI future without software, ServiceNow’s leadership is betting personal capital that the company is not the victim of AI, but its master.
Why Insiders Just Killed the Autopilot
To understand the weight of this move, investors must look past the headline purchase and focus on the legal mechanics. Most corporate executives use something called a 10b5-1 plan to sell stock. These are automated schedules set up months in advance, for example, sell 1,000 shares on the first of every month.
Executives use these plans for valid personal reasons: they are paid largely in stock, and they need to sell shares to diversify their personal wealth or pay taxes. These plans exist to protect executives from accusations of insider trading by putting their sales on autopilot, regardless of whether the company’s stock price is high or low.
Terminating these plans early is incredibly rare. It is a legally complex maneuver that often triggers cooling-off periods, preventing executives from setting up new sales plans for months. By cancelling these plans today, ServiceNow’s C-Suite has effectively removed the autopilot selling pressure from the market. They are signaling that they view the stock, currently trading near $105, down roughly 55% from its highs, as so severely undervalued that they refuse to sell even a single share.
This is a corporate put option. It suggests that management’s internal data contradicts the external market panic. Analysts at firms like Evercore ISI have already flagged this as a deliberate vote of confidence. When an entire management team stops selling and starts buying during a market crash, it usually marks a psychological and financial floor for the stock.
The AI Control Tower Defense Strategy
The market’s fear is rooted in seat compression. Investors worry that AI agents will shrink corporate headcounts, leading to fewer software subscriptions. ServiceNow’s counterargument is distinct: they are no longer just selling tools for humans; they are selling the governance layer for AI agents.
As enterprises deploy billions of autonomous agents, corporate IT environments will become chaotic. These digital workers need to be secured, audited, and managed. They need to be told what data they can access and what actions they are allowed to take. ServiceNow calls this strategy the AI Control Tower.
This strategy explains the company’s aggressive and controversial spending spree on mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
- Armis ($7.75 billion): This massive acquisition secures the Operational Technology (OT) segment. This refers to physical assets, such as factory robots, HVAC systems, and medical devices, that AI agents will increasingly interact with.
- Moveworks ($2.85 billion): This deal provides the sophisticated conversational interface that acts as the front door for employees to command these agents.
Critics have argued these acquisitions dilute shareholder value and add integration risk. However, the insider buying suggests that leadership views these assets as essential infrastructure. They are betting that as the business world grows more chaotic and automated, a centralized, secure platform like ServiceNow will become increasingly valuable. They aren’t buying a legacy software company; they are buying the regulatory infrastructure for the AI economy.
The Double Down: Buybacks and Margins
There is a stark gap between ServiceNow’s stock chart, which appears to show a crisis, and its financial statements, which appear to show a boom. While the share price has collapsed, the business is accelerating.
In the fourth quarter, subscription revenue grew 21% year over year to $3.47 billion. Even more impressive was the company’s efficiency; Free Cash Flow (FCF) margins hit a massive 57%. This paints a picture of a Rule of 50 company. In software investing, the Rule of 40 (Growth Rate + Profit Margin) is the gold standard for a healthy company. ServiceNow is exceeding the Rule of 50, meaning it is generating cash faster than it can spend it, even as it grows rapidly.
The Board of Directors has acknowledged this disconnect between price and performance by authorizing a new $5 billion share repurchase program. But they didn’t just authorize it; they triggered a $2 billion Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR) immediately.
This is a critical distinction. An authorization is just a promise; an ASR is an immediate execution. The company is aggressively buying back its own stock at these discounted levels. This mechanically boosts earnings per share (EPS) because there are fewer shares in circulation to divide the profits among.
From a valuation perspective, the math is compelling. The stock is trading in the $100-$107 range, while the median analyst price target sits at $192.This implies a potential upside of nearly 80% if market sentiment normalizes. Investors are currently pricing ServiceNow as if its growth were about to evaporate, even though the company’s guidance calls for continued ~20% revenue growth in 2026.
The Binary Bet
Investors today face a binary choice. One path is to believe the SaaSpocalypse narrative: that AI will render enterprise software obsolete faster than these companies can adapt, turning industry giants into value traps. The other path relies on hard financial data: accelerating revenue, massive cash-flow margins, and aggressive buying by the people who know the business best.
