RJ Hamster
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RJ Hamster
This Is the Real Energy Story
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
Is this a 20-year ‘not war’?… There’s more than oil in the strait… ‘We’re running out of $60 oil’… Oil is worthless without refineries… Navy tanker escorts? Not yet…
Is the U.S. at war with Iran?
It sounds like a simple enough question.
But the U.S. Constitution says our military isn’t supposed to go to war unless Congress approves it, and that hasn’t happened.
Still, the executive branch of our government has a history of ignoring this apparent inconvenience.
And it’s worth pointing out that Congress never declared war on Korea, Vietnam, or Afghanistan (among other modern military engagements). That didn’t stop these conflicts from being drawn out and costing many American lives.
So the question for investors today isn’t “Are we at war with Iran?” It’s “What does a longer conflict in Iran mean for investors?”
The “war” certainly has the potential to impact portfolios this year – and maybe even longer term.
Since the U.S. began its attacks on Iran two weeks ago, the market has been choppy as oil and gas prices have risen.
So the conflict has important implications for energy stocks, which, as I (Dan Ferris) told you last week, could be “the trade of the year… maybe of the decade.” However, as I’ll explain today, the war is not the real driver of that trend.
But before we get to that, let’s look at another commodity the war is driving up…
Oil and gas aren’t the only important commodities that move through the Strait of Hormuz…
Last Friday, I mentioned the four ingredients of modern living: cement, steel, plastic, and ammonia (for fertilizer).
Various estimates suggest roughly half the world’s population is fed by food grown with nitrogen-based fertilizers (and this nitrogen is produced from ammonia).
Roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. About half of global seaborne sulfur trade passes through the strait, as does nearly 50% of global urea exports. Roughly 90% of sulfur demand is used for sulfuric acid, 60% of which is used to make fertilizers. Urea is also used to make fertilizers.
With the strait closed, prices are already rising. For example, the price of urea is up 35% this year.
Fertilizer stocks have also done very well lately, with three of the biggest names – CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS), and Nutrien (NTR) – up between 30% and 75% so far this year. We’re up nearly 70% on our fertilizer stock position in The Ferris Report.
A prolonged war could push these stocks even higher as global fertilizer prices adjust to a diminishing global supply. So there’s opportunity for traders to profit here.
Then there’s oil and gas…
Even without the war, we’re facing a longer-term global supply shortage of oil and gas. That’s what most concerns folks in the industry. As a respondent to a Dallas Fed energy industry survey commented:
The U.S. isn’t running out of oil, but she sure is running out of $60 per barrel oil. $100 per barrel? $150 per barrel? Price likely must cover for less-than-optimal geology over time.
“Less-than-optimal geology” means the world’s easier-to-extract oil resources are in decline. That will likely result in higher prices.
You see, since 2019, most of the investment in oil and gas production – nearly 90% of it – hasn’t gone into growing global oil production. It has simply gone into offsetting production declines. The International Energy Agency (“IEA”) describes the situation this way: “The global oil and gas industry needs to run fast to stand still.”
In a September 2025 report, the IEA covered many aspects of falling oil and gas supply. From the report:
Filling the remaining supply gap to maintain today’s production through to 2050 would require annual discoveries of 10 billion barrels of oil and around 1,000 [billion cubic meters] of natural gas. These amounts are just above what has been discovered annually in recent years.
In other words, we need more oil and gas than what has been discovered in the past several years. Neil Atkinson of the National Center for Energy Analytics wrote of the IEA’s findings:
The report indicates that upstream investment in oil and gas has fallen sharply in recent years and warns that sustaining production will require hundreds of billions of dollars in annual investment.
The IEA report also noted that production from U.S. shale wells declines faster than production from conventional oil and gas wells. In short, the global energy industry needs to find large new sources of conventional production.
A decline in lower-cost resources plus falling investment is a recipe for a supply crunch…
So far, I’ve been talking about the upstream portion of the industry, where new oil wells are discovered, developed, and put into production. But that isn’t the only area facing a massive supply shortfall. In the U.S., we’re also running into a shortage of refining capacity.
America’s supply of refined products like diesel fuel is contracting just as 5,400 data centers are creating a robust new source of demand – 95% of these centers use diesel backup generators.
