RJ Hamster
RJ Hamster
RJ Hamster
RJ Hamster
Biggest S&P 500 Warning Sign Since March 2025
Biggest S&P 500 Warning Sign Since March 2025
BY MICHAEL SALVATORE, EDITOR, TRADESMITH DAILY
In This Digest:
- The S&P 500 just triggered its first sell signal since before the Liberation Day crash
- Six popular stocks went risk-off yesterday – do you own them?
- A “coiled spring“ trade is setting up in one of AI’s most important stocks
The Iran war whiplash continues…
Yesterday, Wall Street saw President Trump’s social media post about “very good and productive” talks with Iran and slammed the buy button.
The S&P 500 rose as much as 2% before giving some of those gains back and closing up 1%.
Trump claimed his son-in-law Jared Kushner, along with his special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, spoke with an unnamed Iranian official to broker a deal. Reports later emerged it was Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament.
But the Iran government insists no such talks took place. And Ghalibaf himself denied the reports, calling them an attempt to “manipulate financial markets.”
Here at TradeSmith, we don’t waste time trying to peer through the fog of war. Instead, we follow what the market is telling us.
And right now, our systems are firing a warning on the backbone of the U.S. stock market – and millions of Americans’ retirement accounts – the S&P 500.
On Friday, the S&P entered the Short-Term Health Red Zone, meaning its bullish momentum has broken down.
That’s not necessarily a reason to sell your stocks and hide in cash. Short-Term Health is our most sensitive indicator. It’s tuned to the kinds of short-term momentum shifts traders follow.
And while it has signaled bear markets in the past (like 2022), it’s just as often triggered right ahead of short-term flushes that quickly get bought up (like last April, October 2023, and the 2020 pandemic).
Nevertheless, an important warning that the war with Iran is taking its toll on the bull market.
Recommended Link
Former $200 Million Money Manager Warns: “This Is the Exact Week America’s Market Cracks”
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This key risk-off signal that doesn’t fire often…
The last Short-Term Health red signal happened two weeks ahead of the Liberation Day tariff crash in April of last year – when the S&P 500 plunged 15% over four trading days.
The chart below shows the S&P 500 with its Short-Term Health status across the bottom.
The index also entered a Red Zone on Feb. 3, 2022 – eight months before the S&P bottomed at 25% below its all-time highs.
It also triggered during shorter spats of volatility in 2023.
So far, we don’t know if we’re looking at a repeat of the 2022 bear market or a hiccup like in October 2023. As you can see, Short-Term Health chops around in its Red, Yellow, and Green Zones during volatile years.
But overall, this signal does not fire when everything’s hunky-dory.
If you’re sitting on profits in shorter-term positions, this is your cue to take some of those profits off the table.
And while the S&P 500 flipping Red is key, the stocks within it are confirming the momentum collapse.
Six S&P 500 stocks triggered Flash Sell signals yesterday…
Yesterday, six stocks in the S&P 500 turned Red. That drives the count of S&P 500 stocks turning into the Red Zone over the last 7 days up to 35. Take a look:
Look at what’s on this list:
- Amphenol (APH) makes the electrical connectors that go into everything from fighter jets to smartphones to AI servers – it’s a bellwether for hardware demand across the economy.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI)builds the servers that power AI data centers.
- Lowe’s (LOW) is one of America’s largest home improvement retailers, a direct read on consumer confidence and housing activity.
- Truist Financial (TFC) is a major regional bank.
- Electronic Arts (EA) is one of the biggest names in video game software.
- Camden Property Trust (CPT)is a residential apartment real estate investment trust (REIT).
We have stocks in six different industries turning Red on the same day – while the market was going up.
The Super Micro Computer signal is worth a closer look. It’s been one of the most volatile stocks in the AI infrastructure trade so far this year.
It’s down nearly 30% over the past month. Before that, it was one of the biggest AI winners. At one point, it was up more than 1,250% from where it started 2023.
Meantime, watch this “coiled spring” trade in one of AI’s most important stocks…
TradeSmith analyst Jeff Clark has been trading options for more than 40 years.
He spent years managing money for about 100 of California’s wealthiest individuals before “retiring” to share his strategies with a broader audience.
If you’re a long-time newsletter reader, you’ll recognize the name. Jeff was one of Stansberry Research’s most popular analysts, heading up their Short Reporttrading service.
And since joining TradeSmith, he’s developed a software tool to find high-probability trade setups – the Convergence/Divergence signal.
Here’s the idea… Stocks don’t move in straight lines. Sometimes they surge in strong uptrends, collapse in fierce downtrends, or consolidate sideways.
Jeff quantifies these stages using three proprietary moving averages.
If you’re unfamiliar with the term, a moving average is the average closing price of a stock over a set number of days – updated daily as new prices come in. It smooths out the daily noise so you can see the underlying trend more clearly.
When a stock is going nowhere – drifting sideways without a clear direction – all three lines are averaging out roughly the same flat price action. So they bunch together in a tight cluster.
