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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media

Netflix Stock Drops 35%+ After Q4 as WBD Deal Risk Rises

Authored by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/23/2026. 

In Brief

• Netflix shares are in the midst of a huge drawdown that began in the middle of 2025.
• The company’s latest earnings didn’t provide a respite, sending shares even lower.
• With valuation multiples near an over two-year low, and analysts eyeing upside, is NFLX poised for a big recovery?

Entertainment giant Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) just reported its much-anticipated Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results. The stock closed down approximately 3% on Jan. 21 in reaction, the latest sign of souring sentiment around the once-favored name.

Since hitting an all-time split-adjusted high near $134 on June 30, 2025, the stock has been on a steep downward trajectory. (Note that Netflix performed a ten-for-one stock split in November, moving its share price from well over $1,100 to the $110 range.) Overall, shares are down roughly 37% from their mid-2025 peak.

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The company has given investors plenty to ponder. With growth expected to moderate and uncertainty surrounding its Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ: WBD) acquisition, many market participants have turned cautious. The stock now trades at its lowest forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in over two years.

Given the circumstances, should investors exercise caution around Netflix, or is this an opportunity to capitalize on the stock’s steep decline?

Netflix Hits Its Marks in Q4, But Signals Growth Slowdown

In its latest quarter, Netflix posted solid results, but only narrowly beat Wall Street forecasts.

Sales came in at $12.05 billion, an increase of 18%, slightly above estimates of $11.97 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.56, a split-adjusted increase of more than 30% and $0.01 above consensus.

For 2026, Netflix guided to full-year sales of $51.2 billion at the midpoint, implying growth of about 13% — a notable deceleration from the roughly 16% full-year growth rate recorded in 2025. The company also expects to generate approximately $11 billion in free cash flow (FCF), or about 16% growth.

If FCF grows near or modestly above this rate over the long term, it could help justify the stock’s current valuation. However, as streaming becomes more competitive and less novel, maintaining strong organic growth will be challenging.

Accordingly, the company’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. will play a major role in Netflix’s trajectory as it seeks to convert new assets into higher revenue and profits.

WBD Deal: Netflix’s Big Splash Still Has Big Question Marks

Netflix is pitching the Warner Bros. deal as a growth accelerant. During the earnings call, CEO Ted Sarandos said, “We’re working really hard to close the acquisition of Warner Bros. Studios and HBO, which we see as a strategic accelerant.”

Last quarter, these WBD segments generated about $5.28 billion in revenue and $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA. The acquisition could materially boost Netflix’s EBITDA, which averaged roughly $3.4 billion over the last four quarters. Integrating WBD’s content and production capabilities could also lift engagement and subscriber growth, supporting stronger long-term performance.

But Netflix is paying a high price: the deal is valued at $82.7 billion, and the company recently converted its offer to an all-cash transaction. That increases the financial strain, since WBD shareholders won’t receive Netflix stock. Netflix also said it would suspend share buybacks to help finance the acquisition — removing a meaningful EPS tailwind after repurchasing nearly $9.2 billion of stock in 2025.

Perhaps the biggest question is whether the deal will close. It appears likely to face significant antitrust scrutiny, and regulatory approval is far from certain. There’s also a real chance that Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ: PSKY) increases its bid above the current $30 per share, which could derail Netflix’s attempt to acquire WBD.

Analysts Eye +35% Gains, But Uncertainty Shrouds NFLX

The consensus price target on Netflix currently sits near $121, implying substantial upside.

Many analysts updated their targets on Jan. 21 after the earnings release; the price targets published that day averaged about $117, still implying strong upside of roughly 38%.

Despite these optimistic targets, the market remains wary — likely because of the acquisition uncertainty and questions about future growth. While near-term risks are real, the stock could be too cheap to ignore.

Netflix’s forward P/E of roughly 27x is the lowest since October 2023, suggesting the shares are trading at a relative discount.

If Netflix can successfully close and integrate WBD, the long-term benefits could be material, tilting the outlook for shares to the upside. For now, investors must weigh the sizable potential rewards against meaningful regulatory and execution risks.

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