And diesel fuel can’t just sit there. It goes bad like milk. It must be replaced every six to 12 months. Not only that, but the generators must be run once a month, or they’ll get clogged and won’t start up when the power grid fails.
As I told Ferris Report subscribers in December:
Just as the proliferation of data centers introduces a brand-new, price-inelastic source of demand for diesel, supply of the fuel has started to dwindle…
Global chemical giant LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) permanently shut down its 268,000-barrel-per-day Houston refinery in the first quarter of [2025]. It was Houston’s oldest refinery, originally built in 1918…
Phillips 66 (PSX) has closed its 139,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Wilmington, California (near Los Angeles)…
And California is expected to lose more refining capacity due to burdensome regulations…
Refinery giant Valero Energy said [last] April that it will close its 170,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Benicia, California (near San Francisco) by April 2026. The company attributed the decision to “years of regulatory pressure, significant fines for air quality violations, and a recent lawsuit settlement related to environmental concern.”
In the coming years, expect more permanent oil refinery capacity destruction in California, as the state government seems to be trying to make it impossible to turn a profit by refining and selling gasoline.
The two stocks I recommended to take advantage of what’s happening in the onshore-refining industry are both up around 40% in less than three months.
When Valero closes its Benicia refinery next month, it will reduce California’s refining capacity by 9%. Less production of such a critical resource will lead to higher margins for existing refineries. That will send those two stocks even higher. I expect them to double or triple over the next couple of years.
You probably don’t think about refining capacity very often…
But it’s one of the most critical pieces of infrastructure in the modern world.
You can’t run your car – or much else – on crude oil. Our transportation, construction, agriculture, and mining industries – plus our military – all run primarily on diesel fuel. Diesel moves goods and powers big pieces of equipment. So without refining capacity, the economy dies.
So, as I said last week, energy demand isn’t the thing you need to worry about. It’s supply. Our demand for things like oil, gas, and diesel fuel isn’t going away anytime soon, no matter what you’ve heard some politician or environmentalist say.
The combination of underinvestment in oil and gas, declining well production, and shrinking refining capacity could become a major societal issue.
A shrinking supply of something that’s perpetually in high demand will lead to higher prices. We’re seeing that today, with the Iran war set to shrink the global oil supply. Oil was below $60 per barrel in mid-December. It hit $120 briefly after the war began and is now in the high-$90s.
If oil hits $100 and stays there long enough, it’ll start to create a real energy price shock in the global economy. If oil goes to $120 and stays there long enough, a recession becomes more likely.
And while nobody knows the future, the war has the potential to drag on.
Iran and its allies can do a lot of damage to the oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region with relatively inexpensive weapons. You could probably shut down a refinery with a couple of well-placed hand grenades or other small explosive devices. You could also do major damage to an oil tanker.
In a Truth Social post on March 3, President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to begin providing political risk insurance and guarantees for all maritime shipping through the Persian Gulf. He also said the U.S. would begin escorting tankers soon.
But that’s doubtful. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said yesterday in a CNBC interview that Navy escorts “can’t happen now.” He continued:
We’re simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities.
It reminds me of a moment in one of the older “Star Trek” films when Spock, feeling pressured to produce results during an impending crisis, uncharacteristically tells Kirk, “One damn minute, Admiral.”
Retired French Navy Vice Admiral Pascal Ausseur told the Associated Press more bluntly that “sending warships or civilian vessels into the Strait of Hormuz would be suicidal.”
Even if the Iran war ends soon and tankers are once again free to sail the strait, the long-term supply picture still stands.
Investors have been buying the S&P 500 and their favorite mega-cap tech stocks on dips for years now. That strategy, which I outlined in a recent essay, had worked gangbusters until very recently. Now, the mega caps are underperforming. And last year’s losers – energy stocks – are rising.
In sum, no matter how long this war lasts, energy stocks are just getting started. So use any opportunities to buy these stocks on dips.