Then, when the price breaks above or below the lines, that’s a trade signal.
Think of it like a coiled spring. The tighter the lines bunch together, the more energy is building beneath the surface – waiting for a catalyst to release.
The opposite is true when the averages are spread far apart. That means a stock is trending strongly in one direction or another and vulnerable to snapping back.
Divergences have been popping up all over lately. It’s how Jeff was able to close out recommended trades at his Delta Report advisory with gains of 61.8% on (FIG) in 13 days, 128.2% on (NVO) in a little over a month, and 140.8% on (OSCR) in eight days.
One interesting setup I saw on Jeff’s Convergence/Divergence dashboard is in Arista Networks (ANET):
Arista is a cloud networking company that builds the high-speed switches and routers that connect AI data centers. Its hardware is a key part of the infrastructure of Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and other hyperscalers spending hundreds of billions on AI buildout. It’s not a household name – but it’s one of the most important pipes in the AI plumbing system.
The stock has been trading sideways since late last year, consolidating around the $135-$140 range after a strong run higher. During that consolidation, Jeff’s Convergence signal has flagged it as one of the most tightly wound setups in the market.
The break could go either way. But given the surrounding context – the S&P 500 in a Red Zone, the tech-filled Nasdaq 100 in a downtrend, and the broad deterioration we’re seeing across sectors – Jeff’s system shows the short side of this trade has historically tested better in conditions like these.
If ANET breaks lower from this coiled setup, it’s a stock to avoid outright. And for options traders, it’s a candidate for a bearish put trade.
But this is just one setup in a much bigger market story.
In a recent presentation, Jeff said this is the most dangerous market environment he’s seen in his 40-year career.
In fact, he’s identified more than 60 S&P 500 stocks showing the same pattern he tracked before the 2000 dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2022 tech collapse – a pattern he calls “The Breaking Point.”
And he couldn’t be more excited to trade it.
Traders who understand what’s happening can use this moment to their advantage, the same way Jeff has navigated every major market dislocation of the past four decades.
For the full case – what he’s seeing, which stocks are most at risk, and how he’s positioning his subscribers to profit regardless of which way markets go from here, click here to watch Jeff explain his Breaking Point trade strategy.
To building wealth beyond measure,
Michael Salvatore
Editor, TradeSmith Daily
RJ Hamster
Elon’s Private AI Empire: The Backdoor Under $100
A message from NXT Wave Research
Dear Reader,
Elon Musk’s “AI Everywhere” project isn’t inside Tesla—it’s a private venture with a global network of 150+ facilities embedding autonomous AI into devices everywhere.
Musk believes this could propel Tesla to become the most valuable company ever, worth more than Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google combined.
Private ventures like this are usually locked for elites, but I’ve found a legitimate brokerage backdoor—under $100, no special requirements, just a regular account.
Musk’s history proves he turns underdogs into giants:
- PayPal → Peter Thiel turned $1,700 into $55 million.
- SpaceX → valuation up 349,900% ($1,000 now worth over $3.4 million).
- Tesla → 22,000%+ since IPO ($1,000 to over $220,000).
- xAI → $0 to $230 billion in under two years.
This private play follows the same playbook—using Tesla’s proven autonomous AI “copy-pasted” across the world.
Watch my full video—I explain the story and give you 3 steps to profit, including how to claim that backdoor stake before the summer regulatory shift.
Here’s to the future,
Matt McCall
P.S. Ignore this and you could miss the biggest Musk-driven opportunity since Tesla’s early days.
Today’s Featured Content
Ollie’s Stock Won’t Stay a Bargain Much Longer
By Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 3/15/2026.
Key Points
- Ollie’s Bargain Outlet posted strong revenue growth in Q4 despite slim misses on earnings and guidance, with both comp-store sales and store expansion outpacing expectations.
- The Big Lots bankruptcy is creating a customer conversion opportunity that analysts believe has years left to play out—and isn’t yet reflected in the stock price.
- Institutional investors own nearly all of the float and have been steady buyers, backing a company that funds its own growth and trades below every analyst’s target.
- Special Report: Last chance: Reserve your spot while you can because… (From Brownstone Research)
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI)appears to have ended its stock-price downtrend. Q4 2025 results reaffirmed a solid outlook. Although the report and guidance slightly missed consensus, the shortfalls were small, growth remains strong, and the weakness wasn’t as surprising as it initially appeared.
Analysts at RBC issued cautious pre-release comments while emphasizing the company’s position, aggressive expansion and potential to outperform. They view the Big Lots bankruptcy and customer conversion to Ollie’s as multi-year events that are not yet fully reflected in the stock.
