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Finding a Reliable Dividend in a Crazy Market

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Loyal reader since August 2025

Finding a Reliable Dividend in a Crazy Market

John Oravec, Research Analyst, The Oxford Club

This week in Safety Net, we’re highlighting a company with a decent dividend that is unlikely to be cut in the future. In fact, it’s more likely to be increased than be cut.

With everything going on in the world, it’s getting increasingly hard to find stocks that have stayed strong in this uncertain market. Yet as of this writing, while the S&P 500 has lost 5% of its value in 2026, this week’s stock has steadily grown by almost 10%.

That stock is Restaurant Brands International (NYSE: QSR).

The company formed in 2014 when Burger King and Tim Hortons merged under the new name and ticker symbol, with “QSR” standing for “quick-service restaurant.” Today, the company owns the Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Firehouse Subs franchises.

It pains me to potentially review Burger King in a favorable light (it was my first job at age 16), and I think the breakfast and coffee at Tim Hortons are terrible. But I can’t deny that, as a whole, the company looks pretty good on paper.

Restaurant Brands steadily increased its free cash flow from $1.2 billion in 2023 to $1.45 billion in 2025. Bloomberg expects this trend to continue, as it projects the company to add another $300 million to its reserves by the end of the year.

Currently, the company touts a $0.65 quarterly dividend, which comes out to a respectable 3.5% yield. The best thing about the dividend, though, is that it has grown every year since it was initiated in 2015.

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Restaurant Brands: A Reliable Dividend Payer in a Crazy Market

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March 25, 2026 | Unsubscribe

Hello!

We are continuing to monitor today’s alert as it works to extend its breakout.

Meanwhile, our alert from yesterday which opened at 0.186 reached a new high today of 0.50, up +168% in just 2 days.

This is in addition to Monday’s alert which rallied +44% the same day.

Congratulations to everyone who benefited from these moves.

Now, get ready for a new NASDAQ alert coming tomorrow morning, Thursday at 9:30 AM ET.

This upcoming alert has a history of high volatility, which has previously led to sharp rallies when momentum builds.

We believe this new alert is an under-the-radar opportunity with a compelling chart setup.

In addition, the company recently announced multiple developments.

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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for March 25th

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ASML’s $8B Deal: More Than a Purchase, It’s a Prophecy

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

In the semiconductor industry, capital follows conviction. Companies place multi-billion-dollar bets not on where the market is today, but where it will be years from now. One such bet was just placed, and it is sending a powerful signal throughout the entire technology sector. ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML), the linchpin of the global chipmaking ecosystem, has secured a landmark order from memory chip leader SK Hynix valued at $7.97 billion.

This is not a simple equipment transaction. It is a calculated, multi-year strategic investment that represents one of the most significant votes of confidence in the future of artificial intelligence (AI) hardware. An expenditure of this magnitude provides a clear and unambiguous indicator that the insatiable demand for the advanced technology powering the world’s most complex AI models is not just continuing, it is accelerating.

The Technology Behind the Transaction

The specifics of the agreement reveal its strategic depth. The $7.97 billion commitment is for ASML’s most advanced and expensive Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, with deliveries scheduled to extend through the end of 2027. For a capital goods company like ASML, a multi-year order backlog of this scale is profoundly important. It provides exceptional long-term revenue visibility, insulating ASML’s financial outlook from the short-term whims of the market and giving investors a clear view of future earnings potential.

The reason for this investment can be traced directly to the technological demands of the AI revolution. SK Hynix is a crucial supplier of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and its primary customer is AI-chip titan NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA). The connection between these technologies is direct and essential:

Artificial Intelligence modelsrequire immense computational power, which is provided by specialized Graphics Processing Units (GPUs).
GPUs are only as powerful as the memory they are paired with. To handle trillions of data points, they need HBM, an advanced form of memory that stacks chips vertically to create a super-fast, wide pathway for data to travel to the processor.
Building these complex, 3D-stacked HBM chips with ever-increasing density requires etching circuits so small and precise that it is physically impossible with older Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) technology. The only tool capable of this task is ASML’s EUV lithography machine, which uses a much shorter wavelength of light to print these impossibly intricate designs.

Therefore, SK Hynix’s purchase is not optional; it is essential for its roadmap. SK Hynix is securing the sole means of production for the high-margin, indispensable memory chips that the AI industry is built upon. This confirms that the AI hardware build-out is a long-term structural supercycle, not a fleeting trend.

