GOOD MORNING

Equity markets continued the rebound in the prior week as hopes for a Fed rate cut were restored. A hotter-than-expected reading of initial jobless claims is to blame, but there is a caveat. A hotter-than-expected reading does not mean a hot read and the data is not hot. Jobless claims ticked up for the week in a seasonally expected move and remain within a healthy range. The FOMC is not likely to cut rates because of this data.

The week ahead brings many risks. The primary are inflation data and earnings from the retail sector. The inflation data is expected to moderate from the prior month but not enough to open the door for rate cuts this summer. At best, the data will cool enough to keep the FOMC on track for cuts this year but later in Q3. The risk is that inflation will not cool and reinvigorate fears the FOMC won’t cut until next year. The bottom line is that this manic market is focused on every detail that may affect the Fed decision, and volatility is the only guarantee.

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