Bill McDermott, the former CEO of SAP and now the leader of ServiceNow, has a history of making bold calls that pay off. Betting against him when he puts his own money on the table has historically been a losing trade. The simultaneous termination of executive sales plans and the $3 million insider purchase suggest that the bottom is likely in. For investors willing to look past the panic headlines, ServiceNow offers a rare opportunity to buy a market leader at a crisis discount. The insiders have placed their bets; now the market must decide if it will follow. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
The day the gold market broke (Ad)
On September 14th, 2023, something big happened that didn’t make the news. The price gap between London gold and Shanghai gold blew out to $120 an ounce. For years, that gap was a few dollars, maybe $5 or $10. A 20x jump in seconds isn’t a glitch, it’s the system breaking. Traders tried to buy gold in London to sell in Shanghai, but hit a wall. The London vaults were empty. Since that day, gold has hit 53 all-time highs. One stock is positioned to capture the bulk of this wealth transfer.SEE THE FULL STORY ON THIS OPPORTUNITY NOW.
3 Under-the-Radar Earnings Surprises Could Signal a New Trend
Written by Dan Schmidt
Earnings season is winding down, and more than three-quarters of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their latest results. According to FactSet, roughly 74% of firms reporting so far have beaten analysts’ EPS estimates, and 73% have beaten revenue estimates.
While these overall numbers are within the five- and ten-year averages, the dispersion between winners and losers kept the aggregate earnings growth rate flat for the period. Many of last year’s success stories have underperformed in 2026, while some laggards have posted parabolic gains. Three companies whose earnings reports don’t typically garner headlines still warrant attention for the numbers in their most recent reports. Are these one-time standouts or the sign of a larger trend?
Applied Materials: Semiconductor Demand and Guidance Boost Power Double-Digit Gains
Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is probably the most “on-the-radar” stock here, with its $280 billion market cap and $28 billion in annual sales. But as a picks-and-shovels play in the semiconductor space, Applied Materials usually reports in the background while NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) or Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) steal the headlines. However, this most recent report warrants attention as AMAT shares soared 12% following the release, driven by strong guidance and equipment demand.
The company reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results on Feb. 12 and surpassed analysts’ estimates on both EPS and revenue, with earnings beating expectations by 7%. But the news that really excited investors came on the conference call when CEO Gary Dickerson projected 20% sales growth in calendar year 2026, a figure that exceeded even the most optimistic analyst projections. Most of the company’s revenue comes from its Semiconductor Systems division, which sells flash memory, logic manufacturing equipment, transistors, DRAM, and more. Dickerson projects Q2 revenue of approximately $7.65 billion, with continued rapid growth in the Applied Global Services division.
The target price increases came in fast and furious following the optimistic report, and it received two upgrades from Hold to Buy from Summit Insights and KGI Securities. The average price target of the 17 analysts who raised the stock is now $435, representing nearly 20% upside from current levels.
AMAT shares have been in an uptrend since September, when the price crossed over the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The 50-day SMA has been a strong support level for the stock ever since, providing a bumper whenever shares dip. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still under the Overbought threshold of 70 despite the big earnings bump, so this rally could have staying power.
Advance Auto Parts: Turnaround Efforts Starting to Show Results
Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) may finally be returning to investablity after losing more than 50% over the last five years. The last 12 months have been particularly tumultuous for the company (and the automotive sector as a whole), as it lost more than $10 per share in Q4 2024 and then faced a wave of tariff headwinds following the Trump administration’s transition. But CEO Shane O’Kelly has become relentlessly focused on cutting costs and getting “back to basics”, and these efforts are finally paying dividends.
Advance Auto Parts Q4 2025 resultsdefied even the most generous estimates. Revenue slightly beat analyst projections ($1.97 billion vs. $1.95 billion expected), but EPS of 86 cents per share was more than double the projected figure. Same-store sales actually grew 1% over the full year, and 17 underperforming locations were closed. The 2026 guidance also boosted the stock as management projects 1-2% comps, 45% gross margins, EPS between $2.40 and $3.10, and approximately $100 million in free cash flow generation.
Some profit-taking occurred following the earnings release since the stock had already risen nearly 50% since the start of the year. However, once the dust settles, the uptrend is likely to remain in place now that the share price has burst above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also indicates bullish activity, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line and then rising above the histogram during the breakout.
Rivian: Narrowing Losses Lead 2026 Catalysts
Friday the 13th was anything but scary for Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) as the company exceeded top- and bottom-line estimates in its Q4 2025 report. YOY revenue growth actually declined 25% due to the expiration of the EV tax credits, but sales figures still beat expectations, and the company’s loss narrowed to 66 cents per share.
The smaller losses were driven by a $5,500 increase in average vehicle selling price, while the cost of vehicles sold dropped by $9,500 on average. It marked the firm’s first year of gross profit, and the affordable midsize R2 model is expected to begin deliveries in Q2 2026. The company expects to sell between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles in 2026, the low end representing a 47% increase over 2025’s total.
