RJ Hamster
♟ From Tariff Hoarding to Chart Collapse: Why Best…
View in browser“The best investment ideas are often right in front of you, not behind some paywall on Wall Street.”Chris “CJ” Johnson, Lead Host & Senior Analyst, Monument Traders Alliance Editor’s Note: Are you tired of racking up credit card debt this holiday season and want a fast, FREE way to generate extra income?Next week, millionaire trader Nate Bear is hosting a FREE “Holiday Trading Challenge.”For 3 days, you’ll join Nate in his Daily Profits Live chatroom, with the goal for you to make as much holiday trading profits as you can.You’ll also have the chance to win over $50,000 worth of prizes.Click here to sign up for Nate’s Holiday Trading Challenge today.– Stephen Prior, Publisher Dear Reader,More than 20 years ago, during a rained-out vacation in Naples, Florida, I gave each of my three kids $20 to spend at the local mall.We roamed through the mall checking out each store, but the moods shifted immediately when the kids saw a Pac-Sun Store.Everyone rushed into the store ripping through shelves and racks as they tried to figure out what to buy. Get this, they actually pooled their money in the Pac-Sun store to stretch their buying power!Something powerful was going on, and it meant that there was an opportunity for me.Three days later, I bought Pac-Sun stock. It ended up as one of my best-performing positions that year.That experience shaped how I invest. I don’t wait for analysts to bless an idea. I watch behavior – mine, yours, and the people around us.The best investment ideas are often right in front of you, not behind some paywall on Wall Street.CJ’s Walk Down Main Street: December 6, 2025This season, I hit the streets looking for the “perfect” gifts.Living downtown in Cincinnati, I try to support local businesses – but like everyone else, I end up at a strip mall: DSW Shoes (DBI), Ulta(ULTA), REI, and of course… Best Buy (BBY).Inside Best Buy? Empty. Music playing, video games running, but very few shoppers. I asked the cashier while I was checking out what was going on with the empty store. Her response? “We’ve been slow all season.”That’s all I needed to hear. Best Buy – once a seasonal winner – is struggling. Opportunity knocking.The Consumer is SlowingElectronics prices aren’t the problem.CPI data shows TVs and similar items are down about 2% year-over-year. The issue is demand and timing.Earlier this year, consumers hoarded big-ticket items to front-run expected tariff hikes.That “tariff hoarding” showed up clearly in March data and persisted through summer, lowering demand heading into the holidays. It helped Best Buy to blow buy its early summer earnings expectations, but things are catching up now.Now, analysts at Telsey Advisory Group expect prices to rise in late December and January as retailers pass along tariff costs. The result: Things are about to go from slow to dead.The Real Pressure: Heating and Grocery CostsKarim just mentioned it on the weekly Catalyst Cash-Outs Live on Tuesday, what used to be a sub $100 trip to the grocery has turned into a $300+ trip for the same provisions. Inflation at the grocery store hits every American, not a single class.TV prices may be flat, but inflation is hitting consumers elsewhere. Now, add in heating costs for the winter…EIA data shows:Electricity: +10%Natural Gas: +8–9%Overall heating costs: +7–8% from last winterRegions hit hardest: Northeast and MidwestThat squeeze is hitting everyone, fast.Best Buy Already Showed Its HandBest Buy had a brief stretch of strength earlier this year, possibly fueled by that tariff hoarding. But revenue and earnings have remained weak.Year-over-year revenue growth just turned positive at +2%, after posting a -10% decline during the last slowdown.Meanwhile, Amazon, Walmart, and Costco now outsell Best Buy in televisions. The company’s moat is gone. SPONSOREDNEW: Competitive Holiday Trading Challenge (FREE) Millionaire Trader just issued a one-of-a-kind challenge…Make as much trading profits as you can before Christmas IN JUST 3 DAYS!To help, he’s opening up his world-renowned private chatroom for THREE FULL DAYS FOR FREE (Wednesday, December 17th-December 19th) to stream live, give trade recommendations, and teach the same strategies that made him a millionaire in just 4 years.Join the 3 Day Trading Challenge and either trade for REAL MONEY, or choose to compete in the first-ever Monument Traders Battlegroundpaper trading contest for a chance to win prizes worth over $50,000!It’s 100% FREE!RESERVE YOUR SPOT IN THE CHALLENGE!Best Buy’s Seasonal Tailwind Is OverRetailers historically thrive in the stretch between Labor Day and Black Friday.Best Buy didn’t miss the trend this year as shares jumped over 30% during the seasonal rally, outperforming both the S&P 500 (+9.8%) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (+0.02%).But that seasonal strength is now a headwind. December is historically one of Best Buy’s weakest months: Average December