RJ Hamster
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Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Publication Date: 1/7/2026.
The geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically on Jan. 5, 2026. Following the collapse of the Argyle Accords and the failure of diplomatic channels over the Essequibo region, the U.S. Department of Defense initiated military operations in Venezuela.
As the broader market absorbs this volatility, a clear signal has emerged within the Aerospace & Defense (A&D) sector: investors should not make broad, undifferentiated purchases of defense stocks because of this conflict.
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Instead, smart money is rotating capital toward companies that address two immediate, critical needs: replenishing depleted high-tech ammunition and strengthening regional border security. That conflict-driven thesis points to three companies: RTX Corp (NYSE: RTX), L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX), and Embraer (NYSE: EMBJ).
To understand recent stock moves in this sector, investors must first understand the battlefield.
This is not a counterinsurgency operation; it is a conflict with a state actor equipped with advanced Russian-made air defense systems, specifically the S-300VM Antey-2500. That system creates a denial zone, making standard airstrikes too risky for manned aircraft. Consequently, the U.S. military must rely on stand-off weapons — precision missiles launched from hundreds of miles away to destroy targets without exposing pilots. That tactical reality creates a direct financial pipeline to major U.S. contractors.
RTX Corp is the primary beneficiary of the stand-off strategy.
It produces the tools required to counter the S-300 network:
Entering 2026, RTX held a record backlog of over $225 billion. The removal of the Department of Justice regulatory overhang in late 2024 has allowed the company to focus squarely on execution.
RTX’s key advantage in the current situation is pricing power. The Venezuela operation comes after years of stockpile depletion in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. With global inventories critically low, demand for RTX products is relatively inelastic: governments must replenish supplies regardless of price, improving revenue visibility through the rest of the decade.
You cannot fire a missile without a motor — and that is where L3Harris Technologies comes in.
Following its strategic acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne in mid-2023, L3Harris is the dominant supplier of solid rocket motors.
There is a symbiotic relationship:
While U.S. primes handle long-range strike capabilities, Brazil faces a different requirement: containment.
The conflict in Venezuela presents a large stability risk for the continent, forcing Brazil to secure its 1,300-mile northern border. This military mobilization, known as Operation Roraima, began in 2024 and was reactivated on Jan. 3, 2026, to temporarily close and then reinforce the border between Venezuela and Brazil. That mobilization is a unique catalyst for Embraer.
The Brazilian Air Force (FAB) has significantly increased its presence in the border region, and its primary tool is the Embraer A-29 Super Tucano. This turboprop is rugged, inexpensive to operate, and well suited to monitoring the dense Amazon.
In November 2025, Embraer rolled out a substantial upgrade for the A-29, adding counter-UAS (anti-drone) capabilities. That enhances the aircraft’s operational value and revenue potential.
Embraer is also benefiting from a flight-to-quality in the transportation sector. The C-390 Millennium military transport recently beat the U.S.-made C-130 Hercules to win a contract with Sweden in late 2025. As the Brazilian military demonstrates the C-390’s reliability moving troops to the Venezuelan border, it becomes a live marketing case for other nations modernizing their fleets.
While the demand signal is strong, the supply chain remains a limiting factor. The primary risk to this bullish thesis is not political but industrial.
The bottleneck: defense contractors are struggling to convert large backlogs into cash. The industry faces persistent shortages in critical raw materials:
Investors should also be mindful of the war premium. Stocks often spike on the initial news of conflict. If the Venezuela operation is swift and surgical, short-term sentiment may cool. The longer-term thesis — the need to replenish depleted inventories — remains valid regardless of how long the conflict lasts.
The events in Venezuela underscore that geopolitical stability is less certain than it once was. For the stock market, that creates a clear divergence: the Arsenal of Democracy requires urgent replenishment, driving a multi-year growth cycle for RTX Corp and L3Harris. At the same time, Embraer is positioned to capitalize on regional logistics and border-security needs.
Investors viewing the A&D sector today are not merely buying “war stocks”; they are buying into a multi-year cycle of rearmament and regional fortification — but with the caveat that execution risks and supply-chain constraints could temper near-term returns.
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Author: Thomas Hughes. Posted: 12/30/2025.
Micron (NASDAQ: MU) stock has regained momentum as 2025 draws to a close. December’s price action produced a breakout to new highs, signaling trend continuation and suggesting the September–November rally may be only half the move.
Technical analysis often produces two targets for continuation breakouts—a base case and a bull case.
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The base case is the dollar magnitude of the rally that preceded the breakout, projected from the breakout point. By that measure, the math implies roughly $135 of additional upside from the breakout area.
The bull case applies the prior move’s percentage gain—about 115%—to the current position. Those calculations place Micron in a $385 to $535 range, implying roughly a 30% to 80% upside that could be reached before mid-2026.
There are warning signs the rally could cool, such as an overbought stochastic. That indicator, however, can remain elevated for weeks or months during a strong uptrend, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still shows bulls in control. Analyst upgrades and institutional accumulation further support the price action and encourage retail participation.
Micron’s rally was initially sparked by its strong earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. While the results and outlook were impressive, analysts have been the primary market drivers. December activity from analysts included a string of price-target raises and at least one upgrade, reinforcing the existing uptrend.
MU stock currently carries a consensus Buyfrom 37 analysts, and price targets have trended higher.
The consensus price target at year-end 2025 was consistent with fair value, but it climbed roughly 30% in the two weeks after the FQ1 release, with several high-end targets reaching $350.
That $350 level sits below the technical targets and is likely to be raised as the year progresses. Fundamentals point to a very strong 2026 and a healthy 2027 as GPU-driven demand supports revenue and earnings growth.
The surge in GPU demand from AI and data-center deployments has contributed to what many call an unprecedented HBM memory shortage. That shortage is expected to persist well into 2027, keeping prices elevated.
Contracted prices for HBM3 are forecast to increase roughly 15% in December and continue rising through 2026, peaking later in the year.
And that’s just HBM3—next-generation HBM4 stacks are estimated to command about a 50% premium. While capacity should expand later in the year and ease some pressure, it likely won’t meaningfully dent Micron’s near-term revenue and earnings outlook.
Micron is positioned for strong revenue growth in 2026. Fiscal Q1 (FQ1) revenue rose 56.7% year-over-year, and management guided FQ2 revenue to $18.3 billion–$19.1 billion. Because much of HBM capacity is already sold out, the odds of a large upside surprise to guidance in the near term are limited.
Looking further ahead, revenue growth is forecast to slow in 2027 and 2028 despite the long-term tailwind from rising GPU demand. If that GPU demand remains strong, management forecasts for 2027 and 2028 could be revised upward during 2026, which would be bullish for MU stock.
Valuation also supports potential gains. Trading below 10X consensus 2026 estimates, Micron appears deeply discounted versus blue-chip tech peers, AI leaders and the S&P 500. A move to average market valuation would imply roughly a 100% stock-price increase—and MU could exceed that if fundamentals continue to accelerate.
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