Recommended Links:
The Man Who Made $4.6 Million in 24 Hours Issues New Warning
Ken Fisher says it’s “too weird and mystical,” and NPR dubs it “voodoo science.” But Greg Diamond – who has identified 41 chances to double your money or better – says this obscure strategy is critical to making money from market volatility. As the U.S.-Iran conflict deepens, Greg can show you how to leverage this strategy in your trading account. Click here for more details.
Jeff Brown has personally witnessed at least five major tech disruptions. These disruptors soared 2,150% and even 7,500%. And his bearish calls fell 65%, 69%, 98%, and 99.5%. Now, Jeff believes Nvidia is about to trigger the biggest disruption yet – and he has come up with a unique way to prepare. Click here for more details.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/12/26): BAE Systems (BAESY), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BP (BP), CF Industries (CF), Simplify Managed Futures Strategy Fund (CTA), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chevron (CVX), EOG Resources (EOG), Equinor (EQNR), EQT (EQT), K+S (KPLUY), Liberty Energy (LBRT), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI), Valero Energy (VLO), and State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).
A quiet mailbag today… As always, send your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
Good investing,
Dan Ferris
Medford, Oregon
March 13, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,349.9%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,297.1%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08798.9%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09782.6%Retirement MillionaireSII
Sprott01/11/18735.2%Extreme ValueGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16648.6%Retirement MillionaireWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12638.6%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryCIEN
Ciena10/20/22606.8%Stansberry Innovations ReportALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09575.4%Extreme ValueHSY
Hershey12/07/07556.4%Stansberry’s Investment Advisory
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,777.0%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,723.3%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,010.4%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21643.1%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21598.7%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility.
RJ Hamster
Weekly Alerts Recap
March 13, 2026 | Unsubscribe
Hello!
This past week delivered one notable winner, which has rallied +11% so far in two days.
March is beginning to show increased volatility as global events move markets. Periods like this can create additional opportunities in small cap stocks for both short-term and long-term investors.
We are incredibly grateful for your trust, engagement, encouragement and support as we continue working to identify new opportunities and more winners for you.
As always, our focus is to alert opportunities with upside potential and review outcomes honestly.
This Week’s Alerts
Tuesday’s alert rallied +7% early in the session, but the move was unable to hold and did not provide sustainable upside.
Wednesday’s alert did not present upside opportunity. We communicated that outcome transparently at the time, as not every setup develops as expected.
Thursday’s alert opened at 0.81 and rallied to a high of 0.90 on Friday, delivering an +11% move so far. We remain excited about the opportunity for bigger gains and are monitoring it closely for momentum to build.
A Quick Reminder
Our focus remains to alert opportunities with strong sustainable upside, but markets rarely move in a straight line.
Some alerts accelerate immediately, others develop gradually, and a few simply do not materialize.
Small cap stocks can be volatile, and that volatility is what creates opportunity.
To improve your odds of success, always trade with a plan.
Define your stop levels, set clear profit targets, and watch key technical signals such as moving averages, prior highs and lows, and open or close levels that may act as support or resistance.
Looking Ahead to Next Week
We are monitoring several developing NASDAQ and NYSE names, and a few are showing the type of momentum and opportunity that has preceded some of our strongest alerts.
Next week could bring multiple new opportunities worth paying attention to.
Stay ready. New alerts are coming soon, and thank you for being part of the community.
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See you soon!
SmallCapStocks Team
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The IPO is a Trap
March 13, 2026
When Elon’s SpaceX IPO officially hits — which could be just days from now — two things will happen.
Elon’s 40% stake will immediately earn him around $625 billion in new wealth. Then millions of small investors will buy SpaceX’s stock, hoping to strike it rich.
Unfortunately, many of them will be disappointed.
That’s why I’m urging you to take advantage of this pre-IPO SpaceX play while you still can.
Sincerely,
Tim Bohen
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RJ Hamster
I Un-Rigged the Game
March 13, 2026 
My friends,
By now you know the game is rigged…
And that the financial “news” on television hurts you more than it helps you.
By the time you hear about a “great opportunity,” the insiders have already made their millions and moved on.
They get the information first. That is how the rich stay rich.
I have found a way to un-rig the game:
He sees the moves before they happen…
And will prove it to you by giving you his next stock pick for free here.
This is the only way to win a rigged game.
