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Cracking the Options Code:

August 29, 2024 | Read Online

Don Kaufman, here.

I want to talk to you about something near and dear to my heart when it comes to trading…and that’s options.

I spent 15 years at thinkorswim where I had a front-row seat to the largest options order flow in the industry. I didn’t just observe what millions of retail accounts were doing…but I studied them

And let me tell you…A LOT of traders fail because they never get the basics right.

Without a firm grasp of the basics you’ll trade the wrong options with the wrong strategy which will end up costing you a bundle of cash.

To avoid these pitfalls you must take the time to understand how options are priced.

So, game on!

Let’s break this down.

First things first, stock options are priced using mathematical models. You’ve probably heard of the Black-Scholes-Merton model – it’s the rock star of option pricing.

But don’t worry, we’re not going to get bogged down in the math. Instead, let’s focus on what really moves the needle in option pricing.

To price an option, you need to know six key factors:

Current stock price
Strike price
Time to expiration
Stock volatility
Interest rates
Cash dividends

Let’s take a closer look at each of these, and I promise you, by the end of this, you’ll have a much clearer picture.

Current Stock Price:

This one’s pretty straightforward. As the stock price goes up, call options become more valuable, and put options less so. It’s like a see-saw – when one side goes up, the other goes down.

For example, if a stock jumps from $100 to $102, you might see a call option value increase from $1.73 to $2.93, while a put option drops from $1.71 to $0.91. It’s all about the relationship between the stock price and the strike price.

Strike Price:

Now, this is where we get into the lingo of options trading. We classify options as OTM (out-of-the-money), ITM (in-the-money), or ATM (at-the-money).

ATM options have a strike price close to the current stock price.
ITM call options have a strike price lower than the stock price.
OTM call options have a strike price higher than the stock price.

For calls, the higher the strike (more OTM), the cheaper the option. For puts, it’s the opposite – higher strikes are more expensive. It’s all about probability, folks.

Time to Expiration:

Options are wasting assets, plain and simple. The more time left, the more valuable the option.

Why?

Because there’s more time for the stock to potentially move in your favor. As expiration approaches, that time value bleeds away.

That said, the more time an option has remaining, the more expensive it is and vice versa.

At expiration, the option will either close ITM or expire worthless.

Implied Volatility:

This is where it gets juicy. Higher volatility means more expensive options – both calls and puts.

It’s like betting on a wild horse race versus a predictable one. More potential for big moves means more value in those options.

This is where a savvy trader will look at an options chain and buy options that are relatively cheap and sell options which are relatively expensive.

In fact, one of my most successful strategies is based on this principle.

Whenever you hear someone say options are expensive or cheap, they are usually referring to the options volatility.

In times of uncertainty option volatility is high, and its relatively low when the market doesn’t expect surprises.

For example, before an earnings announcement option volatility will be sky high because of the unknowns. However, after the news is digested, option volatility gets sucked out because our questions about the company are answered.

Interest Rates:

Now, we’ve were in a low interest rate environment for ages, so this wasn’t as crucial as it is now. All you need to know is – higher rates generally boost call values and decrease put values.

Cash Dividends:

Last but not least, dividends. As dividends increase, put options become more valuable, while call options lose some value. It’s not a major player for most trades, but it’s part of the bigger picture.

Look, I know this is a lot to take in.

But here’s the deal – understanding these factors is like having the keys to the kingdom in options trading.

My advice?

Play around with an options calculator or price some different options on the same symbol.

Get a feel for how these factors interact. Once you’ve got this down, then we can talk about the sexy stuff like Greeks and advanced strategies.

Remember, in this market, knowledge is power.

And now you’ve got some serious firepower when it comes to understanding options pricing.

Stay tuned, because we’ve got a lot more to cover in this options game.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

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3 Top Stocks to Buy and Hold

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Dear Fellow Investor,

It’s time to buy and hold long-term uranium stocks.

For one, the supply-demand situation is only getting worse. The Russian uranium ban went into effect on August 1. And the government of Kazakhstan just increased its extraction tax, which will limit supply growth. Two, with the artificial intelligence boom showing no signs of slowing, uranium could help fuel energy needs.

Plus, as noted by Wells Fargo, after years of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand could grow as much as 20% by 2030. Again, because of the AI data center demand.

“AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030, according to Wells Fargo. The forecast power demand from AI alone is seven times greater than New York City’s current annual electricity consumption of 48 terawatt hours. Goldman Sachs projects that data centers will represent 8% of total U.S. electricity consumption by the end of the decade,” says CNBC.

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AZ Briefing: Metro Phoenix residents upset about storage

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AZ Briefing

YOUR MORNING NEWS ROUNDUP

Thu Aug 29 2024

Lorenzino Estrada | Digital Producer

Good morning, Arizona. Here’s what our reporters are working on and what you should know before you start your day.

Could a storage facility cause increased traffic and decreased property values? A group of West Valley residents think so.

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Today in history

Here are just some of the events on this date in the past.