A Premium Price for an Unrivaled Position

The SK Hynix deal immediately reinforced what Wall Street already knew: ASML occupies one of the most enviable positions in any industry.

ASML’s current analyst ratings of Buy and Overweight were quickly reaffirmed, supported by data from Asian supply chains that point to a healthy and durable memory demand cycle driven by massive investments in AI server infrastructure.

This confidence stems from ASML’s unassailable competitive advantage. ASML operates a functional monopoly on EUV technology, a position it has built over decades of research and billions in investment. This creates an enormous barrier to entry, giving ASML immense pricing power and making it a non-negotiable partner for every major advanced chipmaker, from TSMC (NYSE: TSM) and Samsung (OTCMKTS: SSNLF) to Intel (NASDAQ: INTC).

This dominant market position is reflected in its stock’s premium valuation. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio frequently exceeding 50, ASML is not a traditional value stock. However, this multiple clearly reflects its unique standing. Investors are paying a premium for a business with:

Unrivaled Market Control: A technological moat that is perhaps the widest in the entire tech sector.
A Clear Growth Trajectory: Its future is directly tied to the biggest technological shifts of our time, including AI, high-performance computing, and the Internet of Things.
Exceptional Profitability: ASML generates a remarkable return on equity of over 48% and converts a high percentage of its revenue into free cash flow.

This financial strength allows ASML to aggressively reward its shareholders. ASML has a well-established policy of returning capital through a consistently growing dividend and a substantial share buyback program. These buybacks not only return cash to investors but also reduce the number of shares outstanding, which can help boost earnings per share over time and provide steady support for the stock price.

The Architect of the AI Age

The historic $7.97 billion order from SK Hynix serves as more than just a record on ASML’s books. It is a powerful, tangible validation that the foundational investment cycle for the AI revolution is gaining momentum. The deal reinforces ASML’s unique and indispensable role in the market; it is not merely a supplier, but the essential architect providing the tools to build the digital infrastructure of tomorrow. For investors, this multi-billion-dollar commitment cuts through the market noise, reduces uncertainty, and confirms that as long as the world demands more intelligent and capable technology, its future will be etched by ASML. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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Autonomous Security and the New AI Arms Race

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

The cybersecurity battlefield has fundamentally and irrevocably changed. A new class of autonomous artificial intelligence (AI), known as agentic AI, is being rapidly adopted by businesses to drive unprecedented productivity. However, this powerful technology brings with it an urgent and escalating threat: Malicious actors are already weaponizing these tools to create cyberattacks that operate at a speed, scale, and level of sophistication beyond human capability to manage.

This new reality has triggered a non-negotiable, industry-wide spending cycle. The era of relying on human-led security teams to manually triage alerts is over. To survive and operate, enterprises must now invest heavily in autonomous defense systems that can fight AI with AI.

This fundamental market shift has created a massive investment opportunity. At the absolute forefront are two industry titans, CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW), which have just launched pioneering platforms to dominate this new frontier. Their strategic moves serve as a powerful and immediate catalyst, positioning both companies for a new wave of significant, long-term growth.

CrowdStrike: Unleashing a Data-Fueled Growth Engine

CrowdStrike has built its reputation on speed and intelligence, and its latest move into autonomous security is a decisive doubling down on those core strengths. The company recently unveiled its Agentic MDR platform, an AI-driven service that automates the entire lifecycle of threat detection, investigation, and response. Instead of simply alerting overwhelmed human analysts to a problem, this system is designed to autonomously handle security incidents, operating at the machine speed required to counter AI-powered attacks.

The Agentic MDR platform is the logical evolution of CrowdStrike’s primary competitive advantage: its data. The cybersecurity firm’s cloud-native Falcon platform is powered by its proprietary Threat Graph, a massive database that processes trillions of security-related events each week.

This immense, real-time dataset is the fuel that trains its AI models, giving them an unparalleled understanding of the threat landscape. A security AI is only as good as the data it learns from, and CrowdStrike’s data reservoir creates a significant and durable competitive moat.

