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Just For You

Costco Finally Breaks Out: Is There Still Time to Buy?

Submitted by Dan Schmidt. Article Published: 1/14/2026. 

Article Highlights

• COST shares struggled in the second half of 2025, dipping nearly 20% in the last six months.
• Despite the sluggish stock, Costco’s sales remained strong and the company is set up for more growth in 2026.
• Investors are starting to take notice as the stock is up 10% in the last two weeks, but there’s still time to buy back into this retail giant.

A sleeping giant may finally be waking after nearly a year of repeatedly hitting the snooze button. Shares of Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) began 2026 with a quick 10% gain on the back of strong December sales and technical signals pointing toward a bullish breakout. Is there still time to buy this retail favorite? If recent events are any indication, COST investors could be in for an exciting year.

Impressive Sales Growth Getting Harder to Ignore

After spending most of 2025 in a frustrating holding pattern, the market is beginning to reward Costco’s sales momentum. The company released its December sales figures last week, and the stock immediately jumped about 3% on the news.

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For the five weeks ending Jan. 4, Costco generated $29.86 billion in sales, up 8.5% year-over-year (YOY). Comps rose 6% YOY in the United States, while Canadian comps were 8.4% and international comps were 10.6%.

One particularly encouraging data point was the growth of digital-enabled sales, which surged nearly 19% YOY and may finally put to rest the narrative that Costco is lagging the broader retail sector in its e-commerce efforts.

This 19% gain follows November’s 16% digital sales expansion, and the impact shows up in larger tickets (up 4.2% on average in December) and increased customer traffic.

Not only are these digital initiatives bringing customers in more often, they’re also encouraging larger purchases when they shop.

Fundamental and Technical Tailwinds Taking Shape

Strong earnings have long been Costco’s primary engine, and its revenue growth and high membership retention are key reasons investors are willing to pay a premium for the retailer. In its fiscal 2025 report, management laid much of the groundwork for the current breakout.

Total sales for fiscal 2025 were about $269 billion, an increase of more than 8% from 2024. Net income topped $8 billion, and membership retention rates in the U.S. and Canada once again exceeded 90%, although some slight slippage has appeared in certain markets.

The company started fiscal 2026 with momentum as well, reporting more than $66 billion in sales during its Q1 2026 conference call on Dec. 11.

Management also has bold expansion plans for 2026, targeting roughly 30 new warehouses annually over the next few years to expand its international footprint.

Technical patterns are now aligning in the stock’s favor after six months in the doldrums. COST shares started 2025 strong, building on a roughly 40% gain in 2024.

The stock hit an all-time high of $1,076 in February but tumbled in April when trade tensions escalated. Unlike the broader market, COST shares didn’t fully recover when those tariffs were later canceled. The stock lost nearly 20% of its value in the second half of the year, falling to a multi-year low of $850 on Dec. 22. That extended downtrend was finally broken in the last two weeks, and the share price now looks set up for further gains.

The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) fell below the 200-day SMA in August 2025, forming a Death Cross pattern that turned the 50-day SMA into a heavy resistance area. Multiple attempts to reclaim that level were repelled by bearish momentum. Now, buyers are back in control: the share price has pushed above the 50-day SMA with conviction, and a bullish crossover on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator confirms the breakout. The 200-day SMA is the next crucial level to watch—if COST can reclaim it with similar strength, this rally could gather meaningful momentum.

Valuation Concerns Remain Despite Rangebound Trading

Investors are feeling more positive about COST than they have in a while. The fundamental picture is encouraging and the technical setup looks constructive. Still, one central concern for new shareholders is valuation.

COST spent most of 2025 trading in a volatile downward range, but that decline didn’t materially reduce the company’s premium valuation relative to many retail peers.

The stock still trades at about 50 times earnings and roughly 14 times book value, while the average retail-sector stock trades near 24 times earnings. Investors will often pay up for Costco’s successful membership model, but a ~50 P/E is more than 30% above the company’s 10-year average. As long as the consumer remains resilient, Costco’s rebound should have legs. However, if economic cracks begin to emerge and sales soften, the stock’s lofty valuation could trigger another sharp sell-off.

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