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RJ Hamster

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LLY Booms, Then Busts: Stellar Guidance vs HIM’S Oral Undercut

Reported by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 2/5/2026.

In its latest earnings report, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) once again showed why it is the world’s most valuable healthcare stock. As of the Feb. 5 close, Eli Lilly’s market capitalization exceeds $900 billion, making it worth more than $300 billion above the next-largest company in the sector, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ).

Shares jumped more than 10% on Feb. 4 after the earnings release, then were sharply whipsawed the following day, falling nearly 8% after an announcement from Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS). Despite that noise, with strong growth expected in 2026 and a potential blockbuster oral drug on the horizon, Eli Lilly remains difficult to bet against. All data is as of the Feb. 5 close unless otherwise indicated.

Lilly Provides Stunning 2026 Guidance, Catapulting Shares

Lilly’s Q4 2025 results were impressive. The company reported sales up 43% to $19.3 billion, well above expectations of $17.9 billion (which implied 33% growth). Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 42% to $7.54, beating estimates of $7.48 (which implied 41% growth).

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In Brief

Eli Lilly shares gained mightily after the company released its latest earnings report, with 2026 guidance coming in well past expectations.
However, HIMS stoked fears around LLY’s oral GLP-1 potential the next day, wiping out much of the stock’s gain.
After Lilly’s earnings, updated price targets imply significant upside ahead for the stock.

The standout, however, was Lilly’s 2026 guidance. Using midpoint figures, the company expects full-year revenue of $81.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $34.25 — growth rates of roughly 25% and 41%, respectively. Those figures comfortably exceeded consensus estimates, which projected about 19% revenue growth and 36% adjusted EPS growth.

By contrast, Lilly’s chief rival, Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO), forecasted sales to decline by 5% to 13% in 2026, highlighting a widening performance gap. Lilly’s share of the U.S. incretin market (GLP-1 and similar drugs) continues to grow: at the end of 2025 its share stood at over 60%, versus Novo’s 39% — a meaningful shift from near parity just a year earlier.

That divergence is backed by clinical data. A 2025 study showed Lilly’s injectable diabetes and weight-loss drug tirzepatide produced nearly 50% more weight loss than Novo’s injectable semaglutide, which helps explain Lilly’s advantage in prescriptions.

HIMS Rains on LLY’s Parade, Introducing Low-Cost Oral Copycat

Oral medications are the next battleground for Lilly and Novo. Novo’s oral semaglutide is already FDA-approved, and Lilly plans to launch its oral candidate, orforglipron, in the U.S. in Q2 2026, with broader international launches targeted for 2027. Many view orforglipron as Lilly’s next potential blockbuster because it can reach patients who avoid injections and help patients maintain weight loss after stopping injectables.

On Feb. 5, Hims & Hers Health announced it would begin offering compounded, copycat versions of Novo’s oral semaglutide, pricing the pill at $49 for the first month and $99 thereafter. That undercuts Novo’s monthly pricing by about $100 and is well below the $149 to $399 monthly range Lilly plans for orforglipron, depending on dose. The announcement prompted a 7.8% drop in Lilly shares on Feb. 5.

Investors worry both that Hims & Hers’ lower pricing could siphon demand from orforglipron and that Hims might attempt to offer a copycat of Lilly’s drug. While the impact on the oral market is uncertain, there is evidence Lilly can absorb the challenge.

UBS Securities analyst Michael Yee estimates there have been roughly 1 million prescriptions written for compounded GLP-1s, compared with about 100 million prescriptions across Novo and Lilly’s branded GLP-1 franchises. That suggests compounded products represent a small slice of total demand — meaning Hims could be a nuisance but is unlikely to dramatically derail orforglipron’s growth trajectory.

Updated Targets Eye 25% Upside in LLY Shares

With orforglipron’s potential launch approaching and continued strong demand for injectable products, the outlook for Lilly shares remains constructive. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $1,200 implies roughly 18% upside. Notably, analyst targets updated the day after Lilly’s earnings averaged $1,273, which would imply about 25% upside from current levels.

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Further Reading: Two AI Stocks Getting Quiet Attention (Click to Opt-In)

RJ Hamster

URGENT: Elon’s New Move Could Blindside Retirees

President Trump just approved two long-stalled mining projects tied to strategic U.S. minerals — including silver, which recently broke $68 after soaring 129% last year.