Click Here to Get the Information First and Claim Your Free Ticker
Robert Kiyosak
P.S. Information is the most valuable asset in the world. I am giving you a piece of it today for free. Grab your free stock ticker now.
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RJ Hamster
Triple Witching Meets $100 Oil
Friday, March 13, 2026
Click Here to access TheoTRADE’s Volatility Super Bundle
Don here…
The S&P 500 is down 5% from its highs. That sounds dramatic until you realize we haven’t seen a single day of real panic selling.
Friday’s advance decline line came in at fifty-fifty. You don’t capitulate until you correlate, and we are nowhere close.
Oil just closed at its highs, reaching for $100 a barrel. The dollar is breaking out above 100 for the first time in three years. Bonds are getting clobbered, which means rates are climbing.
Rising oil, a surging dollar, and higher interest rates create a toxic combination for the economy. The 25% recession probability the street is pricing in looks way too low.
Meanwhile, the financials are absorbing real damage. The XLF is down 11%. Deutsche Bank has dropped 26% on private credit exposure.
Private credit is the piece most people are ignoring. Firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl are cutting off or limiting redemptions on funds holding illiquid debt instruments. Investors who need cash and can’t get it from those funds will sell whatever they can, whether that’s stocks or Bitcoin. The domino effect is already starting.
The mega caps have barely flinched. Nvidia is trading in the same range it held back in July. Broadcom and Google are essentially untouched.
That is exactly the problem. If this sell-off deepens, the big market caps are where the next wave of selling will come from.
Volatility futures are inverted by 70 cents between the front month and May. The market is pricing extreme near-term risk with an assumption that things calm down later.
In tonight’s video, I break down the exact levels and setups heading into what could be a massive week:
- The SPX expected move this week was $224. Actual move was just $110. The market didn’t even get close to either edge.
- Next week brings a Fed announcement and triple witching with a $210 expected move baked in.
- Oil is closing at its highs and threatening $100 a barrel heading into a weekend loaded with geopolitical risk.
- I detail the specific spread trades that produced winners this week, including a 100% gain on Toll Brothers and profitable positions in IBIT and Microsoft.
- I explain why names like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Google sitting at these levels represent the next leg of opportunity.
Nobody wanted to go home long on a Friday afternoon with this much risk on the table. Next week, with triple witching and the Fed converging, the real fireworks could finally arrive.
Click here to watch me break down next week’s setup and the trades I’m positioning around
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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RJ Hamster
An Exciting Moment for the Nuclear Fusion Industry
An Exciting Moment for the Nuclear Fusion Industry
Jeff Brown, Editor,
The Bleeding Edge
Before we get into today’s AMA, I want to thank everyone who joined me for yesterday’s urgent briefing.
Thousands of you tuned in to hear about NVIDIA’s big announcement that I believe will have a significant impact on the markets…
We’ve seen similar announcements from NVIDIA have a substantial impact on both popular tech stocks and smaller, pretender “AI” companies as well.
It’s important we don’t make the mistake of assuming that because an AI company is popular, it is infallible. We’ve seen a number of popular tech stocks take a major hit this year.
That is partially in response to the incredible pace of development in aspects of artificial intelligence… And it is partially rooted in panic.
Just look at what’s happened recently with the declines across the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry.
AI will absolutely reshape and disrupt every industry and job, resulting in major restructurings. Some companies will disappear entirely and go under. But much of the fear that we’re seeing right now in some companies is overblown.
It’s something senior analyst Nick Rokke and I explored earlier this week in The Truth About the “AI Fear Trade”…
Here at Brownstone Research, we deeply understand that AI advancements will transform the global economy. Entire business models will be dismantled. Middlemen will disappear. Labor productivity will surge. Margins will compress in some areas and explode in others.
That part is not up for debate.
However, what we’re seeing now isn’t disciplined forward-looking analysis. It’s panic.
The “AI Fear Trade” has turned into a sell-first, ask-questions-later stampede. Investors are dumping anything that might be exposed to automation risk.
We saw this first in software. The financial media recently labeled it the “SaaS-pocalypse.”
Personally, I’ve been calling for the death of SaaS since the summer of 2023. At that point, it was clear that the traditional per-seat SaaS model was vulnerable. If one AI system can do the work of five employees, why keep paying for five licenses?