Ollie’s Outperforms Peers as Expansion Takes Hold
Elon’s Private AI Empire: The Backdoor Under $100 (Ad)
Elon Musk’s AI Everywhere project isn’t inside Tesla—it’s a private venture with a global network of 150+ facilities embedding autonomous AI into devices everywhere, and Musk believes this could propel Tesla to become the most valuable company ever, worth more than Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google combined. Private ventures like this are usually locked for elites, but I’ve found a legitimate brokerage backdoor under $100 with no special requirements, just a regular account, and this private play follows the same playbook as PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI using Tesla’s proven autonomous AI copy-pasted across the world.See the 3 steps to profit before the summer regulatory shift
Ollie’s delivered a strong quarter even though revenue growth fell short of consensus. Net revenue of $779.26 million was up 16.8% year-over-year—well ahead of competitors—driven by better-than-expected comparable-store sales and rapid store-count growth. Comparable-store sales (comps) rose 3.6%, slightly above RBC’s forecast, while store count increased 15.4%.
Margin trends were encouraging despite a slight miss, as spending control and revenue leverage offset store-opening expenses. Adjusted EPS missed consensus by two cents, but the shortfall was minor and earnings growth modestly outpaced revenue growth. Store-opening costs are expected to normalize, which should improve margin and earnings-quality visibility over the next two to three years.
Guidance was cautiously set and narrowly below MarketBeat’s consensus, though it still implies solid growth. The company expects revenue of $2.985 billion to $3.013 billion, with a midpoint just under the $3.0 billion consensus, and an EPS midpoint of $4.45 versus the $4.53 expected—implying roughly 10% top-line growth.
Ollie’s Cautious Guidance Sets Stage for a Bullish Revision Cycle
Cautious guidance can create upside for investors. Last year’s 15.4% store-count growth and plans for another 11.6% increase this year, combined with other tailwinds, could drive outperformance. Analysts also point to potential consumer tailwinds tied to tax season: the average transaction was more than 10% larger than last year, which adds liquidity to Ollie’s core customers. If the firm outperforms its guidance and raises it during the year, analysts are likely to follow with bullish revisions.
Ollie’s carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating with no Sell ratings among the 16 analysts tracked by MarketBeat. No immediate revisions followed the Q4 release, but several analysts noted growth potential and strength in loyalty members (up 12.1%) while flagging tougher comparisons ahead. Not all are convinced the Big Lots conversion will be a long-term boon, but the analyst group is broadly bullish on the stock, forecasting an average upside of roughly 30%. As of early March, Ollie’s trades below the low end of the analysts’ range, underscoring a deep-value opportunity and potential for a rebound.
Institutional ownership highlights the opportunity: institutions own nearly all of this stock and add on a quarterly basis. Their reasons include a strong balance sheet, self-funded growth, an attractive growth outlook and solid cash flow. The potential for capital returns adds another layer of appeal.
The company doesn’t pay a dividend, choosing instead to reinvest in the business, but it repurchases shares at a rate sufficient to offset dilution. Share count is declining gradually, providing a base for future per-share gains. Industry leaders such as TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) are well-known for dividends and buybacks—a status Ollie’s appears to be growing into.
Ollie’s Stock Price Bounces From Rock Bottom
Ollie’s stock hit a low late in 2025, rebounded and retested that level in early 2026. After the guidance update, shares rose more than 5%, confirming support at this key level. That level was a resistance target set in 2019, broken in early 2025, and is now acting as strong support. The likely outcome is continued advancement through 2026, with the potential to accelerate as the year progresses.
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RJ Hamster
Trump Said Iran Wanted A Deal. Iran Started Charging…
One Truth Social Post Sent The Dow Up 1,000 Points.
24 Hours Later, Reality Hit.
Monday morning, Trump posted this: “I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations.”
Markets exploded. The Dow surged 631 points (+1.38%) to close at 46,208. The S&P jumped 1.15%. The Nasdaq gained 1.38%. Oil crashed from $114 to $101. Gold fell 10% at one point as traders dumped safe havens.
Every single sector finished green for the first time in weeks. The Russell 2000 jumped 3% and exited correction territory in a single day.
Iran immediately denied it. “There is been no negotiation and there is no negotiation,” their foreign ministry said. State TV ran graphics saying “Trump retreats” and “backed down out of fear.”
But markets didn’t care. They rallied anyway on hope.
Iran Just Started Charging Ships $2 Million To Use
The Strait Of Hormuz.
While markets were celebrating Monday, Iran was doing the opposite of “opening” the Strait. They started charging ships $2 million per voyage to cross.
Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi announced it on state TV Sunday: “Collecting $2 million as transit fees from some vessels crossing the strait reflects Iran’s strength.” He called it a “new concept of sovereignty” after 47 years.
Some ships have already paid. The currency and mechanism are unclear. But Iran is floating the idea of formalizing this as a permanent toll after the war ends.
India got four LPG tankers through, then publicly said “international law guarantees freedom of navigation—no one can levy any fee.” Prime Minister Modi called Trump today to discuss it.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are calling it “unacceptable” because it weaponizes their main export route. China, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Iraq are negotiating with Iran for “approved vessel” status.