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Moments like this don’t come often — and understanding what’s unfolding now could make all the difference in 2026.

Special Report

Microsoft Slumps Heading Into Earnings—Here’s What Matters Most

Author: Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 1/23/2026.

In Brief

Microsoft stock remains under pressure as a bearish death cross pattern lingers ahead of the company’s Jan. 28 earnings report.
Investors should focus on Azure growth, AI monetization, and capital spending to assess whether Microsoft’s heavy AI investments are paying off.
MSFT valuation has become more attractive after the pullback, reinforcing the stock’s appeal as a long-term buy despite near-term technical weakness.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) stock remains in a three-month slide that began after the company’s last earnings report.

With only a few days left before earnings, MSFT has yet to recover from the bearish death cross that formed in November 2025.

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It could be headed for a double dip — a decline following a brief bounce. What does that mean for investors as Microsoft prepares to report on Jan. 28?

A death cross occurs when a stock’s short-term simple moving average (typically the 50-day SMA) crosses below a longer-term SMA (typically the 200-day). It’s considered bearish because it signals weakening momentum in both the short and long term.

Like any technical signal, a death cross is not infallible. For long-term investors, the opposite — a golden cross — can present a buying opportunity in quality stocks. Earnings reports can also spark swift reversals, so technical patterns are one input among many.

Microsoft’s Next Earnings Report Hinges on Azure and AI

Investors will be watching for signs that AI investments and cloud expansion are producing tangible results. Key metrics include Azure growth and whether AI workloads are driving incremental revenue rather than just shifting existing demand. Early adoption and monetization of products like Copilot and other enterprise AI tools could indicate longer-term productivity gains.

Capital expenditures are another focus. Investors will want to know whether Microsoft plans to continue heavy AI-related spending on data centers or signal a slowdown. Margins will also be closely scrutinized to see whether growth initiatives are sustainable without eroding profitability.

Finally, the tone of management’s guidance matters. Any reassurance on steady revenue and AI adoption could stabilize the stock ahead of a potentially volatile quarter — even if Microsoft doesn’t materially beat expectations.

Valuation Looks More Reasonable After the Pullback

One silver lining from the recent slide is that MSFT now appears more reasonably valued. The trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is roughly 31.5x, near the lower end of its five-year range and below many technology peers trading at 35x or higher. For long-term investors, the pullback may be an opportunity to add to a core holding at a more attractive entry point.

Microsoft’s business is diversified across productivity software, cloud computing, and emerging AI platforms. Even if some areas face short-term headwinds, the broad revenue mix and strong free cash flow help cushion the company from sharp declines.

In short, the market appears to be pricing in a moderation of growth rather than a permanent slowdown — which could interest disciplined investors focused beyond the next quarter.

Challenges to the Buy-and-Hold Thesis

A major risk to owning MSFT centers on worries about an AI bubble. Microsoft is spending tens of billions on data centers, yet even its leadership acknowledges there are challenges to work through.

The bearish case is that many companies may conclude AI does not deliver enough long-term value to justify building the applications that keep data-center demand strong. If that happens, even a cash-rich company like Microsoft could face earnings pressure.

How likely is that? It’s difficult to judge. Many critiques focus on generative AI, an area where Microsoft remains a leader. The next wave — agentic AI (autonomous agents) — is still in its infancy and could deliver the biggest productivity gains, but adoption may be less obvious and take longer to materialize.

Microsoft Is a Stock to Own for the Long Haul

MSFT can be considered a core holding for long-term portfolios. The stock has been under pressure for several months, but Microsoft is actively participating in every major technology trend in 2026, including many layers of the AI stack.

Pullbacks can be unsettling, but as the saying goes, “when in doubt, zoom out.” Here’s the one-year price chart for MSFT:

Now look at the five-year view:

Viewing performance over a longer timeframe helps put volatility in context. In MSFT’s case, previous pullbacks have eventually led to higher highs, making the recent decline potentially a buying opportunity for investors with a long horizon.