That’s rational. And the market has responded accordingly.
While I maintain that the “AI Fear Trade” is largely overblown, that doesn’t mean there won’t be market shocks along the way.
And I suspect one such moment is coming next week when Nvidia takes center stage on March 16… a culling that’s going to hit the sort of companies I’ve been warning my readers to steer clear of for years…
The ones who were too slow to adopt and adapt, the speculative hype plays, and the pretenders masquerading as artificial intelligence companies that believe riding the coattails of successful AI companies is as simple as tacking an “AI” onto their name.
But it’s also going to affect the seemingly “untouchable” tech darlings where we’re already starting to see cracks form in the foundations… it just hasn’t become obvious yet.
Fortunately, my team and I have a plan in place for when the culling begins… we’ve identified a handful of smaller companies particularly well-positioned to survive and thrive through both this disruption and any other curveballs this AI boom might throw our way.
History’s pattern is clear. Every technological revolution creates a group of dominant infrastructure winners, platform operators, and ecosystems that benefit tremendously.
Think the groundbreakers in industries like agentic AI automation and AI-powered biotech that, a few years down the line, folks will wish they’d known about sooner.
Beyond that, we’ve also spotlighted a stack of toxic AI tech stocks that should be avoided at all costs… which includes a couple of names I believe will come as a surprise to many.
I’m explaining all of this because if you missed yesterday’s briefing, there’s still time to prepare.
NVIDIA’s big announcement is coming next Monday, March 16… and our replay is still available to view for a short while longer.
If you want to learn more, you can go here to catch it.
Have a great weekend.
Jeff
Paving the Way for a Better Future
Thanks for the thoughtful article. It will be interesting to hear your thoughts on this follow-up series of questions related to some real-world actualities.
Many people in the U.S. cannot address a $400 emergency that arises because they have no savings. These same people often (removing those who are relatively high earners but even higher spenders) have limited resilience. The likelihood that these people will carve out resources for investment and have the wherewithal to select the right places for investment is small.
These are also people who are likely to have their jobs lost and a limited ability to find a career that will offer any semblance of a comfortable life. What percentage do you think this represents in the U.S., and how would you address this challenge?
There are also concerns about Generative AI and its ability to level the playing field for those who create in the arts (i.e., painters, writers, etc.). Do you envision this accelerating the plight of the starving artist?
To get a little into politics, not quite right vs left, but more extreme right vs extreme left. Trump was initially elected in 2016 because he connected with the forgotten members of the (lower) middle class with the promise of opportunity.
My belief is that the majority (but not super-majority) of Americans are fiscally conservative and socially conscious. This explains a good bit of the generosity of many Americans.
A big challenge is the notion that the worst place to invest a dollar is the U.S. government because of the inefficiencies and wasteful spending. Any dollar sent will be administered down to fifty cents and then applied to an ineffective program.
As AGI accelerates, more people will feel like forgotten members of the United States. These people may believe the only solution lies in Socialism (Mamdani election in NYC), with the fundamental flaws of production, funding, and human greed.
My sense as a Libertarian is that I only really wanted three things out of the Federal Government: national defense, a common currency, and interstate roads. As things progress and large swaths of the current population feel worthless or hopeless (this is the PHQ-2 screen for depression) would you envision that the Federal Government has to play a role in providing ‘wealth’ to those incapable of generating it themselves?
Would you potentially envision centralizing investments by the Federal or State Governments into the technologies you report on to support the citizens who have limited potential to support themselves?
How would you segregate this from socialism, as one of the biggest risks is advocating the “progressive agenda,” which mathematically is regression to the mean?
This squashes creativity and the drive for success, as those who are successful have their successes taken from them so they “have exactly the same as everyone else.”
Any thoughts?
– Jeff L.
Hi Jeff,
You’ve raised some very heavy topics here. So heavy that it’s difficult to do these topics justice in our weekly AMA.
They speak to ideology, political philosophy, the willingness (or not) for individuals to be self-accountable and self-responsible, and this idea held by some that they are entitled to a certain lifestyle, and a portion of what others have earned through hard work.
