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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media

Will 2026 Mark a Turnaround for Costco?

Authored by Jordan Chussler. First Published: 12/3/2025. 

Key Points

• Costco has dealt with numerous headwinds this year, including tariffs and souring consumer sentiment, resulting in a year-to-date gain of just 1.34%.
• Despite that, Costco has beat on earnings nine of the last 10 quarters. 
• The company could turn a corner in 2026, supported by strong fundamentals, bullish price targets from analysts, and negligible short interest.

2025 has been a mixed bag for consumer staplescompanies in the retail space. While Target’s (NYSE: TGT) well-documented struggles have produced a year-to-date (YTD) loss of more than 34%, others have fared much better.

Walmart (NYSE: WMT), for example, has shown an ability to adapt to President Trump’s tariff policies and shifting consumer sentiment. The company—a dividend king, the largest grocer in the U.S., and an emerging e-commerce disruptor—has posted a YTD gain of nearly 25%.

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Membership-only warehouse club Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) sits somewhere in the middle with a modest 1.34% YTD gain. So far in 2025, shareholders have endured corrections exceeding 17%, 12% and 8%, but with the calendar about to turn to 2026, current and prospective investors are hopeful for a bounce-back year driven by Costco’s loyal members, solid fundamentals and bullish Wall Street forecasts.

Costco Has Adapted to Tariffs and Continued to Expand

On Monday, it was reported that Costco is suing the Trump administration and seeking a refund for import taxes that the U.S. Court of International Trade and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit have deemed “illegal.” While the litigation may take months to resolve, it highlights the broader challenges the company has faced—and how it has navigated them.

A key response has been expanding Costco’s private-label brand, Kirkland Signature, which celebrated its 30th anniversary in 2025. According to president and CEO Ron Vachris’s fiscal year (FY) 2025 Q4 earnings call, “Kirkland Signature sales penetration continues to increase, bringing even more high-quality value to our members while offsetting potentially inflationary impacts from tariffs.”

That strategy has proven effective: Costco broadened its Kirkland Signature offerings to provide high-quality alternatives to some tariff-impacted goods. CFO Gary Millerchip said those products typically deliver 15% to 20% better value compared with national brands of equal quality. In Q4 alone, Costco introduced more than 30 new Kirkland Signature items, while ancillary businesses—including pharmacy, optical and hearing aid operations—posted strong quarters. Vachris also noted that Costco’s merchants adjusted plans to mitigate tariff impacts for the warehouse chain.

The company continued its growth trajectory. In FY 2025, Costco opened 27 new warehouses, bringing its total to 914, and plans call for 35 additional locations in FY 2026 across domestic and international markets. Costco has also been expanding its e-commerce presence: online sales topped $19.6 billion (a 15% year-over-year increase), and digitally enabled sales surpassed $27 billion for FY 2025.

Costco’s Strong Fundamentals Have Remained Intact

Costco’s core business—selling memberships—remains resilient, with renewal rates around 90% in the U.S. and Canada. That helped the company beat on both the top and bottom lines when it reported FY 2025 Q4 earnings on Sept. 25, its ninth earnings beat in the last 10 quarters.

The stock was punished after the earnings call, sliding more than 6% before bottoming on Nov. 24. Since then, COST is up more than 4%, and investors have additional upside potential heading into FY 2026. Earnings are expected to grow about 9.2% next year, from $18.03 per share to $19.69 per share. In FY 2025, quarterly revenue rose 8.1% year over year to $86.16 billion, net income climbed to $2.61 billion (up more than 11% YOY), and paid memberships reached 81 million, up 6.3% YOY.

That growth reflects conscientious management and strong financials. From 2022 to 2025, Costco’s net income grew at an annual average rate of 11.15%, while annualized earnings per share (EPS) growth averaged 11.53% over the same period. Perhaps most notably, net cash from operating activities increased by more than 80%, rising from $7.39 billion in 2022 to $13.33 billion in 2025.

What Wall Street Thinks of Costco

Of the 32 analysts covering Costco, the consensus rating is Moderate Buy: 19 assign a Buy, 13 a Hold, and none a Sell. Analysts’ average 12-month price target of $1,027.75 implies roughly 11.47% upside from the current share price. That potential appreciation is complemented by a dividend yield of 0.56%, or about $5.20 per share annually based on current prices.

Institutional ownership remains healthy at 68.48%, with 3,106 institutional buyers outnumbering 2,596 sellers—resulting in inflows of more than $51 billion versus outflows of nearly $27 billion. At the same time, bears are cautious: short interest in Costco stands at just 1.63% of the float.

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