Tuesday, markets gave back Monday’s gains. The Dow fell 38 points (-0.1%). The S&P dropped 0.3%. The Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Oil climbed back to $91-103.
Only 16 Ships Crossed The Strait Last Week.
Normally It’s 300+.
Here’s the number that matters: Maritime intelligence firm Windward AI reported that Strait of Hormuz traffic is “near collapse.” Only 16 ships with visible tracking crossed in the past seven days.
Normally, 300+ ships cross per week. That’s a 95% reduction.
The Strait handles 20 million barrels of oil per day—20% of the world’s supply. It also carries roughly 20% of global LNG trade, plus vast amounts of food, metals, and other materials.
Iran isn’t “opening” it. They’re controlling it more stringently than ever. Vessels are rerouting through Iran’s territorial waters only with permission. Gulf energy exports are at recent lows.
And now they’re charging $2 million per ship on top of that.
Trump’s “deal” didn’t reopen anything. Iran just formalized their blockade into a business model.
Citi Just Said Oil Could Hit $200.
Here’s Why They’re Right.
Citi analysts published a note saying oil could eventually test $200 per barrel. Their reasoning: “The ongoing loss of energy supply to the global economy is so large—larger than the shocks of the 1970s as a share of oil supply—that it simply must be solved, either militarily or diplomatically.”
Timeline: They expect it must be resolved by “mid-late April.”
Until then: Brent could run to at least $120 over the next month. If the Strait stays 95% closed for 10 weeks, Goldman Sachs warned oil could exceed the 2008 record of $147/barrel.
Remember: The IEA’s director already said this crisis has cost 11 million barrels per day—more than the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks combined.
WTI is at $91 today. Brent is at $103. That’s WITH the IEA releasing a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Imagine where prices go if reserves run low and the Strait stays closed.
Gas is already $3.58+ per gallon nationally. If Citi is right and oil hits $120-200, you’re looking at $5-7/gallon gas this summer.
The Market Taught You A Lesson In 24 Hours.
Here’s What It Means.
Monday’s rally was based on hope. Tuesday’s selloff was based on reality. Here’s what you need to know:
1. Iran’s “deal” is a shakedown, not peace.They’re not reopening the Strait—they’re charging rent to use it. The $2 million toll is just the beginning. If they formalize this post-war, 20% of the world’s oil will permanently flow through an Iranian tollbooth.
2. Trump’s 5-day deadline expires Friday, March 28. That’s your next catalyst. If talks collapse (and Iran keeps denying they exist), we’re back to threats of power plant strikes. Watch oil and markets closely Thursday-Friday.
3. Don’t chase rallies built on headlines.Monday proved this. The Dow surged 631 points on a Truth Social post that Iran immediately contradicted. By Tuesday, the gains were gone. Trade the pattern, not the hope.
4. Energy stocks are the only safe harbor.Energy is up 31.8% year-to-date. It was the only positive S&P sector since the war started. Even if peace breaks out tomorrow, energy companies locked in months of $100+ oil profits. Chevron, Exxon, and the refiners already won.
5. Oil at $91 isn’t the floor—it’s the middle. Citi sees $200. Goldman sees $147. The IEA says this is worse than the 1970s. With only 16 ships crossing the Strait per week and Iran charging $2 million per voyage, this isn’t getting better anytime soon.
Bottom line: Monday’s 1,000-point swing was a reminder that 2026 markets move on headlines, not fundamentals. But Tuesday’s reversal was a reminder that reality always wins.
The Strait is still 95% closed. Iran is charging tolls. Trump’s “productive conversations” haven’t produced anything except more volatility.
-Good Morning Alerts
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RJ Hamster
Get “backdoor access” BEFORE the SpaceX IPO
MARCH 24, 2026 | READ ONLINE
Dear Reader,
Let me tell you how Wall Street really operates…
When a company like SpaceX is about to go public, the insiders always get first dibs.
Goldman Sachs…
Morgan Stanley…
The hedge fund managers…
The billionaires…
They load up on shares at rock-bottom prices.
Then — and only then — do they open the doors to regular investors.
By that point? The biggest gains are already locked in.
It’s a rigged game.
And it’s been this way for decades.
But Dr. Mark Skousen just found a crack in the system.
A “backdoor” that lets you grab a pre-IPO stake in SpaceX… before Elon makes the “trillion-dollar” announcement.
But space is limited…
Dr. Skousen is revealing the ticker for free.
Click here for your free “SpaceX” ticker.
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Publisher, The Oxford Club
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Exclusive Story
Credo Technologies Hits Bottom: Now Is the Time to Buy
By Thomas Hughes. Published: 3/9/2026.
KEY POINTS
- Credo Technologies is well-positioned to rebound, as its results and guidance affirm its hypergrowth outlook.
- Analysts and institutions are accumulating this stock, and indicate a high-double-digit upside is possible.
- Long-term drivers include an accelerated refurbishment cycle, with some estimates suggesting AI data centers will need new equipment every one to three years.