For investors, this launch directly reinforces CrowdStrike’s high-growth narrative. CrowdStrike is already expanding at an impressive pace, with year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth of nearly 24%. The introduction of Agentic MDR creates a powerful new incentive for enterprises to adopt the Falcon platform and for existing customers to add more high-margin services, directly addressing the widespread industry problem of alert fatigue. This provides a clear pathway for the company to accelerate its already strong growth in annual recurring revenue, offering a firm justification for its growth-oriented valuation and a compelling catalyst for CrowdStrike’s stock price.

Palo Alto Networks: The Profitable AI Security Fortress

While CrowdStrike focuses on data-fueled speed, Palo Alto Networks is leveraging its vast market dominance and comprehensive approach to become the indispensable security partner for the AI-powered enterprise.

Palo Alto Networks recently launched its Prisma AIRS 3.0 platform, which goes beyond simple threat response to secure the entire lifecycle of AI agents. It is designed to help organizations discover all the AI tools being used across their network, assess the associated risks, and apply consistent security policies from a single console.

This move is the capstone to Palo Alto Networks’ highly successful platformization strategy. The company’s core thesis is that enterprises—especially at the Fortune 500 level—are tired of managing dozens of disparate security vendors. By offering a single, integrated platform that covers everything from network firewalls to cloud security and now agentic AI, Palo Alto Networks makes its ecosystem incredibly sticky. Once a large company adopts its platform, the costs and complexity of switching to a competitor become prohibitively high, locking in long-term revenue streams.

This strategy has created a financial fortress. For investors, Prisma AIRS 3.0 is a catalyst for deepening customer relationships and driving predictable, long-term growth. Palo Alto Networks is already a highly profitable company, with a net margin of approximately 13%and a history of generating robust free cash flow. This new, all-encompassing AI security solution is designed to increase the lifetime value of its massive customer base and further expand margins, providing a durable foundation for Palo Alto’s stock price and cementing its status as a blue-chip leader.

Tale of the Tape: A Data-Driven Comparison

While both CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are poised to benefit from the AI security boom, they offer different investment profiles. A look at their key metrics reveals a classic growth-versus-stability matchup.

Market Capitalization: Both companies are approaching mega cap status, but Palo Alto Networks is currently larger at approximately $128 billion compared to CrowdStrike’s $100 billion valuation.
Revenue Growth (YOY):CrowdStrike leads with a rapid growth rate of around 24%, while Palo Alto Networks shows a more mature but still strong growth of approximately 15%.
Profitability (Net Margin): Here, the roles reverse. Palo Alto Networks is solidly profitable with a net margin of around 13%, whereas CrowdStrike is still prioritizing growth and currently has a negative net margin.
Go-to-Market Strategy:CrowdStrike employs a land-and-expand model, winning customers with its best-in-class endpoint solution and upselling them to new modules. Palo Alto Networks leverages its incumbency in the enterprise to drive a platform consolidation play.
Core Advantage: The investment case for CrowdStrike is built on its AI-native data advantage and agility. For Palo Alto Networks, it is the strength of its entrenched, all-in-one enterprise platform and its established profitability.

Choosing Your Champion for the Next Wave of Cybersecurity

The shift to autonomous security is no longer a distant future; it is a present reality, creating a powerful and durable tailwind for the entire cybersecurity industry. For investors, the debate is not if this market will generate substantial returns, but how one wishes to capture that growth. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks represent two distinct but equally compelling paths forward.

For the investor prioritizing aggressive growth and innovation, CrowdStrike offers a more focused bet on a best-of-breed, data-centric approach to AI security. Its potential to continue taking market share at a rapid pace presents an opportunity for explosive, market-beating returns.

For the investor seeking stability and market leadership, Palo Alto Networks represents the fortified incumbent. Its deep enterprise entrenchment, proven profitability, and all-in-one platform strategy create a formidable moat that offers a more predictable, long-term growth trajectory.

Ultimately, the choice depends on an individual’s investment strategy. What is clear is that the AI security market is a rising tide set to lift both of these ships. The recent platform launches are the catalysts that confirm both CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are on the right side of the most important trend in technology, making them formidable contenders for any portfolio geared toward the future. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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HP Is Positioning Itself for the AI Gold Rush’s Second Act

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

The market’s attention has been captured by the meteoric rise of companies powering the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Semiconductor and software firms have seen their valuations soar as they build the digital infrastructure for this new era.

While this initial pick-and-shovel phase has created immense wealth, it has also pushed valuations to levels that leave many investors seeking a more grounded entry point. This raises a critical question: After the initial AI gold rush, where is the sustainable value?