Paying taxes to the U.S. government now is a particularly painful exercise. If we’ve learned anything over the last several years, it’s that the scale of government fraud in the U.S. is simply mind-blowing.
If we remember back to last year when Elon Musk launched the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), many people thought that he was crazy with his estimations about the scale of the fraud that had been taking place. The team at DOGE has made incredible progress, with an estimated savings of $215 billion to date through their efforts.
But this is just the tip of the iceberg. Politicians in D.C. were routing taxpayer dollars into non-governmental organizations, which were then using those funds to facilitate things like illegal immigration and violent protests around the country.
And as we’ve seen in Minnesota, we have systematic fraud with fake day care centers and health care clinics.
In California, we have seen massive fraud in Medicare, EBT, and even hospice fraud. New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Ohio, Illinois, and on and on. It is at the national level and at the state level. It’s systematic and almost always designed to buy a certain kind of vote, and also enrich those who intentionally implemented these systems to facilitate the fraud.
For those who have spent the time to understand the scale of the theft, I doubt anyone would feel good about paying into a system like this. It makes me sick to my stomach.
The fraud needs to be cleaned up, those who enabled and committed the fraud should be prosecuted, and the information must be made public so that everyone knows there are consequences. Now is the time to clean it up.
It’s easy to feel like there is no way to make a change. It’s all so overwhelming. And it all seems so negative. But there is reason for us to be optimistic.
This is the first time that the cover has been lifted, and there is momentum to clean up the fraud on a multitrillion-dollar scale. Just imagine, if the fraud can be cleaned up, there is the potential to eliminate the fiscal deficit.
I’m in complete agreement that a smaller government is a good thing. Economic well-being through clear and business-friendly regulations, rule of law, protection of property, and freedom of speech lifts an entire country. Socialism, and communism for that matter, are failed experiments that always end badly. It may take a long time, but in the end, it always collapses on itself due to massive debts.
To your point, one area where there should be government support is for those who are unable to care for themselves (special needs, severely injured, veterans, etc.). Those who are capable but unwilling to work should not be the government’s (or the taxpayers’) responsibility.
Ironically, policies that facilitate economic growth have the largest positive impact at the population level. It creates opportunity, increases GDP/capita, and improves overall quality of life for a country’s citizens. This approach is far better than facilitating handouts and dependency.
Today, about a third of the population doesn’t have the savings to cover a $400 emergency expense with cash. The chart below was from a 2024 Federal Reserve report analyzing the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2023.
The numbers have improved a bit since then, as inflation is under control now and gas prices have dropped significantly (except for the short-term spike caused by the conflict with Iran), as have the prices of many daily necessities.
U.S. Households That Could Cover a $400 Emergency Expense Using Cash (%)
Source: Federal Reserve
With a U.S. national debt of $38.8 trillion and growing, there is seemingly no way out of this mess. I hear from many people things like “why bother?” Or “there’s no way out,” or “there’s nothing we can do about it,” or the classic progressive stance that “debt doesn’t matter.”
Of course, those are all nonsensical positions. There must be a concerted effort to eliminate fiscal deficits, eliminate fraud, become more efficient (using technology), and effectively buy time for what’s coming.
Artificial intelligence and robotics are going to save the day. They will not only help address the debt/GDP issue, but they’ll also lift up the entire population with an improved quality of life. There will soon be no barriers to a high-quality education and great healthcare thanks to technology. And the price of goods and services will eventually distill down to the cost of electricity needed for the production/delivery of those goods and services.
Through my own analysis, intelligent humanoid robots will be capable of replicating themselves by late 2028/early 2029. All these robots will need are raw materials and electricity to get the work done. And by 2030, we will have artificial superintelligence (ASI).
All of these changes are happening in less than five years. Economic growth will exceed 10%, and job opportunities will be everywhere for those willing to take them. It may require moving to where the jobs are and/or retraining for what’s needed, but there will be work.
And in 10 years or so, there will be tens of millions of humanoid robots in the U.S. alone performing economically valuable activities. Goods and services will be far cheaper, and the demographic that today doesn’t have $400 in savings will be in far better shape as the cost of living declines.