- Special Report: BREAKING: A C$26M Company Just Responded to the Pentagon’s Call for Critical Minerals. (From Small Cap Investments)
While near-term headwinds persist—primarily investor concerns—Credo Technologies’ (NASDAQ: CRDO) stock appears close to a bottom and is setting up for a rebound.
Those concerns focus largely on margins and customer concentration, with guidance for 2026indicating some gross-margin compression and a business heavily driven by three clients.
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The upshot: growth is expected to continue at a hypergrowth pace and margins remain strong, producing profits and cash flow that can be reinvested. Other key takeaways—drawn from analyst price targets and institutional activity—point to a solid support base, favorable market tailwinds, and the potential for roughly 90% upside this year.
Institutional Buying and Analyst Targets Point to Major Upside
The analyst reaction to the March 2 earnings release was mixed—including some price-target cuts—but overall leaned bullish. Those downward adjustments reflect caution while still aligning with an outlook for higher stock prices.
Even the lowest new target of $125 implies upside from current support, while the consensus of recent targets suggests roughly 50% upside. Looking across all fresh targets—both bullish and bearish—the broader consensus allows for a substantially larger rebound, and the consensus of trailing 12-month targets points toward about 90% upside.
Institutional trends are especially meaningful: institutional investors own about 80% of the company’s shares and represent the largest pool of investable capital. They have been net buyers for three consecutive quarters, with purchases ramping sequentially and reaching an all-time high in early Q1 2026. That accumulation reflects high conviction in an outlook that anticipates at least three more years of hypergrowth and a 2030 P/E multiple in the low teens.
The stock could easily rise roughly 90% and may ultimately climb 100% to 200% over time. Although the business is concentrated among three hyperscalers—Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and xAI—those customers are expanding capacity aggressively and are likely to stay in investment mode for years. Not only are new data centers being built, older facilities need upgrades, and all will require periodic refurbishing. Data-center products run in high-power, 24/7, high-heat environments and degrade faster than traditional IT gear; estimates suggest refurb cycles could be as short as one to three years, a meaningful long-term tailwind for Credo’s business.
Credo Technologies Stock Price Action Reflects a Bottom in Play
Credo Technologies’ stock struggled for traction in early March but now shows signs of a bottom forming. Lows hit ahead of the earnings report were retested afterward, followed by a rebound that confirmed $100 as a critical support level. Price action remains somewhat choppy—leaving the door open to another dip—but the stock continues to trade above that support while indicators show oversold conditions and waning bearish momentum.
The most likely scenario is that the stock lingers near recent lows while holding support and building a base ahead of a rebound. A decisive trigger may not arrive until the fiscal Q4 2026 results and fiscal 2027 (FY2027) guidance, but several interim catalysts could spark a recovery—particularly any bullish updates from the company’s primary clients.
Credo Technologies Earnings Release: Sell-the-News!
Credo Technologies’ Q3 earnings release prompted a classic sell-the-news reaction; however, the underlying results were strong and consistent with a thesis that the stock may have bottomed.
Revenue rose 52% sequentially and more than 200% year-over-year (YOY), beating MarketBeat’s reported consensus by nearly 500 basis points (bps) thanks to strength across end markets.
Gross and operating margins improved markedly from the prior year, helping deliver $208.8 million in adjusted net income, a roughly 51% profit margin, and a 1,500-basis-point bottom-line outperformance, with earnings up more than 300% YOY.
Guidance was solid as well. For Q4 the company provided revenue guidance with $425 million at the low end of the range—about 450 bps sequential growth and roughly 350 bps above expectations at that floor.
Margin commentary was the main sticking point: management expects gross margin to compress by roughly 350 bps. That headwind is at least partly offset by nearly 200% YOY revenue growth and the likelihood that management issued conservative guidance.
The balance sheet shows no obvious red flags. The company is well-capitalized, cash balances are higher, liabilities are low, there is little meaningful debt, and equity is rising. Equity has increased by roughly 200% on a year-to-date basis, with total liabilities sitting at about 0.1X.
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RJ Hamster
RJ Hamster
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RJ Hamster
🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for March 24th
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Trump to Execute Order 1776 (From Porter & Company)
Microsoft’s Next AI Leg: Can MSFT Still Outperform From Here?
Written by Chris Markoch
It may be time for investors to start shopping for discounted stocks. It might surprise some to find that Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is on the metaphorical clearance rack in relation to its cohort of Magnificent 7 stocks. In fact, MSFT stock is within about 10% of its 52-week low caused by the tariff turmoil in early 2025.
And it’s not just price; there’s a valuation issue to consider. As of this writing, MSFT stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 23X earnings. That puts it at a discounted level not seen since 2022.
This leaves investors with an intriguing dilemma. Is Microsoft a blue-chip stock whose best days are behind it? Or is this a stock that’s offering investors a generational buying opportunity?