As the foundations of AI are laid, a second, more practical wave is beginning to form. This next phase of the revolution will not be confined to massive data centers; it will unfold on every desk in every office around the world.

For businesses to truly harness the power of AI, they will need a new generation of intelligent, secure, and powerful hardware. This sets the stage for a massive corporate upgrade cycle, creating a compelling opening for the legacy companies that build the tools of modern work. In that vein, HP Inc. (NYSE: HPQ) is positioning itself squarely in the path of this trend, offering a unique, value-driven way to invest in the tangible application of AI.

Rebuilding the Office: HP’s AI-Powered Arsenal

The shift towards AI-powered business operations makes a hardware refresh cycle not just likely but inevitable. The concept of the AI PC is central to this transition. Running AI applications directly on a user’s device provides critical advantages for businesses, including superior data security by keeping sensitive information off the cloud, faster performance for real-time analysis, and reduced data latency.

As companies compete on efficiency, equipping their workforces with these next-generation tools will become a necessity, driving a multi-year replacement cycle for a global fleet of commercial computers.

HP has moved aggressively to meet this coming demand, using its recent HP Imagine 2026 event to unveil a blueprint for the AI-powered workplace. This strategy is built on several key innovations:

AI-Powered Commercial PCs: HP is now shipping a new portfolio of high-performance PCs engineered for demanding local AI workloads. This move is not happening in a vacuum; key competitors like Dell (NYSE: DELL) are also seeing strong momentum in that space, which validates the immense scale of the impending hardware trend and confirms that market-wide demand is building.
Quantum-Resistant Security: In a forward-thinking move, HP introduced a new LaserJet printer portfolio with quantum-resistant security. This feature is designed to protect against the complex cyber threats that could emerge with quantum computing. For corporate buyers, where security is a top priority, this positions HP as a trusted partner capable of future-proofing their infrastructure—a key differentiator that can command premium pricing.
An Intelligent Ecosystem: With software like HP IQ, the company is creating a connected experience that allows its devices to work together intelligently. This goes beyond a one-time hardware sale, creating opportunities for higher-margin software and services revenue while increasing customer loyalty within HP’s ecosystem.

Why Wall Street’s Caution Creates Opportunity

While HP builds hardware for the future, its stock valuation appears rooted in the past. This disconnect is where the investment opportunity lies. HP’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at a modest 7.5 in late March. To put that into perspective, that number is a fraction of the S&P 500’s average P/E ratio, which often sits above 20. This suggests that HP’s stock trades at a significant discount compared to the broader market.

Beyond its low valuation, HP offers a powerful income component. The stock currently provides a solid dividend yield of 6%, or $1.20 per share annually, backed by a 15-year track record of consecutive dividend increases. HP has also demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns through a significant stock buyback program. This shareholder-friendly approach contrasts sharply with the current consensus analyst rating of Reduce, with only two of 17 analysts covering the stock assigning it a Buy rating. Much of this caution stems from near-term headwinds, such as cyclical memory chip costs that pressure profit margins across the industry.

Furthermore, a notable level of short interest indicates that many are betting against the stock. However, for bullish investors, this can be a positive sign. High short interest creates the potential for a short squeeze, in which positive news can force short sellers to cover their positions, rapidly driving the stock price higher. This pessimistic sentiment is the primary reason for the stock’s undervaluation, creating an opportunity for patient investors to buy into a solid company before the market recognizes its long-term AI catalyst.

A Unique Blend of Value, Income, and Growth

The widespread integration of AI into the business world is no longer a distant forecast; it is an active transition, and HP is supplying the essential tools for it. The company’s strategic pivot toward AI-native PCs and enterprise-grade security positions it to capitalize on a durable, long-term growth trend that could redefine its revenue and profit streams for years to come.

The investment case rests on three solid pillars: (1) a clear strategic pivot into a massive growth market, (2) a fundamentally undervalued stock trading at a discount to its peers, and (3) a robust and growing income stream for shareholders.

While short-term market sentiment remains cautious, the underlying fundamentals tell a different story. For investors seeking a sensible, high-yield entry point into the next practical phase of the AI revolution, HP offers a compelling combination of value, income, and long-term growth potential that is increasingly difficult to find in today’s market. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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One Path for How This War Ends (And What…

Iran rejects a ceasefire… how does this war resolve?… Luke Lango’s roadmap and timeline… a flurry of red flag headlines from private credit… it’s time to be careful

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The market is trying to price the end of a war, while the people involved can’t even agree on whether a deal is actually taking shape.