Elon Musk even goes so far as to say, “Don’t worry about squirreling money away for retirement in 10 or 20 years, it won’t matter.” I don’t like that comment. It’s reckless and not entirely true.
He’s right in that we won’t have to work nearly as hard, and everyone will have access to a higher quality of goods and services. But if we want to live a better life, we’ll still need capital to pay for land, electricity, and leisure activities.
The bigger, existential issue that you raise is, in a world like this – where we no longer have to work 40, 50, 60, 80-hour weeks – how will people find meaning in life?
How will people become motivated to build, create, be productive, and do something meaningful with their lives in a world with abundance?
That’s a hard one to answer. Unfortunately, most won’t. At a population level, most take the path of least resistance. They take the comfortable route, not the hard one that could deliver greater benefits long term. But the quality of their lives will still be better because of the abundance that has been created through the development of technology.
As for their character, that will be left to each individual to answer.
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General Fusion SPAC
Hi, I am an all-in member with Jeff and Brownstone Research.
For the mailbag or a SPAC service he runs, I would love to hear Jeff’s take on General Fusion going public via SPAC.
– Mike L.
Hi Mike,
It’s great that you saw the news on General Fusion.
I’ve been an investor in General Fusion since early 2020, so it’s a company I’m very familiar with and bullish on. That’s the reason that I will not be able to make any recommendations on General Fusion, as we have a no-conflict-of-interest policy at Brownstone Research.
I have been predicting that we would see at least two nuclear fusion companies go public in 2026, and General Fusion will be the first via its merger with a SPAC. This is an exciting moment in the fusion industry, and many other fusion companies will follow in the next 24 – 36 months…
General Fusion is a great candidate to lead the way, as I see it as one of the best fusion companies that has a clear path towards commercialization. General Fusion uses a magnetized target fusion (MTF) approach to nuclear fusion.
This approach uses mechanical compression through the use of pistons to create the conditions in the plasma for nuclear fusion. This is done using short pulses, over and over again to produce limitless clean energy.
Magnetized Target Fusion | Source: General Fusion
The benefit of this approach is that you do not need lasers, nor do you need superconducting magnets to create and control a fusion plasma.
This will likely result in clean energy production at a cost per megawatt hour that is less than nuclear fission, coal, natural gas, solar, and wind. The best of both worlds.
There are so many approaches to nuclear fusion right now. This excites me because every possible technical iteration is being iterated upon. They’ll all be able to create a fusion reaction, but the real question is which approaches will become the most economically viable?
General Fusion is one of the most promising companies in the industry, and the IPO will give the company additional capital to lean into its mission towards commercialization. It will still take a few more years, but the path is clear.
I expect that General Fusion’s IPO will be great for the industry. It will raise awareness and excitement in the sector.
But one word of caution, nuclear fusion and nuclear fission companies working on SMRs are essentially pre-product revenue companies. It will be years before they will be generating revenue from their technology (fusion reactors).
NuScale (SMR) is a great example as a next-gen nuclear fission company. It also went public via a SPAC in 2022. It was early for NuScale, and the stock suffered for the first couple of years, but the company moved sharply higher under the pro-nuclear regulations of the Trump administration, sending the stock well above $50.
5-Year Chart of NuScale (SMR)
But in the last several months, SMR has fallen back down almost to its IPO price of $10 a share. It has been a rough ride, and it is still richly valued.
Stocks like these that are early in their journey tend to be best traded when there are large institutional inflows. Volatility is expected. And SMR will almost certainly have to hold a secondary offering in the next couple of years to raise additional capital.
This is not a long-term “set it and forget it” kind of stock. It needs to be tracked, followed, and traded until it reaches the stage where it is generating free cash flow.
Regardless, nuclear energy will continue to be a keen focus at Brownstone Research for years to come. This is going to be a massive year for both small modular reactors and fusion reactor technology.
Combined, these two technologies will lead to a future of cheap, limitless, clean energy and a future of abundance.
That’s all for this week’s AMA. If you have a message or question for me or any of my team, you can always reach us right here.
My team and I enjoy hearing from you, and we read everything you send in. Just keep in mind I can’t give personalized investment advice, and I can’t always broadcast questions concerning exclusive research.
Have a great weekend, everyone.
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