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For Your Education and Enjoyment

Dave Stock: 180% Gain + Q3 Beat = Breakout Setup?

Written by Ryan Hasson. Published 11/7/2025. 

Key Points

• Dave Inc. is up 180% YTD and still trades at a reasonable valuation, with a P/E of 24 and a forward P/E of 22.59.
• Q3 earnings sharply beat expectations, with 63% revenue growth, a major EPS surprise, and raised 2025 guidance.
• The stock is holding above support and may be approaching a breakout if it clears $273–$280 resistance.

Los Angeles–based financial technology company Dave Inc. (NASDAQ: DAVE) has quietly emerged as one of the market’s more intriguing small-cap momentum stocks to watch into year-end.

Dave’s mission is to provide affordable, transparent financial products that help users avoid predatory lending and high-interest debt. The company offers a subscription-driven mobile app designed to modernize personal finance for underserved consumers. Members use the platform to avoid overdraft fees, track spending, receive budgeting alerts, and access short-term cash advances tied to incoming paychecks.

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Millions have downloaded the app, giving Dave a solid foothold in a large and expanding market of underbanked consumers seeking cost-effective digital banking tools.

The company has built a growing online following, thanks to an impressive 180% year-to-date (YTD) rally. Although the share price has surged, the valuation still appears reasonable. Dave’s market cap has expanded to $3.29 billion, its trailing P/E sits near 24, and its forward P/E of 22.59 suggests a valuation that remains aligned with its earnings trajectory.

With momentum building, fundamentals strengthening, and a bullish technical setup, investors may be asking whether Dave is positioning for a meaningful breakout.

Recent Earnings Blew Past Expectations

Dave’s latest results added fuel to the stock’s climb. On Nov. 4, the company reported third-quarter earnings that sharply outperformed expectations. Its earnings per share (EPS) of $4.24 beat the forecasted $2.29, delivering an 85% earnings surprise.

Revenue reached $150.8 million, topping analyst estimates of $132.5 million and rising 63% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 137% year-over-year, signaling meaningful operating leverage as the business scales.

Management raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $544 million–$547 million, a move that signals confidence in both customer growth and product adoption. Much of the momentum came from continued expansion of the company’s lending and subscription products, along with the rollout of its updated Cache AI underwriting technology.

The platform is designed to assess cash-flow data more accurately than traditional credit scoring, and management believes this differentiation is contributing to stronger customer acquisition and improved loan performance.

Analysts Are Raising Targets as the Stock Re-Rates

The stronger-than-expected results triggered a wave of analyst activity.

Just one month ago, Dave carried a consensus price target of $274.13. As of Nov. 6, the consensus rose to $304.25, driven by upgrades from multiple firms. Benchmark raised its target from $320 to $345, implying nearly 46% upside at the time of the report. Citizens JMP boosted its target from $300 to $310, while B. Riley reiterated its bullish outlook.

The consensus rating remains at Moderate Buy, though recent momentum and higher targets suggest sentiment could continue to improve.

If analysts’ revised expectations prove accurate, the stock may be setting up for a breakout that validates the re-rating of the business. That potential now intersects with a constructive technical setup that has been forming over recent months.

A Bullish Formation Meets Bullish Sentiment

For nearly six months, Dave has traded within a wide consolidation channel, with $200 serving as notable support and $280 acting as the key ceiling. Despite multiple attempts, the stock has not yet sustained a move above that upper boundary.

However, the post-earnings reaction improved the technical structure. Shares are now holding above their 50-day moving average, which sits near $220 and has shifted into short-term support. The next step for buyers is reclaiming the upper portion of the range and taking out the earnings-day high of $273.

A decisive move above that level would position the stock to challenge $280, the defining resistance zone for months. If Dave can clear $280 with conviction and sustain momentum above the top of its multi-month channel, it would represent a technical breakout supported by improving fundamentals, rising guidance, and increasing analyst optimism.

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