If that sounds confusing, it is.

Let’s back up…

If you’re feeling whiplash trying to follow the Middle East right now, you’re not alone.

On the one hand, as of this morning, markets are acting as if a resolution is right around the corner. On the other hand, the headlines are contradictory at best.

Here’s the reality as we understand it today, reflecting the progression over the last several days:

President Trump says the U.S. and Iran are engaged in “very, very strong talks.”
He’s delayed planned strikes and signaled that diplomacy is underway.
Multiple countries – Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia – are reportedly working behind the scenes to broker peace.
The U.S. has reportedly sent a multi-point proposal to end the war.

But…

Iran publicly denies that any negotiations are happening
Even basic facts – like who initiated contact – remain disputed
And as of this morning, Iran said it will not accept a ceasefire and remains far from any agreement

So, what do we do with this?

First, we stop expecting a clean negotiation.

Instead, we recognize this for what it is: a messy, early-stage process where proposals are being floated, rejected, and reshaped in real time – often through intermediaries, and often with public messaging that doesn’t match what’s happening behind the scenes.

It’s classic geopolitical theater, where both sides are testing terms, rejecting them publicly, and continuing to engage privately – all at the same time.

But here’s the key for you and me…

Markets don’t trade on official statements. They trade on perceived progress or failure.

Right now, that perception keeps shifting – swinging between progress toward de-escalation and renewed fear.

As I write on Wednesday morning, markets are cheering perceived “progress” (Trump’s ceasefire proposal) while ignoring “failure” (Iran’s rejection of that plan).

Let’s accept that this could change by tomorrow…or even later this afternoon – and then look beyond the immediate price swings.

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The path forward

To understand where this goes next, let’s turn to hypergrowth expert Luke Lango.

In his recent Innovation Investor Daily Notes, he stressed that the key to ending the war is for both sides to have a plausible case for declaring some sort of victory:

Trump needs to be able to say: we destroyed Iran’s nuclear program… and we came home having made America and the world safer.

Iran needs… to say: the Islamic Republic endured the greatest military assault in its history… and then exercised its sovereign decision to end the conflict on terms that preserved… dignity and existence.

In other words, this doesn’t end with “winning” or “losing.” It ends with a deal both sides can spin as a win.

Here’s Luke outlining what that deal likely looks like:

A mutual cessation of hostilities… Iranian suspension of the Hormuz closure… IAEA-verified acknowledgment that Iran’s weapons-grade enrichment capability has been dismantled… partial release of frozen Iranian assets…

Now, while this could be the case, in recent days, the market hasn’t fully believed it – even as the headlines increasingly suggest something may be happening beneath the surface.

One moment, oil is spiking, and stocks are falling on fears of escalation. The next, that move reverses just as quickly on hints of diplomacy.

But looking at volatile asset prices isn’t the best gauge of diplomatic progress. It’s the tail wagging the dog.

For example, yesterday, The Washington Post reported that Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey have been serving as intermediaries between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Arab officials helped open channels with Iranian power centers and pitched a five-day halt in hostilities to build momentum toward a ceasefire.

It wouldn’t be surprising if this conflict were moving along two tracks at once: a very public track of threats, denials, and propaganda…and a quieter track of indirect diplomacy through regional intermediaries.

The headlines from the last 24 hours only reinforce that possibility.

So, looking beyond the market’s manic price swings, Luke believes the real story is that a plausible endgame is taking shape: one where both sides can claim some version of victory, step back from the brink, and eventually give markets the clarity they’re still missing today.

What this means for investors

The day-to-day market action may stay ugly over the coming days.

For example, the U.S. has called up 3,000 Army paratroopers for potential deployment to the Middle East. Any escalation toward “boots on the ground” could quickly shift sentiment from relief back to fear.

Oil would likely spike again… stocks would sell off again… and yields would keep climbing as traders worry about a lasting energy shock.

But if Luke is right that this ultimately ends with a face-saving off-ramp for both sides, then this volatility is just part of the process – not evidence that no resolution is coming.

That’s why we separate short-term volatility from the likely medium-term path.

And importantly, Luke doesn’t just describe how this ends – he puts a timeline on it:

Our best estimate: a formal ceasefire framework within 10-14 days.