The Sell-Off Hasn’t Been Entirely Unjustified
It’s been a difficult five months to own technology stocks. Many narratives have been layered on one another, making investors skeptical. The latest rumor centers around artificial intelligence (AI) wiping out the profit margins of software companies and software-related stocks.
There’s also broad concern about capital expenditures (CapEx) to support the growth of AI infrastructure. Analysts expect Microsoft to spend between $100 billion and $120 billion to support its ongoing AI buildout in 2026. That’s up sharply from prior years.
Microsoft also presents some company-specific concerns. For example, the company’s partnership with OpenAI looks shakier than it did 18 months ago. To put a dollar figure on that partnership, OpenAI signed a multi-year deal with Microsoft in October 2025 valued at $250 billion. That’s about 40% of Microsoft’s $625 billion backlog.
The problem for analysts is that OpenAI doesn’t have Microsoft’s balance sheet. That’s leading to appropriate concerns over how much of that $250 billion will be recognized.
Microsoft’s AI Monetization Faces Early Challenges
Investors also have concerns about Microsoft’s in-house AI development, specifically Copilot Pro. This is the paid, premium version of Microsoft’s Copilot AI assistant. It’s sold as an add-on to Personal and Family subscriptions at about $20 dollars per user per month.
Copilot Pro unlocks deeper integration of Copilot in core Office apps like Word, Excel, and Outlook, offers priority access to more advanced models (such as GPT‑4‑class models) even during peak times, raises or removes many of the usage limits in the free tier, and expands image creation, “deep research,” and other advanced features for power users who rely heavily on Microsoft 365.
However, the launch of Copilot Pro has gotten off to a lackluster start. In its Q2 2026 conference call, the company said it now has 15 million paid Copilot subscribers. However, that’s only about 3% of its 450 million commercial customers.
Why This Time Isn’t Different
None of those concerns matters if the company can continue to produce strong growth. However, that’s another area where analysts are becoming concerned. It’s not that Microsoft isn’t growing. The concern is whether it can grow as strongly as needed to justify the company’s CapEx spending and potential AI headwinds, particularly with their Azure cloud computing division.
But the better question is, can Microsoft afford its growth? The answer to that is a resounding yes. The company generated over $97 billion in free cash flow over the trailing 12 months. That’s not a company that’s in danger of having to raise capital to fund its growth ambitions.
With all that said, Microsoft presents investors with a growth story that may not be fully appreciated, and very much not priced into its stock. Beyond its compelling P/E ratio, the company now has a price-to-earnings growth ratio of around 1.4, which is approaching a level known as a strong buy.
Speaking of being a strong buy, analyst sentiment continues to be bullish. The Microsoft analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show that 45 analysts have a consensus Moderate Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $591.87, an upside of over 55%.
Key Support and Oversold Signals
The MSFT stock weekly chart shows a multi‑year uptrend still intact, with price recently pulling back to test long‑term trendline support near the rising 200‑week moving average around the high‑370s. The current consolidation follows a sharp decline from all‑time highs, suggesting investors are reassessing rich AI‑driven expectations rather than abandoning the broader bullish trend.
Volume has picked up on recent down weeks, signaling distribution, but not yet the type of capitulation that typically ends a major cycle. The 14‑week RSI has slipped into oversold territory near 30, a zone that has historically preceded tradable rebounds in prior MSFT pullbacks. As long as the stock holds above the 200‑week moving average and the long‑term trendline, the primary uptrend remains technically viable, with risk skewed toward a medium‑term basing phase rather than a full trend reversal. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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What Q1 Earnings Could Mean for the S&P 500 Uptrend
Written by Thomas Hughes
The Q1 2026 earnings reporting season is fast approaching, and all signs suggest it will be a good one. Headwinds, risks, and fears remain, but the outlook for growth provides a triple tailwind for the market, likely to continue in Q2. The tailwind includes earnings growth, an outlook for sequential acceleration, and steadily rising forecasts, setting the bar higher with each weekly round of estimate revisions. With this in play, the S&P 500 has almost nowhere to go but up and will likely resume its uptrend before the reporting period is over.
A Triple-Tailwind for S&P 500 Price Action in Earnings Forecasts
At face value, the consensus of estimates puts Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth at 12.5%, with approximately three weeks until the peak season begins. That starts on May 14 with a report from JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), the largest bank outside of China. The consensus for Q1 is down from the 2025 highs but up significantly from the recent lows, likely to continue higher as the season progresses, and outperformance is likely.
S&P 500 earnings tend to outperform the consensus estimate leading into the season by 300 to 500 basis points and have been running at the high-end of that range in recent seasons. The likely outcome is that Q1 results come closer to 15.5% and potentially higher, given AI trends.
Nothing in the AI data flow suggests that spending is easing, only increasing, as NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Micron Technologies’ (NASDAQ: MU)Q4 2025 last reports revealed. The likely outcome is that demand remained strong in Q1, leading these and other AI infrastructure names to outperform their already robust forecasts. Sectorally, the Information Technology Sector is forecast to produce the strongest growth at nearly 45% as of late March. The consensus for this sector rose by 1,000 basis points (bps) over the last three months, resulting in high expectations.
