New Years Day…

One small gold stock will be preparing to mine its first ounce of gold. 

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That’s because right now, the company is pre-revenue. 

So, it’s invisible to the algos and AI programs that make up the bulk of daily trading. 

But as soon as it starts generating gold – and cash – it will be like flicking a light switch.

The world’s most powerful trading computers will bid up prices to match fair value.

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Click here to get the full briefing before it’s too late.

Best, 

Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio

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Additional Reading from MarketBeat

Lemonade’s Tesla Deal Could Rewrite How Auto Insurance Is Priced

Submitted by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Posted: 1/22/2026. 

What You Need to Know

• Lemonade’s new autonomous car insurance product leverages direct integration to offer discounts for miles driven in full self-driving mode.
• Management reported a historic low gross loss ratio and a second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted free cash flow in the recent earnings report.
• Institutional confidence is rising as a banking giant recently disclosed a passive stake in the company to support long-term growth plans.

Lemonade Inc. (NYSE: LMND) shares hit a new 52-week high of $85.29 on Jan. 21, 2026, closing the session up more than 9%. The rally was driven by trading volume of 2.64 million shares, above the stock’s average, indicating strong investor interest. The move follows the company’s announcement of a technical collaboration with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to launch Lemonade Autonomous Car Insurance.

The new product introduces a per-mile pricing model that offers a 50% discount when Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability is engaged. It marks a pivotal moment for the insurtech, whose stock price has climbed nearly 20% since the start of the year.

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The market sees this as more than a product launch; it’s a validation of Lemonade’s technology-first business model. By tying premiums directly to autonomous-driving usage, Lemonade is positioning itself at the forefront of a shift in the auto industry. Investors are betting this data-driven approach will let the company capture share from traditional insurers while preserving healthy profit margins.

How Real-Time Data Changes the Profit Equation

At the center of the collaboration is an API integration that lets Lemonade’s systems communicate directly with a customer’s Tesla. That connection enables the insurer to distinguish miles driven by a human from miles driven by the vehicle’s autonomous software.

That distinction enables real-time risk pricing. Traditional insurers such as Allstate (NYSE: ALL)or Progressive (NYSE: PGR) rely on proxies—credit scores, age, zip codes and other demographic factors—to estimate driver risk. Lemonade is instead pricing risk based on actual behavior and technology use. If data shows FSD is safer than a human driver, Lemonade can offer lower rates without eroding margins.

The Economic Advantage: Why This Matters

Beyond the technology, the deal offers a potential financial edge: a negative Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC). Acquiring new customers in insurance is typically very expensive.

• Ending the ad war: Legacy carriers spend billions on television advertising (think geckos and emus) to win market share. By integrating directly into the Tesla ecosystem, Lemonade can reach a large pool of drivers without expensive mass-media campaigns.
• High-value demographics: Tesla owners represent a desirable customer base: higher credit scores, newer vehicles with advanced safety features and historically lower claim rates.
• The bundle effect: Once a driver signs up for auto insurance, Lemonade can cross-sell Home, Pet and Life policies, increasing customer lifetime value (LTV) while keeping acquisition costs low.

By targeting a tech-savvy niche, Lemonade aims to avoid the costly customer-acquisition battles that burden many incumbents.

How Improved Margins Enabled the Tesla Pivot

Two years ago, launching a deeply discounted product would likely have unsettled investors. Today, Lemonade is expanding from a position of stronger financial stability. Its third-quarter 2025 earnings provided metrics to support a more aggressive strategy.

Revenue for the quarter rose 42% year-over-year to $194.5 million, underscoring solid demand. More importantly, the company has tightened underwriting discipline.

Key efficiency improvements include:

• Gross Loss Ratio (GLR): GLR measures the percentage of premium dollars paid in claims—a lower number is better. Lemonade reported a GLR of 62% in Q3 2025, a historic low for the company and a material improvement from prior years when ratios hovered in the 70s and 80s, suggesting its algorithms are better at identifying and pricing risk.
• Positive cash flow: Lemonade posted adjusted free cash flow of $18 million in Q3—the second consecutive quarter of positive cash generation.

These results suggest the business is becoming self-sustaining rather than burning cash to operate. That financial health gives management flexibility to invest in growth initiatives, such as the Tesla partnership, without taking on new debt or diluting shareholders.

The Tug-of-War: Bulls, Bears, and Execution Risks

The stock’s performance reflects a tug-of-war between institutional confidence and short-seller skepticism, creating a volatile—but potentially rewarding—environment for investors.

On the bullish side, institutional investors have increased exposure. JPMorgan Chase disclosed a roughly 5.9% passive stake in Lemonade, representing approximately 4.5 million shares. A sizable position from a banking giant like JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) can signal long-term potential. Lemonade’s founders, Daniel Schreiber and Shai Wininger, have also bought shares on the open market, aligning their interests with shareholders.

The Short Squeeze Potential

Despite the momentum, skepticism remains: about 20% of Lemonade’s float is currently sold short.

• What is short selling? Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, betting the price will fall so they can repurchase at a lower level.
• The squeeze: Positive news—like the Tesla deal—can push the price up, forcing short sellers to buy to cover losses. That buying pressure can accelerate the price move in a feedback loop known as a short squeeze.

Execution Risks Remain

Investors should stay cautious. The rollout is currently limited to Arizona and Oregon. Scaling nationwide requires navigating a complex web of state regulatory approvals, which could slow expansion. The economics of the 50% discount also depend on FSD proving safer than human drivers. If FSD accident rates rise, Lemonade could face higher-than-expected claims costs that would compress the margins it has worked to improve.

Can AI Finally Disrupt Auto Insurance?

Lemonade is transitioning from a concept stock into a tangible disruptor with improving margins and steady growth. The Tesla partnership pressures legacy carriers to modernize pricing models or risk losing their safest, most profitable drivers to technology-first competitors.

Risks around regulatory rollout and autonomous-safety performance remain. Still, the market reaction suggests investors are warming to the idea of AI-driven insurance. How the stock performs in 2026 will likely hinge on Lemonade’s ability to execute the rollout while maintaining the financial discipline demonstrated in recent quarters.

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