RIVN shares gained 20% in a volatile session following the report, although it was down from the open. The stock now sits directly at the 50-day SMA, which had previously served as a support level when shares rallied at the end of 2025. A bullish MACD cross also indicates a favorable trend, but the company will likely need a successful R2 rollout to sustain this momentum. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
BREAKING: Elon Makes a Quiet Shift That Changes Everything (Ad)
President Trump just approved two long-stalled mining projects tied to strategic U.S. minerals — including silver, which recently broke $68 after soaring 129% last year.
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BREAKING: Elon Makes a Quiet Shift That Changes Everything
President Trump just approved two long-stalled mining projects tied to strategic U.S. minerals — including silver, which recently broke $68 after soaring 129% last year.
So why should you care?
Because silver isn’t acting like a traditional metal anymore. It’s become essential for AI, energy, and defense… and demand is climbing faster than U.S. supply can keep up. When that happens, prices don’t rise slowly — they can reprice overnight.
>> See why this matters for your savings
And if your retirement accounts are tied to stocks or a dollar that’s been losing ground, shifts like this become even more important to understand.
>> Download Your Silver Info Guide
Moments like this don’t come often — and understanding what’s unfolding now could make all the difference in 2026.
Tuesday’s Bonus Story
Strategy Earnings Reveal the Real Risk Behind MSTR Stock
By Chris Markoch. Posted: 2/6/2026.
Key Takeaways
- Strategy’s quarterly results are dominated by Bitcoin accounting swings, not the performance of its software business.
- The company’s Bitcoin position is effectively debt-funded leverage, which can amplify gains — and losses — for shareholders.
- With Bitcoin below Strategy’s reported average purchase price, the stock’s risk profile looks closer to a leveraged Bitcoin bet than a traditional software play.
Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock is down a little over 2% after the company reported its fourth-quarter earnings following the close of markets on Feb. 5. The report highlighted a familiar theme for MSTR investors: quarterly results are increasingly driven by Bitcoin accounting rather than the company’s underlying software operations.
While Strategy continues to grow its analytics revenue at a steady, modest pace, headline numbers remain volatile because of changes in the value of its large Bitcoin holdings. That dynamic made the report look weak on the surface, even as the company reiterated its long-term Bitcoin-focused strategy.
Trump’s Hand-Written Letter Will Shock his Haters (Ad)
A former U.S. government advisor has released a new briefing examining potential policy developments heading into 2026 and how they could influence markets.
The presentation focuses on historical context, upcoming milestones, and why some analysts believe next year could mark a significant turning point for long-term investors. It’s designed to provide perspective and help readers understand what may be unfolding before it becomes widely discussed.View the full briefing here
Heading into earnings, analysts projected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $46.02, compared with an EPS loss of $3.03 in the prior year. Mainly because of realized Bitcoin losses, Strategy missed that forecast by a wide margin, posting a loss of $42.93 for the quarter.
What Every Investor Should Understand About Strategy
Strategy is not a software company any more than GameStop Inc. (NYSE: GME) is a video game retailer. Although the company began in software, it has pivoted to act primarily as a Bitcoin treasury.
In short, it’s a leveraged play on Bitcoin that also generates some software revenue. That’s an important distinction for investors to understand.
The company has amassed a sizable Bitcoin position. At the end of 2025, Strategy reported owning 713,502 Bitcoin at a total cost of $54.26 billion, with an average cost of $76,052 per Bitcoin — roughly 3% of the world’s Bitcoin supply.
Strategy’s Debt-Funded Bitcoin Bet Raises Leverage and Liquidation Risk
How Strategy financed those purchases is the larger issue. The company primarily financed Bitcoin acquisitions by issuing convertible debt in the form of secured notes.
The takeaway: Bitcoin is Strategy’s largest asset by far, but it’s funded largely with debt — in other words, the company is leveraged to Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin rises, the value of those holdings can increase faster than the debt, amplifying gains for shareholders. But if Bitcoin falls, losses are magnified — which is what we are seeing now.
It gets worse. As of this writing, Bitcoin tradesaround $63,169, about 16% below Strategy’s average purchase price.
Remember that while Strategy still runs a software business, it’s no longer the primary driver of the company’s valuation. And even if it were, the software sector has faced its own headwinds during the recent tech-sectorshakeout.
Additionally, the recently adopted GENIUS Act has helped legitimize Treasury-backed stablecoins. Some analysts argue that weakens Bitcoin’s transactional case and its positioning as a store of value.
That brings us to the elephant in the room: could the company be forced to sell Bitcoin? According to Polymarket, the odds of a forced sale are roughly 26%.
Strategy Stock Is Not for Every Investor
No matter how it’s framed, investing in Strategy is essentially investing in Bitcoin exposure.