The next strongest sector is projected to be Materials at 24%, underpinned by datacenter demand, and then Financials. Other than those, no other sector is forecast to produce double-digit gains and three, led by Healthcare, are forecast to contract. Within those, the Energy sector is likely to outperform, as energy prices have skyrocketed, signaling windfall revenue and earnings. Healthcare, on the other hand, risks underperforming as burnout, employee shortages, rising costs, and cybersecurity issues erode results.
Guidance to Sustain Uptrend: Concentration Reemerges as a Risk
The earnings results will trigger market responses, but it will be the guidance that sustains them. As it stands, S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to accelerate again in Q2 and then sustain a high-teens pace through the year’s end. Guidance affirming this trend will go a long way towards invigorating market action and catalyzing new highs.
Concentration is among the risks for investors. The market rally has been broadening and may continue to do so, but the earnings outlook suggests that the focus will remain on NVIDIA and Magnificent Seven. NVIDIA continues to hold the number one position, accounting for more than 7.1% of the index, while the top seven names account for approximately 33%, and the next three bring the top ten to just over 40%. At these levels, investors should expect volatility to increase on both upswings and downswings, with NVIDIA at the center of any major market movement.
Oil prices are another risk, as they will impair earnings power across sectors. The bigger risk, however, is the impact of oil on inflation and the outlook for interest rate cuts, which has deteriorated. The market now prices in only a slim chance for rate cuts this year, which is a headwind for businesses and the broadening rally. Lower interest rates are critical for pre-revenue and pre-earnings businesses, while high rates pose hurdles, leaving only established blue-chip players to compete.
Advanced Micro Devices Best-Positioned to Rocket Higher
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) is the best-positioned stock for explosive gains this season. While its results are expected to be strong, investors will be looking at the guidance and updates on the upcoming MI450 product launch. The launch, slated for Q3, could accelerate AMD revenuegrowth to triple-digit levels within quarters. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Why Boston Scientific’s Big Dip Could Be a Bigger Opportunity
Written by Nathan Reiff
Medical device manufacturer Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) is seemingly off to a tough start to the year, as shares have plunged by 26% year-to-date (YTD) and by almost a third in the last year. But investors looking more closely at the healthcarecompany’s fundamentals may find that it has actually posted some notably strong results recently, including adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 80 cents for the last quarter, which was 2 cents above consensus estimates.
Indeed, a detailed look at Boston Scientific’s earnings suggests that the company is doing quite well—its electrophysiology (EP) segment, and Watchman products in particular, have grown rapidly and seem on track to continue delivering going forward. What’s more, the company is expected to release results from its Champion-AF trial by the end of March, which could have a major impact on the product’s addressable client base. Investors may therefore be tempted to buy the dip in BSX stock, though it’s also important to keep in mind why shares have fallen and what other risks may remain.
Is the Boston Scientific Dip Justified?
Shares of BSX plunged following its earnings release in February, despite revenue climbing about 16% year over year (YOY) and adjusted EPS beating expectations. Free cash flow also improved considerably, climbing by 38% YOY to about $3.7 billion.
So what was behind the selloff following earnings? It may be that investors were disappointed by the company’s 2026 organic revenue guidance, which forecast YOY growth of 10% to 11%. This would be quite a bit slower than 2025’s full-year revenue growth of about 20%.
Part of this is due to the near-term impact of the company’s discontinuation of certain products in its Axios catheters and other lines at the start of the year.
Management expects that this will slow down early-2026 growth by about 150 basis points.
However, much of Boston Scientific’s business remains not only intact, but growing and efficient. The company has guided another year of growing free cash flow, with $4.2 billion anticipated in 2026, as well as a boost to operating margin expansion and other metrics.
The Champion Trial Could Be a Catalyst for Reversal
What might help to reverse Boston Scientific’s downward slide in share price is the results of its Champion trial, which aims to measure the company’s Watchman stroke reduction implant against oral anticoagulation treatments. Investors should watch these results closely, as the addressable patient pool for Watchman could quadruple to 20 million if the trial shows promising outcomes.
The scope of that impact, should results be positive, is potentially significant for Boston Scientific over multiple years, as it would then be able to catalyze sales growth throughout the world by identifying millions of new potential patients.
There is another potential factor that could drive Boston Scientific’s growth: the neurovascular device company Penumbra (NYSE: PEN), which Boston Scientific has plans to acquire. Penumbra’s products would allow Boston Scientific an entry point to the mechanical thrombectomy market, an area in which it currently does not have any presence. The $14.5-billion acquisition is backed in part by a $6-billion term loan that the company secured in late February. Although this puts pressure on its finances, the surging free cash flow and overall fundamental strengths associated with Boston Scientific’s pre-existing business lines may mitigate any near-term concerns investors have.