return: –2%Only 5 positive Decembers in the last 20 years That’s not a dip, that’s a trend. I always tell my followers Don’t Fight the Trend!Best Buy’s Chart: A Breakdown in MotionFollowing a mediocre rally, Best Buy’s chart is flashing multiple bearish signals:50-day moving average is rolling over into a bearish trend. Last time this happened? March 2025 – right before a 22% decline.Post-earnings rally has fully reversed, with the stock falling back below its 50-day.20-day moving average (my Trader’s Trendline) just crossed below the 50-day, confirming a momentum shift.Critical support at $72.50 is about to break – this line has held four times in three months. Add in the nearby 200-day moving average, and this is a double breakdown setup. If this level fails, BBY is headed toward $62.55, a 15% drop from its current price and tradable opportunity.How to Trade the BreakdownIf you’re long on Best Buy, reconsider the hold.The break below $72.50 – especially with the 200-day sitting there – is likely to trigger high-volume selling and increased volatility as investors run for the doors.Here’s My Trade Idea…Buy-to-Open: BBY March 20, 2026 $75 PutTarget entry price: $6.50 (based on Black-Scholes model, not current market price)Target price for BBY: $62.50Potential return: $12.50 value at expiration = ~92% profitExit Strategy:Profit target: Close if return exceeds 100%. Don’t get greedy!Technical stop: I strongly consider closing the put if BBY closes above its 20-day moving average for three straight days.To unsubscribe from Trade of the Day, click here. Questions? Check out our FAQs. Trying to reach us? Contact us here. Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox. To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at: Trade of the Day | 14 West Mount Vernon Place | Baltimore, MD 21201 North America: 800.507.1399 | International: +1.443.353.4977 Website | Privacy Policy Keep the emails you value from falling into your spam folder. Whitelist Trade of the Day. © 2025 Monument Traders Alliance, LLC | All Rights Reserved Nothing published by Monument Traders Alliance should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed personalized investment advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after publication before trading on a recommendation. Any investments recommended by Monument Traders Alliance should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. The information found on this website may only be used pursuant to the membership or subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Traders Alliance, LLC, 14 West Mount Vernon Place, Baltimore, MD 21201.REF: 000142349377 |
Dear Reader,More than 20 years ago, during a rained-out vacation in Naples, Florida, I gave each of my three kids $20 to spend at the local mall.We roamed through the mall checking out each store, but the moods shifted immediately when the kids saw a Pac-Sun Store.Everyone rushed into the store ripping through shelves and racks as they tried to figure out what to buy. Get this, they actually pooled their money in the Pac-Sun store to stretch their buying power!Something powerful was going on, and it meant that there was an opportunity for me.Three days later, I bought Pac-Sun stock. It ended up as one of my best-performing positions that year.That experience shaped how I invest. I don’t wait for analysts to bless an idea. I watch behavior – mine, yours, and the people around us.The best investment ideas are often right in front of you, not behind some paywall on Wall Street.CJ’s Walk Down Main Street: December 6, 2025This season, I hit the streets looking for the “perfect” gifts.Living downtown in Cincinnati, I try to support local businesses – but like everyone else, I end up at a strip mall: DSW Shoes (DBI), Ulta(ULTA), REI, and of course… Best Buy (BBY).Inside Best Buy? Empty. Music playing, video games running, but very few shoppers. I asked the cashier while I was checking out what was going on with the empty store. Her response? “We’ve been slow all season.”That’s all I needed to hear. Best Buy – once a seasonal winner – is struggling. Opportunity knocking.The Consumer is SlowingElectronics prices aren’t the problem.CPI data shows TVs and similar items are down about 2% year-over-year. The issue is demand and timing.Earlier this year, consumers hoarded big-ticket items to front-run expected tariff hikes.That “tariff hoarding” showed up clearly in March data and persisted through summer, lowering demand heading into the holidays. It helped Best Buy to blow buy its early summer earnings expectations, but things are catching up now.Now, analysts at Telsey Advisory Group expect prices to rise in late December and January as retailers pass along tariff costs. The result: Things are about to go from slow to dead.The Real Pressure: Heating and Grocery CostsKarim just mentioned it on the weekly
How the Fed’s “Challenging Situation” Could Rattle Your Portfolio in 2026
Michael Salvatore
Thursday, December 11