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Further Reading: Two AI Stocks Getting Quiet Attention (Click to Opt-In)

RJ Hamster

Bible Study 8:00 AM PST 02/07/2026

Hello All,

Please join us, our Zoom Link is below for this Saturday’s session at 8:00 AM PST 02/07/2026. I am blessed by the presence of each one of you in my life. We show gratitude to God by “giving thanks in all circumstances …” [1Thess. 5:18a]

We will continue our study of Matthew this morning. The study of [Matthew 5, 6, 7] is quite simply dense, but we will take our time, we are in no rush, we do not want to miss important elements of Jesus’ teachings. In this study session we will review a portion of [Matthew Chapter 5]. It is here that Jesus lays out His authority and His entire ministry. This is a brief transitional portion of Jesus’ message as He shifts from the Beatitudes to the Similitudes.

It is my prayer that you are able to join us.

Love, hank

Zoom Link:
For Study, Prayer and Fellowship – 8:00 AM PST 02/07/2026:
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82968961343?pwd=LzcwVjJKcWVESDRURlhDcXlNV0JUdz09
Meeting ID: 829 6896 1343
Passcode: 77299ere:

Bible Study Notes:

Study Notes:

02/07/2026 – Prologue – Big News – Pope Leo XIV has declared that different Christian faiths are already “one.” Further “We are one! We already are! Let us recognize it, experience it and make it visible!” He stressed how “different Christian religions share the same faith.” His remarks were addressed to the clergymen of schismatic and heretical churches, nominally the Orthodox and Anglican churches. Leo’s claim contradicts Catholic teaching by which the Church is united by the “same faith,” “same worship,” “same law” “and in participation of the same Sacraments, under the same visible Head, the Roman Pontiff.” Therefore, the churches that reject the authority of the pope, cannot be said to be unified, or “one,” with the Catholic Church. The Catechism of the Council of Trent (12/13/1545 – 12/04/1563) teaches, “It is the unanimous teaching of the Fathers that this visible head is necessary to establish and preserve unity in the Church.” In an encyclical promulgated on 06/29/1896, Leo XIII taught that Christian unity is grounded in shared faith, sacraments, and governance. The document explicitly rejected the idea of an invisible or merely spiritual Church and affirmed that full unity requires adherence to the authority established by Christ in the Catholic Church. “As we look toward the 2,000th anniversary of the Passion, Death and Resurrection of the Lord Jesus in 2033, let us commit ourselves to further developing ecumenical synodal practices and to sharing with one another who we are, what we do and what we teach,” Leo said.

[Matt. 5:21-48] – The Son of God reveals God’s original intention in the Torah – These 28 verses are transitional, dense and complex, but before discussing how to apply Jesus’ thinking, three issues must be addressed: 1) Is Christ placing His own authoritative interpretation of the Torah against current interpretations by the scribes? 2) Do we read Jesus’ teaching as “general truth” that emanates from the very heart of God, but fails to give explicit answers to specific questions that the Lord’s words address, whether 2,000 years ago or today? And 3) How can attention to 1/C context of Jesus’ teaching help us to understand what or what not He intends to say?

It seems clear that we should take our instruction from [v. 19] and not follow the Pharisees [v.20] to guide us through the 28 verses that follow. That point is frequently overlooked. We must accept that Jesus is expounding the true meaning of God’s OT commandments. Jesus’ teaching in [5:21-48] should be received as sweeping general truth and revelation from God. It is not case law! In all the covered six units we must make adjustments to avoid drifting into error. Jesus does not attempt to supply His disciples with teachings that cover every possible opportunity that a fallen human, in his sin, may create. NB – To be definitive, neither God nor Jesus produced an exhaustive list of man’s fallibilities.

However, those who obey Jesus’ teaching are like the wise man who builds his house on rock. [Matt. 7:24-27] Jesus’ distinctive role in [Matt.] is more didactic: He becomes the ‘one teacher’ who supplants all other rabbis who consistently manipulate God’s truth. [Matt. 23:8] In [Matt. 5:21-48] Jesus teaches on six antitheses and in doing so they become pointers to the original righteousness of the heart and thus intensifying the demand of God far better than the letter of the law. God always communicates an overarching principle, but man continues to manipulate – and always will! The Law of Righteousness, is used by God to condemn and He uses it to cover all who believe. We will see that God uses it to forbid murder and adultery, Jesus calls for the renunciation of anger and lust: where the Law poses regulative limitations on divorce and revenge, Jesus calls His followers to renounce these options. What Jesus is teaching here is not to allow ourselves to drown in anger, nor be angry without cause. To put this in perspective with man’s fallen nature we must read [Gen. 4:5-7]. “ Then the Lord said to Cain, “ why are you angry? [Gen. 4:6a] To get the full flow of God’s conversation with Cain read [Gen. 4:1-15 ] and then compare with [Matt. 5:21-26].