Hormuz… reopening within 21 days. Oil back toward $75 within 30 days…

We’ll keep tracking this.

Now, while investors are focused on a very visible risk overseas, there’s a quieter risk building much closer to home…

The cracks are spreading

I’m sorry, you won’t be able to get your money back right now.

Imagine hearing that as you try to withdraw money from one of your investment funds.

You were looking for steady income. Months ago, you were told about a fund offering a relatively safe way to earn 9%, 10%, even 11%.

But today, even after your request, the fund won’t give you all of your cash back.

Meanwhile, the value of the underlying loans in your fund could be slipping – and you’re stuck watching from the sidelines.

This is the uncomfortable reality facing some private credit investors right now.

Yesterday, news broke that Apollo (APO)– one of the biggest names in the space – has limited redemptions after a surge in withdrawal requests. In plain English: investors are asking for their money back…and aren’t getting all of it.

Here’s CNBC:

Apollo…told investors in its flagship private credit fund that it will limit withdrawals this quarter to just under half of requests, the latest sign of stress in the asset class.

That wasn’t the only headline…

Also yesterday, The Wall Street Journalran a piece titled “Big Banks Are Playing Both Sides of the Private-Credit Meltdown,” noting:

Private-credit managers are facing a continuing reckoning as individual investors stampede out of private-credit funds, worried about a downturn in software, a number of high-profile defaults and restrictions on accessing their money.

And it doesn’t stop there.

Also yesterday, Moody’s Ratings downgraded a major KKR-linked credit fund to junk status.

From Bloomberg:

The fund’s non-accrual rate, which measures soured loans, rose to 5.5% of total investments…one of the highest percentages among peers.

Three separate stories. Same message…

Something is starting to strain beneath the surface in private credit

Let me clarify up front – we’re staring at an imminent credit crisis. But what we’re seeing today marks a clear shift.

For years, private credit has been one of Wall Street’s hottest trades – a fast-growing, high-yield alternative to traditional lending. Money flooded in. Returns looked steady. Risks stayed largely out of sight.

But as we’ve been flagging in the Digestfor over two years at this point, that stability came with trade-offs:

Less transparency
Less liquidity
And in many cases, more leverage than meets the eye – and might be safe when market conditions change

Those trade-offs don’t matter much – until they do. And right now, they’re starting to matter.

If you’re a longtime Digest reader, none of this feels entirely new

We’ve highlighted the explosive growth in private credit… the layering of leverage… and the increasing ties between this “shadow” lending system and the broader financial world.

We’ve also shared repeated warnings from legendary investor Louis Navellier, editor of Growth Investor. For years, Louis has warned that if something were going to crack in this cycle, it would likely start here.

For example, here he is from updates last July and October:

If the private credit industry ever blew up because of economic weakness or whatever, or them just trying to out-leverage each other to outdo each other, the Fed would have to start slashing rates to save the economy…

Leveraged debt created the 2008 financial crisis, so we want to keep a good eye on this…

If private credit breaks, commerce breaks.

What’s new today is the frequency of the red flag stories coming out of private credit, as well as their tone.

It’s no longer about potential risk – it’s about early signs of real stress with real-world consequences.

Now, this doesn’t automatically translate into a broader economic problem. As we’ve noted before, the system today is structured very differently from 2008.

But it does suggest that one of the fastest-growing corners of modern finance may be entering a more fragile phase – one that increasingly overlaps with traditional banks, corporate lending, and even the financing behind today’s AI buildout.

And that’s exactly where Louis has been digging in.

He’s been tracking this risk for years. But recently, his focus has sharpened – not just on where the pressure is building, but on how it could ripple outward, creating clear winners and losers as conditions tighten.

We’ll be bringing you more of what he’s seeing – and how he’s thinking about positioning around it – in the days ahead.

For now, just know that one of the most stable-looking corners of the market is starting to show stress. And historically, that’s how bigger stories begin – quietly, then all at once.

wyattresearchnewsletters.com

RJ Hamster

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Iran rejects a ceasefire… how does this war resolve?… Luke Lango’s roadmap and timeline… a flurry of red flag headlines from private credit… it’s time to be careful

So, what do we do with this?

The path forward

What this means for investors

The cracks are spreading

Something is starting to strain beneath the surface in private credit

If you’re a longtime Digest reader, none of this feels entirely new

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