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Monday’s Featured Story

Rare Earth Stocks: The Truce That Isn’t a Truce

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published 11/12/2025. 

Key Points

• Growing geopolitical competition is solidifying long-term government support for a secure domestic supply chain.
• America’s leading rare earth companies are successfully turning strategic blueprints into tangible operational milestones.
• Recent market volatility driven by temporary headlines may present a compelling entry point for long-term investors.

Recent headlines celebrating a U.S.-China trade truce have lulled the market into a false sense of security, triggering a sharp sell-off in domestic rare earth stocks. But beneath the headlines, a more strategic and confrontational reality is taking shape.

Beijing is now crafting a validated end-user (VEU) system — a surgical tool intended to keep rare earths flowing to approved civilian American companies while explicitly denying access to the U.S. military and its extensive contractor network.

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This is not a de-escalation; it is a declaration of a new, more targeted front in the global tech and defense race. That shift makes the development of domestic producers, such as MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR), not just strategically important but mission-critical.

China Sharpens Its Weapon, Russia Joins the Fray

Pressure to build a secure U.S. supply chain now comes from two global rivals, changing the strategic landscape and strengthening the long-term investment case for domestic producers.

First, China has sharpened its export-control tools. The VEU plan weaponizes supply-chain dominance by creating a potential red list for defense-related firms, sowing uncertainty for any U.S. company with dual-use applications in sectors like aerospace and automotive.

That targeted approach is designed to inflict maximum pain on America’s national security apparatus while minimizing collateral damage to the broader commercial relationship, making it a more sustainable — and dangerous — long-term policy.

Second, Russia is moving to build its own capabilities. President Vladimir Putin’s directive to develop a national roadmap for rare earth extraction signals a long-term strategic pivot and raises the prospect of a coordinated China–Russia bloc in critical minerals. Such coordination would further consolidate supply away from the West.

Taken together, these developments elevate the U.S. domestic supply-chain initiative from important industrial policy to an urgent, non-negotiable national security mission. The investment case is no longer just a speculative hedge against a trade war; it is a fundamental bet on a government-led build-out of a defense-oriented supply chain.

De-Risked and Ready to Deliver

China’s VEU plan makes the U.S. government’s recent multi-billion-dollar investments in domestic rare earths look not merely strategic but prescient. Washington is building a resilient ecosystem designed to withstand this exact threat, with MP Materials and USA Rare Earth as cornerstones.

• MP Materials: America’s Designated Prime Contractor. China’s strategy to cut off the U.S. military directly elevates MP’s importance. Its contracts with the Department of Defense are more critical than ever. The 10-year price floor, effective Oct. 1, provides revenue stability for the very products China may restrict. MP Materials’ recent third-quarter 2025 earnings report showed record production of 721 metric tons of high-value NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium), demonstrating its capacity to meet secure demand. With roughly $1.94 billion in cash, it has the financial firepower to accelerate build-out for any defense-related demand surge.
• USA Rare Earth: The Strategic Second Source. In a world of targeted supply-chain attacks, redundancy matters. USAR’s acquisition of UK-based Less Common Metals (LCM) brings immediate, non-Chinese expertise in the specialized metals and alloys required for defense-grade magnets. Coupled with a post-Q3 cash position above $400 million, USAR is positioned to become America’s critical second source and is well placed to compete for lucrative DoD contracts as it approaches Q1 2026 commissioning.

The Market’s Miscalculation: A Powder Keg of Opportunity

The market sold off on a simplistic “truce” headline, creating a stark valuation disconnect. Analyst consensus remains a Moderate Buy on both companies, and the price drops have made the upside to their average price targets more compelling.

As of Nov. 11, consensus price targets imply potential upside of over 26% for MP Materials and over 48% for USA Rare Earth.

Compounding the opportunity is elevated short interest in the sector: 17.89% for MP and 14.45% for USAR. This extreme pessimism creates a coiled-spring scenario. Any sudden geopolitical escalation — for example, formalization of China’s VEU list or the award of a new U.S. defense contract — could instantly invalidate the bearish thesis and force short-sellers to buy back shares en masse.

That rush of forced buying could trigger an explosive rebound. The race for rare-earth supremacy is accelerating. For long-term investors, the market’s current fear may have put a strategically vital sector on sale.

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