Where the law limits the obligation of love to the neighbor (the fellow Israelite), Jesus calls for love of the enemy. He is telling His disciples to “be perfect … as your heavenly Father is perfect” [Matt. 5:48]. This is the manner in which Jesus is said to “fulfill” the Law; He clarifies its inner intent, demanding of His followers a righteousness that ‘exceeds that of the scribes and Pharisees.” [Matt. 5:20] Matthew insists that it is Jesus – not the stiff-necked and proper Pharisees – who truly instructs His followers to do what the Law requires. Matthew’s summons to moral perfection can not be rightly understood as simply a call to obey a comprehensive system of rules. Despite his emphasis on the church’s order to teach obedience to Jesus’ commandments, he sees such teaching as aid to a deeper goal: the opening of an individual’s character and heart to the transformative work of the Holy Spirit. This might be more clearly stated as learning to use the language of virtues. We can not lose sight of the fact that Matthew asserts that the coming of the kingdom changes everything, especially the people, who live under its call to accountability. There is no question that living under rules and commandments will provide for an orderly structure for a moral life. But Matthew wants us to think that our actions grow organically from our character: “… a good tree cannot bear bad fruit, nor a bad tree bear good fruit …” [Matt.7:15-20] Jesus uses the ‘fruit’ metaphor in Jesus’ denunciation of the Pharisees who have accused Him of casting out demons: “Make a tree good and its fruit will be good … You brood of vipers, how can you who are evil say anything good?” [Matt. 12:33-34a]

Speech and action are the outward manifestations of what is in the heart. The most important thought within Matthew’s writings here is that Matthew is writing the inspired work of God and communicating God’s word to the folks of Israel. Matthew does not explain this systematically, but we are to follow the reasoning: Action flows from character, but character is not a matter of innate disposition, but it is a result of our training in the ways of righteousness. Those who respond to Jesus’ teaching and submit to His instruction will find themselves formed by the Holy Spirit in a new manner so that their actions will, ‘naturally’ be wise and righteous. They will learn the skills and discernments requisite to living faithfully. Understandably, Matthew is a man who made his living as a tax collector, a man often despised. He was a man in his society where he often found himself in the middle. ( Taxing entity – tax collector – tax payers) In writing his gospel he is once more in the middle. However, a careful reading of Matthew leads one to conclude that God was more concerned with community foundation than with the cultivation of wisdom and virtue in each individual. If we read the six antitheses with community in mind, we are able to see how essential those ‘six’ are for moral cohesion within our communities. AMEN (pg. 23-24)

Love, hank

Hank Hohenstein, OFS

Land Steward

161 Osprey Vista

Shady Cove, OR 97539
Cell: 541-973-5442

hankhohenstein@gmail.com

RJ Hamster

SABR Digital Library: Download your free ebook on Henry…

Henry Aaron, edited by Bill Nowlin and Glen Sparks

February 5, 2026

Dear Peter:

In celebration of Hammerin’ Hank Aaron’s birthday today, we hope you’ll enjoy this new baseball book from the SABR Digital Library:

Henry Aaron
Edited by Bill Nowlin and Glen Sparks
Associate editors: Carl Riechers and Len Levin
ISBN (ebook): 978-1-960819-60-4, $9.99
ISBN (paperback): 978-1-960819-61-1, $29.95
8.5″ x 11″, 184 pages

Click a link below to download your free e-book copy of SABR’s Henry Aaron:

PDF: To download the PDF file of Henry Aaron, click here (15.3 MB)
EPUB/Kindle: To download the EPUB file — for use on Kindles, iBooks, iPads, Nook or Sony Reader — of Henry Aaron, click here (11.4 MB)
MOBI: To download the MOBI version of Henry Aaron, click here (12.9 MB)
Paperback: Get a 50% discount on the Henry Aaron paperback edition from the SABR Store ($19.95 includes shipping/tax; delivery via Amazon Kindle Direct can take up to 4-6 weeks.)

“Trying to throw a fastball past Henry Aaron is like trying to sneak a sunrise past a rooster.” — Curt Simmons, pitcher

Henry Aaron is one of the greatest baseball players of all time, a great humanitarian, and a deserving subject for this in-depth examination of his life and his impact on baseball and the world. This SABR book includes twenty essays examining Aaron’s life and career as well as over a dozen detailed recaps revisiting significant games in which he played, from his debut in 1952 to his first grand slam with the Braves to his curtain call in Milwaukee in 1976.

