A message for Jerome Powell… The White House’s argument against tariff inflation… A juicy market… Bitcoin gets a corporate boost… Why public companies are outbuying the pros…

It’s like worrying about a meteor hitting Earth…

That’s how a top White House economic adviser just described fears of tariffs raising consumer prices. Stephen Miran, chairman of President Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, put it this way today on CNBC…

Eventually a meteor’s going to strike or whatever, but we’ve been waiting, and it’s been many months now, and the evidence [of higher prices due to tariffs] has just not emerged. There’s no sign of it in higher-frequency pieces of data…

Miran pointed to a new report from his council. It concludes that while prices for overall goods since December have gone up by 0.4%, imported goods have actually gone down by 0.1% in the same span.

That’s according to this group’s reading of U.S. personal consumption expenditures (“PCE”) data, which the Federal Reserve says is its preferred measure of inflation.

Miran’s message seems to target Jerome “Too Late” Powell, as Trump calls the Federal Reserve chairman on good days.

Trump wants rates lower – and now. He says the pace of inflation has been low, leaving no reason to keep interest rates elevated. And Miran was providing what he felt was data to back up the argument. The Fed’s next policy meeting is the last week of July.

Now, it’s possible that Trump’s tariffs are increasing prices… and the data just isn’t catching it yet. Even Miran acknowledged “volatility” could be possible in inflation data, but he seemed to be more focused on pointing out that it hasn’t already happened.

So, maybe the proper analogy will end up being the thousands of small meteorites that frequently fall to Earth each year, but go unnoticed or burn up in the atmosphere.

I (Corey McLaughlin) am curious… I know we have a lot of business owners and operators in our audience. What are you seeing as the impacts of tariffs – real or threatened – so far on your businesses, jobs, prices, and local economy? Let us know at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

For now, the market agrees with the ‘meteor risk’ analogy…

Trump posted a few more tariff-related letters to his Truth Social account late yesterday, bringing the total to 14. A 25% tariff on imports from Tunisia and a 35% duty on goods from Bangladesh were among the rates included after we went to press yesterday.

And today, Mr. Market shrugged and, you could argue, even welcomed the news.

The benchmark S&P 500 was little changed while the Russell 2000 gained 0.7% and the CBOE Volatility Index (“VIX”) dropped back below 17 after a small pop higher yesterday. Forget a meteor – tariffs are more like a shooting star. Just passing through…

Increasingly, it looks like few investors expect harsh final outcomes for the U.S. economy coming from the White House’s trade negotiations. Maybe that’s because late yesterday, after posting the letters, Trump again suggested the August 1 deadline for “reciprocal” tariffs may be “not 100% firm.” (A little while later, he said they were.)

Also remember, the courts haven’t yet decided whether it’s even legal for Trump to unilaterally impose these tariffs. And the longer trade negotiations go on, the less time the White House would have to apply other trade laws to achieve the president’s tariff goals.

Consumers also appear to have moved past the idea of price spikes from tariffs for now.

According to the New York Fed’s monthly consumer survey, inflation expectations for the next year have returned to the levels they were in January. That’s at 3%, down from an expected 3.6% in March and April.

So, Wall Street and Main Street have been putting Liberation Day in the rearview mirror. No wonder the environment has been looking juicy lately.

That’s not to say things can’t turn south (or further north, in one case below) if tariff impacts actually do begin showing up in the economy.

Copper soars…

Just today, Trump delivered a surprise 50% tariff on copper imports, which sent prices up by as much as 18% to an intraday all-time high of $5.90. They gave back some of those gains this afternoon but still closed the day up 9% – also a new high.

Trump also suggested more sector-specific tariffs to come, “like 200%” on pharmaceutical imports.

But it’s a “risk on” sentiment right now, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average near all-time highs, and the Russell 2000 also trending higher.

As we wrote in our May 13 edition – “Another Sign the ‘Worst’ Is Over” – when the S&P 500 was up 18% since Trump’s 90-day tariff pause began in mid-April, the market has been gradually showing increased expectations for a relatively pleasant tariff outcome. We wrote on May 13…

The “worst-case scenario” of immediate impacts from high double-digit and triple-digit tariff rates comes off the table, as the White House announced “de-escalation” with China yesterday and signals more trade deals to come. The market has responded with approval.

Bitcoin, too, has returned close to its all-time highs, trading above $109,000 today. Speaking of that, here is Nick Koziol with a report on a recent development in public companies buying bitcoin…

Here come the bitcoin believers…

When it comes to public companies buying bitcoin, the first one on folks’ minds is usually Strategy (MSTR). Since then-CEO Michael Saylor began adding bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet in 2020, it has accumulated nearly 600,000 bitcoin.

