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A warning from a major retailer… More sour labor-market data… A ‘quiet’ hiring freeze… AI could be killing entry-level jobs faster than expected… What wins when the digital economy breaks…
A red flag from ‘real economy’ earnings season…A lot of our earnings season coverage this year has focused on the Magnificent Seven and other AI-related companies. And for good reason… the major stock market indexes are heavily concentrated in these names.They’re far from the only quarterly reports we’ve been watching, though. This week, a handful of important “real economy” businesses shared their earnings, and home-improvement giant Home Depot’s (HD) report has our interest today…Home Depot is a bellwether for the economy, as the company’s performance is directly tied to residential real estate and U.S. consumer activity.The news wasn’t great. Home Depot’s earnings fell short of estimates, though revenue came in ahead of expectations. The company’s outlook and management commentary sparked the most worries, sending shares down 6% today.Home Depot now sees revenue growing about 3% in the 12 months ending January 31, versus its previous outlook of 2.8% growth.On the surface, that seems like a positive thing. But Home Depot is including a $2 billion boost from a recent acquisition (building-products distributor GMS) that wasn’t previously included in guidance. That $2 billion will add about 1.2% to its annual sales growth. That means Home Depot’s existing business grew more slowly than expected.The earnings picture is even worse…Home Depot now expects earnings per share to fall 5% in its fiscal year, double Wall Street’s estimated drop. That would mark the third straight annual decline in Home Depot’s earnings.
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