Risks and Analyst Perspectives Are Worth Keeping in Mind
Of course, a major risk to Boston Scientific’s growth trajectory would be a negative result to its Champion trial. Not only would this essentially eliminate the idea that Watchman’s sales growth would continue to accelerate, but it also would have a severe impact on the company’s overall revenue growth plans, perhaps making its guidance of 10% to 11% sales growth for 2026 less tenable.
On the other hand, investors might want to note how optimistic Wall Street analysts are about Boston Scientific. Out of 25 ratings, 23 are Buys, and just two are Holds. This includes a number of Buy ratings reissued by institutions, including Stifel Nicolaus, Jefferies, and Truist Financial, all in March. Notably, some of these analysts have tempered their price targets for BSX shares, even while retaining Buy ratings.
Still, Wall Street expects that there is ample upside potential, as the consensus price target of $106.27 is over 50% above where BSX currently trades. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Check This Out: MAJOR BUY ALERT: Mar-a-Lago/Trump/Elon(From InvestorPlace)
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Avoid the Top-Heavy S&P 500 With Equal-Weight ETFs
By Nathan Reiff. Article Posted: 3/14/2026.
KEY POINTS
- Equal-weight ETFs may target the same basket of companies as popular funds focused on the S&P 500, Russell 1000, or other well-known indices, but with a unique approach to balancing portfolios.
- Equal-weight funds focused on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ-100 have underperformed their plain vanilla rivals, while a similar fund targeting the Russell 1000 has dominated year-to-date.
- Funds of this type offer added exposure to some of the lesser-known or smaller names in these iconic indices, but they may do so at a somewhat higher price tag than traditional broad index-based ETFs.
- Special Report: The move Washington made in 1934(From American Alternative)
A small group of AI-focused tech stocksdominated in 2025, helping push the S&P 500 up more than 16% for the year — but that concentration may have left investors exposed to undue risk. Fears of an AI bubble, combined with the potential impact of a prolonged war in Iran and oil-market disruptions on the data-center industry, have some investors worrying about overweight exposure to tech in their broad-market holdings.
One way to reduce that automatic tilt toward AI and big tech is with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that use an equal-weight approach. By assigning similar weightings to each index component, these funds limit the impact of overconcentration and increase exposure to often-overlooked companies, including smaller-cap names. The funds below are worth considering for investors who want less exposure to the heaviest-weighted corners of the market.
Equal-Weight Alternative to SPY: Higher Fees, Potential Protection
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The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA: RSP) fell about 1% the week ending March 13 — one of its worst five-day stretches in several months — but it remains up roughly 1% year-to-date (YTD), putting it ahead of the broader S&P 500 over the same period.
RSP’s strategy holds the S&P 500 constituents but caps individual positions so no single holding exceeds roughly 0.5% of the portfolio. That equal-weight approach makes RSP a natural comparison to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) and other low-cost S&P funds. Because the portfolios overlap substantially, many investors won’t want to hold RSP and another S&P fund at the same time.
RSP’s expense ratio is higher than many broad S&P alternatives — 0.20% versus SPY’s 0.09% — and liquidity is typically greater for large, widely traded ETFs like SPY. RSP’s appeal, however, is its ability to help weather shocks that hit the S&P’s largest names. Its dividend yield of 1.6% is another plus, modestly higher than SPY’s 1.1% yield.
A Growth- and Quality-Focused Spin on the QQQ
The First Trust NASDAQ-100 Select Equal Weight ETF (NASDAQ: QQEW) applies a similar philosophy to the NASDAQ-100. The NASDAQ-100, accessible via popular ETFs like the Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQ), includes many of the world’s largest non-financial companies, and QQQ leans heavily into its largest names.
QQEW takes a different route. It scores NASDAQ-100 stocks on growth- and quality-related factors — revenue, forward EPS estimates and cash-flow growth, among others — then selects the top 50 components by those metrics and weights them roughly equally.
QQEW has underperformed QQQ so far in 2026, but investors wary of QQQ’s tech concentration may prefer QQEW’s more balanced, growth-and-quality focus. That balance comes at a cost: QQEW’s expense ratio is 0.55%, more than three times QQQ’s fee.
An Equal-Weight Take on the Russell 1000
The Invesco Russell 1000 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA: EQAL) applies the equal-weight approach across the roughly 1,000 stocks in the Russell 1000 for an annual fee of 0.20%.
By weighting components more evenly, EQAL tilts the portfolio toward smaller names in the Russell index and produces a more balanced sector allocation than a market-cap-weighted Russell 1000 fund, which typically devotes about a third of its weight to tech and overweights financials. That tilt can boost mid-cap exposure relative to traditional Russell funds.
EQAL has delivered nearly a 5% YTD return and has outperformed the Russell 1000 so far in 2026. Still, because it charges higher fees than straightforward Russell 1000 index alternatives, EQAL will need to sustain outperformance to remain attractive to cost-conscious investors.
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