But it is far from the only company to do so…

According to CNBC, public companies acquired more than 130,000 bitcoin in the second quarter. That increased their holdings by 18% from the end of the first quarter. And Strategy was only a small fraction of that – adding about 12,000 bitcoin in the quarter.

And in each of the past three quarters, public companies bought more bitcoin than crypto exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”).

And just in 2025, public-company bitcoin purchases have doubled those from ETFs – which had already been a huge driver of demand.

Since spot bitcoin ETFs launched in the U.S. in January 2024, ETF companies have rushed to buy up bitcoin to back their investing products. In 18 months, ETFs have built themselves into the largest holding class of bitcoin – holding about 7% of all bitcoin.

Between the higher demand from these fund companies, increased buying from public companies, and a pro-crypto presidential administration, bitcoin’s price has held within touching distance of its all-time high near $110,000.

It’s not just open-market purchases…

As our colleague and Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade wrote in a private message to us…

Clearly not every company that is putting bitcoin on their balance sheet is as aggressive as Strategy. Many of them are working their way into it slowly and organically. Such as when a sale is made in which bitcoin is the method of payment… the company might wait or even choose not to sell the bitcoin for fiat [currency]. That’s the most passive way to accumulate bitcoin.

There are two main reasons why companies, and even our government, are loading up on bitcoin and cryptos.

We’ve written a lot about the constant devaluation of the dollar and erosion of purchasing power. Just this year, the U.S. Dollar Index (“DXY”) is down more than 10% – on track for one of its worst years on record.

Holding bitcoin on the balance sheet could help protect against that. More from Eric…

Thanks to Strategy – the companies doing this want an asset on their balance sheet that can appreciate. The fear, though, is as simple as recognizing that fiat currencies can fall in value short-term and erode drastically long-term. Owning bitcoin is a way to strategically avoid losing money (a role gold played for millennia) but also could make profits in line with or better than their main business line does when bitcoin rallies.

Strategy, and even video-game retailer GameStop (GME), may get the majority of the headlines from adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. But this trend is a lot bigger than just those two companies, and it’s another sign of cryptocurrencies’ increasingly mainstream adoption and staying power as a long-term investment.

Looking ahead…

Our colleague Greg Diamond, editor of Ten Stock Trader, goes live with his latest video tomorrow. Greg will share his take on the impact of tariffs on the market, plus the latest action in Tesla (TSLA) shares and gold. This free live video will hit tomorrow morning before the market opens…

If you haven’t yet checked out one of Greg’s free live video sessions, you really should. He’s an expert technical analyst… And each week, he showcases his strategy and how everyday folks can apply it to various stocks, sectors, and the market in general…

Tomorrow, he’ll go live on our YouTube channel at 8:45 a.m. Eastern time.

Here is a direct link where you can sign up and get a notification when the video begins. And if you subscribe to our YouTube channel, you can ask Greg questions directly during the show.

In the meantime, you can learn more about Greg’s trading strategy at TenStockTrader.com… And, as always, Ten Stock Trader subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find all of his analysis and trade recommendations right here.

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In today’s mail, feedback on yesterday’s Digest about tariffs being back in the headlines, and two other factors driving the market right now… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

“I think the media bombarding Trump with ‘Taco’ references will cause him to stay put this time [on tariffs]. When the market realizes this, it will act accordingly.” – Subscriber Ted B.

“Hi Corey & Nick: Here’s a quick internet search of the imports from Japan, S Korea, and Malaysia into the US: Japan: < 5%; S Korea: < [4]%; Malaysia: < 2%

“If these numbers are correct, will the impact be that bad for the stock market?” – Subscriber Norman B.

Corey McLaughlin comment: Good point… and yes, your numbers are correct as of 2022.

Taken one by one, you could argue tariffs on individual countries won’t affect the broad economy too much. Still, it’ll have a greater impact on individual businesses or industries (like apparel or appliances) that directly deal with imports from those countries.

Plus, the bigger concern (if you’re concerned about broader inflation and disruptions to businesses) is the collective impact of high tariff rates against allthe major and minor trading partners.

For example, back in May, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco evaluated a 25% tariff on all Chinese imports. In this scenario, the San Francisco Fed said this tariff would only add about 0.3% to the personal consumption expenditures (“PCE”) index, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge.

But a 25% across-the-board tariff – if it’s fully passed through to finished goods – would add 2.2% to consumer-goods prices and 9.5% to “investment goods,” meaning equipment for manufacturing or similar investments in a business.

As I wrote yesterday, though, it looks like the market is mostly looking past this latest round of announcements as another round of threats rather than policy. They may simply be a spruced-up way to extend trade negotiations until or beyond August 1. We’ll see what happens next.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
July 8, 2025