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Just For You

Medtronic Stock Finds Its Footing—Now It’s Gaining Momentum

Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/19/2025. 

Key Points

• Medtronic’s turnaround has taken time, but it is here and gaining momentum.
• Analysts and institutional trends indicate accumulation underway.
• Q2 results and the guidance update affirm strength and capital returns in F2026 and beyond.

It has taken Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) time to regain momentum; its stock price is now on track to move higher.

The chart reflects this shift, with action indicating a bottoming process unfolding over several years.

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Price cleared a key hurdle in early 2025, formed a Golden Crossover, and confirmed a market reversal after the fiscal year 2026 (F2026) Q2 earnings release.

MDT is positioned to rally over the coming quarters — possibly years — if it sustains modest growth, healthy margins, strong cash flow and consistent capital returns. 

Medtronic’s stock price could advance 20% to 30%, potentially more, given the favorable growth outlook. The company is sustaining mid-single-digit growth in F2026, and results are accelerating — prompting guidance raises and suggesting consensus forecasts may be conservative.

As of mid-November, the consensus forecasts reported by MarketBeat anticipate the healthcare company will grow at a mid-single-digit pace over the next five to six years, with incremental margin improvements along the way. 

Capital returns are a significant factor — dividends, dividend growth and share buybacks. The dividend yield of 2.95% is attractive and sustainable given an approximate 50% payout ratio.

Distribution increases are likely because the company is a Dividend Aristocrat with more than 40 consecutive years of dividend hikes, steady earnings growth and a healthy balance sheet. Share buybacks are also reducing the share count incrementally each quarter and are expected to continue at a similar pace. 

Medtronic Fires on All Cylinders in Q2 F2026

Medtronic delivered a strong FQ2, with growth across all segments and $8.96 billion in net revenue — a 6.6% year-over-year (YOY) increase that outpaced consensus.

Organic growth rose 5.5%, led by a 10.8% gain in the Cardiovascular portfolio driven by a 71% increase in cardiac ablation sales. Diabetes-related sales were up 10.3% YOY, followed by smaller gains in the Neurosciences and Medical-Surgical segments. 

Margins also improved. Operational execution and the absence of tariff surprises drove incremental margin expansion and stronger bottom-line growth. Adjusted earnings rose 8%, outpacing the 6.6% revenue gain and beating MarketBeat’s consensus by a wider margin; this strength is expected to continue. 

Q2 strength prompted management to raise full-year guidance, boosting market sentiment. The company increased its organic growth forecast by 50 basis points to 5.5%, nudging the midpoint of the EPS target range above consensus. The company may raise targets again after FQ3. 

Institutional and Analyst Trends Indicate Accumulation Underway

Institutional and analyst trends indicate accumulation is underway. Institutions — which own more than 80% of the stock — have been buying on balance over the past 12 months and increased activity in late Q3 and early Q4. 

Institutional buying provides a strong support base and a market tailwind, reflected in analyst data: expanded coverage, firmer sentiment and higher price targets. The consensus price target of $103 suggests modest upside, though recent updates point to larger gains.

The key question is whether these groups will continue buying and raising targets; Q2’s results suggest they will. 

Post-release price action was solid: the stock jumped about 5% after the open, confirming support at a key pivot — the prior resistance and top of the trading range — and setting a new high. In short, the technical reversal appears complete, opening the door for a sustainable rally.

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