•	On this day in 1911: “Ishi,” possibly the last member of the Yahi tribe, encountered white people at a slaughterhouse in Oroville, California. Officials brought him to a museum, where he lived for the rest of his life. “Ishi” means “man” in the Yana language; he refused to share his name without an introduction by a fellow Yahi.
•	In 1957: Congress passed the Civil Rights Act of 1957, the first federal legislation protecting racial minorities since Reconstruction. It created a civil rights division in the Justice Department and authorized the attorney general to sue on behalf of Black people blocked from voting.
•	In 1970: More than 20,000 Mexican Americans marched through East Los Angeles, calling themselves the Chicano Moratorium, to protest the war in Vietnam and highlight the fact that Mexican Americans were dying in Vietnam at twice the rate of any other group. The Sheriff’s Department began beating protesters, sparking violence that killed three, including Los Angeles Times journalist Rubén Salazar.
•	In 1997: Marc Randolph and Reed Hasting founded an online business that rented digital video discs through the mail, Netflix – or, as they called it, NetFlix. The company originally charged by the disc and sent DVDs in striking red envelopes.
•	In 2005: Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 3 storm. Levees and storm walls failed, flooding and devastating an estimated 80% of New Orleans. The damage totaled about $108 billion in 2005 dollars. Sixteen years later, Category 4 Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana on the same date.
•	In 2008: Republican presidential candidate John McCain named Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. It was the first time a woman appeared on the GOP presidential ticket. “This is America, and every woman can walk through every door of opportunity,” she said, and joked, “the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick.”

Former New Times editor will go to prison, judge decides

Lacey faced several charges accusing him of facilitating prostitution through Backpage.com ads. He was found guilty of a single financial crime.

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AIA OKs transfers for 7 players amid racial bias claims

7 former Saguaro football players were granted hardship approval to play the full season at new schools by the Arizona Interscholastic Association.

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St. Luke’s hospital in Phoenix furloughs employees

Officials with the troubled Dallas-based Steward Health say they’ve furloughed more than 200 Arizona employees.

READ MORE

Innings Festival and Extra Innings coming back in 2025

Innings Festival and Extra Innings have announced 2025 dates in Tempe. Last spring’s headliners included Red Hot Chili Peppers and Chris Stapleton.

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Mercury, WNBA players navigate financial pressures

Phoenix Mercury, WNBA players navigate financial pressures in their professional basketball journeys.

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Hamster fun and information

What If Cryptocurrency Became The World’s Primary Currency?

The year 2052 brought a fresh sight to the worlds cities. Flashy holographic billboards that used to adorn the cities with advertisements now showcased the universal symbol of cryptocurrency, represented through an elegant blend of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple emblems. The world was more interconnected than ever, and the idea of physical cash had been […] Read more

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Hamster fun and information

AI Is More Than Just the ‘Next Big Thing’…

AI Is More Than Just the ‘Next Big Thing’ in Tech

By Joel Litman, chief investment strategist, Altimetry

We’ve seen this story before…

An emerging technology comes along, and it changes everything.

Think back to the dot-com boom in the 1990s. Many companies didn’t take the Internet seriously then. They thought it was just a fad… something for tech companies and startups to employ.

They didn’t understand that the Internet would become essential for every business. As telecommunications expert Waring Partridge said in 1995…

Most things that succeed don’t require retraining 250 million people.

Yet, the Internet has had a dramatic impact on many different fields. More than 5 billion people use it around the world today. It’s now essential to our daily lives.

Those who recognized the massive potential of the Internet early on adapted and thrived. Those who didn’t were left behind.

The secret was that the dot-com boom wasn’t just relegated to tech companies. Every company that’s around today had to become a dot-com company.

In a recent conversation on the Soar Financially podcast, I highlighted how this mirrors the current situation with AI.

Let me be clear… Just as was the case with the Internet, falling behind in AI could be the biggest mistake a company makes.

Back in the ’90s, companies questioned the necessity of having a robust online presence…

Many thought, “Why would we need a website when our physical stores are doing so well?”

Borders – one of the largest bookstore chains at the time – was one such company.

It was comfortable with its business model. It had a vast network of stores, and it believed that its customers would remain loyal to the in-store experience.

However, when the dot-com mania started to take off, Borders made a critical mistake…

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Instead of developing its own online presence, it outsourced its e-commerce operations to Amazon (AMZN), which was a relatively smaller online bookstore at the time.

It seemed like the smart move, as it would allow Borders to focus on its physical stores.

In reality, Borders was handing over its digital customer base to a competitor… when it should have been adapting its business to the rapidly changing retail landscape.

The company failed to realize that the Internet wasn’t just a fad or a niche market. It was the future.

Borders’ decision to outsource its online sales operation to Amazon from 2001 to 2008 – during the prime years of the dot-com bubble – marked the beginning of the company’s decline.

It meant that Borders missed out on developing its own e-commerce infrastructure right when digital transformation was vital.

By the time it realized the importance of e-commerce, it was too late.

Borders couldn’t compete. And while Amazon grew into the giant it is today, Borders’ business slowly crumbled and eventually went bankrupt in 2011.

Fast forward to today, and we’re at a similar crossroads with AI…

Some might liken AI to a buzzword – something tech companies or specific industries use to draw folks in.

But just like with the Internet, AI isn’t confined to one sector. It’s a tool that every business needs to leverage… or risk being outpaced by competitors who do.

It will take some time. But just as the Internet became essential for doing business, AI will eventually become the standard.

Those who completely ignore AI, or who actively boast that they’re “anti-AI,” will face the same fate as Borders – a company that once had everything, but lost it all by failing to evolve.

AI is not just the “next big thing” in the tech world… It’s the next big thing when it comes to everything.

We need to lean into companies adopting this new technology. More importantly, we need to be careful of companies who are starting to fall behind.

Regards,

Joel Litman
August 29, 2024

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