Born in 1934, one of eight siblings, Aaron first joined the ranks of professional baseball players as a member of the Indianapolis Clowns of the Negro American League. He would eventually play 23 years in the National League, and win three Gold Gloves, one MVP award, and the 1957 World Series with the Milwaukee Braves. He was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1982, his first ballot, and to MLB’s All Century Team in 1999. Among his many career highlights, on May 17, 1970, Aaron became the first player to compile both 3,000 career hits and more than 500 homers.

But the moment that lives indelibly in baseball history took place on April 8, 1974, when he broke Babe Ruth’s previously unassailable career record of 714 home runs. As Aaron circled the bases, broadcaster Vin Scully told his audience, “What a marvelous moment for baseball. What a marvelous moment for Atlanta and the state of Georgia. What a marvelous moment for the country and the world. A Black man is getting a standing ovation in the Deep South for breaking a record of an all-time baseball idol.” Hate mail by the bagful followed Aaron during his quest to hit 715 career home runs and pass the legendary Babe Ruth. “Hammerin’ Hank” responded with class and a beautiful line-drive swing. He retired with 755 home runs, a .305 batting average, .555 slugging percentage, and .928 OPS.

This book represents the collaborative effort of 40 members of SABR, the Society for American Baseball Research.

Contributors include: Gary Belleville, Chris Betsch, Luis Blandón, Rich Bogovich, George Bovenizer, George Boziwick, Thomas J. Brown Jr., Alan Cohen, Richard Cuicchi, Dennis Degenhardt, Bruce Duncan, John Fredland, Andrew Harner, Andy Heckroth, Mike Huber, Norm King, W.H. “Bill” Johnson, David Krell, Dave Lande, Len Levin, Mason Linken, Chad Moody, Bill Nowlin, Tim Odzer, Tony S. Oliver, Robert Grant Price, Bill Pruden, Tim Rask, Carl Riechers, Dan Schlossberg, Tom Schott, John Shorey, Glen Sparks, Bill Staples Jr., Mark S. Sternman, William “Matt” Vines, Joseph Wancho, Kevin Warneke, Eric Marshall White, Ted Williams, and Gregory H. Wolf.

Having trouble downloading our e-books? Click here for step-by-step instructions and a short tutorial video on how to download SABR digital publications.

This email was sent to peter.hovis@gmail.com from the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR). If you wish to stop receiving email from us, you can simply remove yourself by clicking here to unsubscribe.

Mailing address: SABR, PO Box 1715, Milwaukee, WI 53201. Physical address: Cronkite School at ASU, 555 N. Central Ave. #406-C, Phoenix, AZ 85004. Website: SABR.org. Phone: 602-496-1460.

RJ Hamster

This is Bipartisan

Dear Mr. Hohenstein,

Thanks to your support for Judicial Watch’s unmatched election integrity work, we just scored another HUGE win for clean elections:
Following Judicial Watch’s federal lawsuit to clean up voter rolls in Oregon, officials there have announced they will begin the process of removing 800,000 dirty names from the state’s voter rolls.
That’s 800,000 fewer opportunities for voter fraud…which means that Judicial Watch lawsuits brought under the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) have now been responsible for removing 5.8 million invalid names from voter rolls nationwide.
The hygiene of Oregon’s voter rolls was particularly egregious. Our lawsuit exposed that 35 of Oregon’s 36 counties had overall registration rates exceeding 100% making this a significant victory for faith and confidence in the electoral process.
So today, I thank you for the important role you played in Judicial Watch’s latest win for honest elections. Your contributions are what fuels our world class election integrity legal team and the countless hours of research and preparedness which make Judicial Watch the country’s most effective election integrity litigator.
While I’m gracious for your support, I must also reiterate that our work cleaning up voter rolls is far from finished.
Our team estimates that there are still 24 million dirty voter names on rolls around the country.

Hello All,

Here is some good news. Please let me know if you would like more information.

Thanks, hank

Hank Hohenstein, OFS

Land Steward

161 Osprey Vista

Shady Cove, OR 97539
Cell: 541-973-5442

hankhohenstein@gmail.com