Calendars, Premiums, and Palantir: Why Risk Needs a Clock

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Calendars, Premiums, and Palantir: Why Risk Needs a Clock
By Blake Young

Thursdays are detail days, and if you’ve been with me for more than a minute, you know how much I love peeling back the layers of a strategy until we hit the marrow. Today we walked into the beating heart of selling premium—not just to generate income, but to actively reduce risk and build smarter trades. And we used Palantir as our blueprint.

Here’s the reality most folks gloss over: When you sell a put, the delta might show you the probability of assignment, but it doesn’t tell you the probability of success. That’s a big distinction. Selling a 30-day put at $145 on Palantir and collecting $7.50 feels like a win—until you realize that’s just the market pricing in a 46% chance you’ll be assigned. But what does that really mean?

It means you have to go deeper.

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