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RJ Hamster RJ Hamster RJ Hamster Fall Classic: What Game 6 Taught Me About Decision…
Fall Classic: What Game 6 Taught Me About Decision Making
November 14
by Mike Deegan
Blake Snell had it going. Facing elimination, the Tampa Bay Rays needed a big effort from their starting pitcher. Snell delivered. Through 5 innings he had struck out 9, allowed 1 hit and was holding a 1-0 lead. The Dodgers Austin Barnes, known for his defensive prowess, led off the bottom of the 6th with a harmless single. This brought Rays manager, Kevin Cash, to the mound. He decided to replace Snell with ultra-reliable reliever, Nick Anderson. The Rays did not get the outcome they wanted. Two runs scored in the 6th and by the end of the night the Dodgers were World Series champions.
Cash’s decision almost broke the internet. Everyone had an opinion. The majority of fans responded something like this, “How could you take him out, he’s dominating?” There were also supporters. This camp praised the manager for trusting the data and process that enabled the small market Rays to reach the Fall Classic.
I’m not here to debate Kevin Cash’s decision- he’s a terrific manager. What fascinates me is the process that went into the decision. We can all use this situation to become more thoughtful decision makers.
The Sorting Phase I’m convinced that countless time and energy went into what decision making expert, Annie Duke, calls the “sorting phase.” Cash, his staff, and front office members analyzed a plethora of scenarios, and there was a plan for each of those scenarios. For example, Cash knew Snell had his “A” stuff that night; it was easy to see. However, he was equipped with Snell’s history of facing an order for the third time (which wasn’t good) and that he hadn’t went past the 6th inning since July of 2019. He also knew the data on his bullpen including Anderson who’s career numbers are ridiculous. Despite Anderson’s outstanding numbers, Cash knew that his vertical movement and velocity were down in 2020 which was troubling.
Reflecting Upon a Decision In the 6th, Cash was faced with the option to stick with Snell or go to his highly effective bullpen. Both options had positives and negatives. Cash made the choice to go to the pen. Did he decide this because he believed it gave the Rays the best chance? Or, did he make the call because he was following the script and lacked the autonomy to pivot?
Duke, in her book “How to Decide,” reminds us that the outcome is not what makes a good decision; luck plays a major role. I heard Duke on a podcast where she discussed ways to accurately evaluate a decision. 1. Is it luck or not repeatable? In this case, luck was not involved in the process. The Rays were well-prepared for the moment. Luck would look like Cash deciding to bring in a position player to pitch and him retiring the side (which could happen). That would be luck.
2. Was new information revealed that can be included in future decisions? One thing I noticed was the lift in spirit from the Dodgers’ dugout that resulted from removing Snell. The Dodgers, for whatever reason, were really struggling. That struggle led to frustration. When Snell came out, stars Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger, commented on how they were relieved. Could this have shifted the momentum? Was the human element considered enough?
3. Was there a crucial piece of information that you didn’t go find? Only the Rays know this. It could be something like Anderson was really sore and tired and they failed to take that into account.
4. It wasn’t bad information you just modeled it wrong.This is simply making a poor choice. The information is in front of you and you go in another direction. It’s a miss. Misses happen. I don’t think Cash missed in any way.
If we want to improve, reflection is necessary. It’s looking at a situation and thinking, “how can we be better.” Annie Duke’s suggestions allow us to reflect without personal judgement.
If I were Kevin Cash, I would be considering what went into the decision. Was it bad luck? What information do I have now that will help me in the future? Did I miss anything prior to that moment? Did I make a poor choice with the information in front of me? It’s critical to work this process even if the result turned out in the Ray’s favor.
The question I would ask if I were the Rays front office would be: Are we empowering our manager (and others in the organization) to make a gut decision in a moment where there are two solid options? Did we provide Cash enough psychological safety to make a choice that goes against our typical structure when new information presented itself? Are there any holes in our decision making process?
Final Rant: “There are only two things that determine how your life turns out: luck and the quality of your decisions. You have control over only one of those two things”- Annie Duke.
Game 6 of the World Series gave me several things to consider. First, I realized how often we fall into “resulting.” We judge our decisions based off the result and tend to overemphasize bad luck and dismiss good luck. It’s a poor recipe for long-term success.
Second, I realized that if continual improvement is my life philosophy then I better develop a system for decision making and reflection. Making decisions without a process is guessing; I can’t allow that.
Third, I was reminded that in this time of uncertainty and complexity, how critical it is for us to get to know and trust in the people in our organizations. As leaders, if we are only interacting with people following a result, which we know are fickle, we’re being ineffective. If we only meet with the student and discuss their poor test result, or speak to the employee following a customer complaint we are missing the boat. This type of feedback is stifling . We’ll create robots, not autonomous thinkers.
Finally, we need to lighten up on others, and more importantly ourselves, post decision. If we do the work in the sorting process we’ve done our job. The world is more random than we think. We are obligated to possess the humility to learn from the experience. It’s the only real way to hold ourselves accountable.
Mike
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