More precisely, investors in Strategy are taking leveraged bets on Bitcoin. That can produce strong returns when Bitcoin rallies, as it did for much of 2024.
But when Bitcoin falls, as it has since late 2025, MSTR shares will likely slide further — the stock is down nearly 58% in the last three months.
Of course, gains and losses are unrealized until an investor sells. Those who believe Bitcoin will recover and who can hold through volatility may view the current decline as a buying opportunity.
For now, analysts still maintain a consensus price target on MSTR stock of $417.38, which would represent a roughly 290% gain from its closing price on Feb. 5. However, given the ongoing Bitcoin selloff, betting on MSTR increasingly resembles taking a high-stakes speculative wager — which is precisely why it represents asymmetric risk.
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February 2026 Newsletter!
October 2025 NEWSLETTER
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This Is What Cognitive Fatigue Really Feels Like
Scroll down for Today’s Recipe: Pound Cake
Hey there,
Cognitive fatigue doesn’t usually show up dramatically.
It shows up quietly.
You reread the same paragraph twice.
You lose your train of thought mid-sentence.
Simple decisions feel heavier than they should.
You feel “mentally tired” even when you’ve slept.
Most people ignore these signs.
But they’re often the brain’s early signal that it’s under strain.
And the earlier you support it, the easier everything feels.
Why modern life drains the brain faster than we realize
Your brain is constantly processing:
• notifications
• decisions
• emotional stress
• background worry
• poor sleep cycles
• constant stimulation
Over time, this cognitive load accumulates.
When demand exceeds support, the brain conserves energy.
That conservation can feel like:
• brain fog
• slower recall
• reduced concentration
• mid-afternoon crashes
• mental fatigue that doesn’t match your effort
This isn’t decline.
It’s overload.
Why pushing through doesn’t restore clarity
Most people respond to mental fatigue by forcing focus.
More caffeine.
More pressure.
More self-criticism.
That might create a short burst — but it doesn’t rebuild resilience.
Sustainable clarity comes from biological support.
What helps the brain feel steadier
Brain function improves when the body receives:
• stable energy supply
• reduced inflammatory stress
• nervous system balance
• targeted nutrient support
When these foundations are in place, clarity feels smoother — not forced.
How Vitaae supports brain health gently
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If you’ve noticed subtle shifts in clarity or follow-through, Vitaae may be a helpful place to start.
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Today’s Recipe: Pound Cake
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Walmart Is 77% Overvalued and the Cracks Are Showing
Don here…
Walmart trades at a 45 PE ratio. Its earnings grow at 2.5% a year. Its net margin is 3.26%. Brandon Chapman pulled up the numbers this morning and called it the new AI stock. He was not being kind.
Price to book is 10.82 against a historical median of 4.82. Price to sales tells the same story. By almost every measure, Walmart is 75% overvalued.
Today, it started cracking.
In today’s free session replay, you’ll discover:
- Why the defensive rotation trade is running out of room. Traders piled into staples and utilities as a safety play. Brandon showed that Walmart’s valuation has no historical precedent. Investors sold it today and rotated into financials and industrials.
- The volatility trap that’s punishing every directional trader. The S&P is stuck in a 3% range while the VIX prices in a 5-10% correction. Options cost more, but the market moves less. Brandon compared it to pre-Lehman 2008, when the VIX seemed high but was actually low relative to what came next.
- Why junk bonds are diverging from the rest of the credit market.Treasuries rallied. Investment grade rallied. High yield did not. Brandon flagged widening risk spreads in HYG as a warning that credit stress is building beneath the surface.
- The invisible wall of institutional put buying building in the market.Someone bought $2.8 million in Google puts. Another institution loaded 20,000 contracts on VFC. QQQ saw 19,000 put contracts in a single trade. Brandon tracked it all through the Ghost Prints console and explained why it creates downside gravity once the range breaks.
The market looks calm on the surface. A 3% range does not feel dangerous. But the options market is telling a different story. Institutions are positioning for downside and the accumulated gamma is sitting there like a loaded spring.
Brandon has been watching this pattern build for weeks. Eventually the range breaks. When it does, the selling pressure from all that put activity compounds on itself.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
PS: Brandon tracked $2.8 million in Google puts. 20,000 contracts on VFC. 19,000 put contracts on QQQ in a single trade. That is not noise. That is institutional positioning you cannot see on a chart. The Ghost Prints console catches this order flow before it shows up in price. When the range finally breaks, all that gamma unwinds at once.
👉 Join Brandon tomorrow at 2PM EST and see what he is tracking live. SAVE YOUR SPOT
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