RJ Hamster
RJ Hamster
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RJ Hamster
McDonald’s Nears Highs in Flight to Defensive Stocks
5 Stocks That Could Double in 2026 (From TradingTips)
McDonald’s Earnings Could Cement Its Defensive Appeal
Written by Chris Markoch on February 6, 2026
Quick Look
- McDonald’s stock is near a 52-week high as investors rotate into defensive, blue-chip names ahead of earnings.
- Traffic trends from lower-income consumers and 2026 guidance will be key catalysts in the earnings report.
- Analysts remain bullish, with rising price targets and a whisper number above consensus estimates.
It’s worth noting that in a week when many stocks are getting slaughtered, shares of McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) are up 2.7% in the five trading sessions ending Feb. 5. That has MCD stock near a 52-week high. It’s a confirmation of two things:
- The rotation out of technology stockscontinues.
- This is a flight to quality, as well as safety.
McDonald’s will report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Feb. 11. The headline numbers will take a back seat to what the company has to say about traffic from lower-income consumers, as in its otherwise strong third-quarter report, McDonald’s cited a double-digit percentage drop in traffic from that demographic.
It’s not that McDonald’s is uniquely exposed to lower-income consumers, but this group has historically been one of the company’s most reliable traffic drivers.
However, persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and reduced discretionary spending have clearly changed behavior, and investors will be listening closely for any signs that traffic trends stabilized or worsened during the holiday quarter.
Beyond traffic, guidance will matter just as much.
McDonald’s has leaned on menu innovation, value offerings, and digital engagement to protect margins, and management commentary on pricing power and promotional intensity will shape expectations for 2026. International performance, particularly in Europe and China, will also be in focus as currency and macro pressures linger.
At near all-time highs, MCD stock doesn’t need perfection, but it does need reassurance. A steady outlook could reinforce McDonald’s role as a defensive anchor in an increasingly volatile market.
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Dividend Growth Adds to McDonald’s Defensive Appeal
McDonald’s is about as blue-chip as a blue-chip stock can be. When the company raises its dividend later this year (and yes, it’s a when, not an if), McDonald’s will join the elite group of Dividend Kings. That refers to companies that have increased their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years.
Analysts Are Lovin’ MCD Stock Before Earnings
Like many restaurant stocks, the short-term fortunes of McDonald’s will always be somewhat dictated by the consumer. But analysts tend to take a long-term view.
The McDonald’s business model looks healthy. Even accounting for the bifurcated economy, global comparable store sales were up more than 3.5% and the company reported global system-wide sales growth of over 6%.
Heading into earnings, the consensus price target has climbed to $331.37, which is about 2.48% below the stock’s current price. While the price targets have continuously gone up over the past year, the gap is narrowing, which suggests that analysts believe MCD stock is fairly priced.
However, on Feb. 2, both BTIG Research and UBS Group raised the price target for MCD to $360 and $350, respectively.
Coming a week before earnings, that could signal that analysts expect strong results. Adding some reason to believe that could be the case, the whisper number for MCD earnings is $3.08; that’s 3 cents above the consensus forecast.
Two AI Stocks Getting Quiet Attention (Ad)
Market volatility hasn’t disappeared — but investor behavior has changed.
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Should You Buy MCD Stock Before Earnings?
The MCD stock chart shows a strong short-term uptrend with the stock breaking to new highs above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is also close to the 150- and 200-day SMA. The slope of the 50‑day SMA is positive and acting as dynamic support; recent pullbacks have been shallow and quickly bought, reinforcing the underlying trend strength.
The MACD has turned decisively positive, with the MACD line well above both the signal line and the zero line, indicating an acceleration in upside momentum rather than a late‑stage rally. Volume on recent advances is healthy relative to prior months, validating the breakout and reducing the odds that this is a false move.
However, the relative strength indicator (RSI) (not shown) sits at around 69, which is near overbought territory. Overall, the chart favors staying long or buying dips as long as the price holds above the rising 50‑day moving average.
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What happened on stage in Las Vegas surprised everyone…
I just watched CES footage that honestly doesn’t look real.
On stage, Jensen Huang stunned the room… Then the video rolled.A self-driving vehicle moving through real streets.
No hands. No panic. No human “in control.”
Just a machine thinking its way through traffic.
And the longer I watched, the clearer it became: this isn’t about Nvidia.
The real story is the suppliers making this work — one of them still trades around $7.
You need to see this before CES footage like this goes mainstream.
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🎧 Rubio Rises. Fetterman Backs Voter ID. Autism Research.
February 10, 2026 | Read Online | Send Feedback
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Connecting Dots—Seeding Future Leverage Against China
The Panama Canal, the Board of Peace, and the Critical Minerals Ministerial seem to be unrelated projects, but they’re all coordinated moves against the Chinese Communist Party.
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Why Public Schools Have More Staff, Fewer Students
School districts are seeing an increase in the amount of staff while at the same time, student enrollment is declining. Taxpayers, the largest funders of public schools, will be left paying the bill of school districts can’t figure out how to rein in spending.
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12 Quarters. One Streak. Zero Respect From Wall Street
“When Wall Street hasn’t caught up to a growing company – I see a buy opportunity.”
Bryan Bottarelli, Head Trade Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance
Twelve quarters in a row.
That’s how long this Walmart and Costco competitor has been taking market share from its rivals.
Yet Wall Street is still treating it like it’s about to stumble.
I’m referring to BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), and it’s one of the most undervalued companies in the markets right now.
Aside from its 12 strong quarters, the retailer has built a loyal fanbase. It currently boasts more than 8 million members.
The numbers also back up this momentum…
Over the last three years, the stock has gained 33.2%.
Stretch it to five years, and you’re looking at a 131.6% return… driven primarily by membership growth.
Plus, it’s expanding, with its biggest growth plan in history. Management is targeting 15% unit growth, adding new clubs across the Southeast and Midwest – markets where the warehouse club model still has significant white space.
Yet despite the company’s growth, the market hasn’t caught up.
Looking at a discounted cash flow model, the estimated intrinsic value of the stock is $119.17. But it’s been trading at a discount to its projected fair value… today the stock is priced around $100.
BJ’s Wholesale has been trading in a tight consolidation pattern since late August. The current price is a bargain.
If BJ’s membership growth and expansion plan help push the stock through resistance, that could signal the start of a breakout.
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It’s why I’m watching it for a trade this week.
Action Plan: After last week’s volatility, BJ’s Wholesale isn’t the only potential trade I’m watching in The War Room. It’s just one buy opportunity in what’s shaping up to be a big week for trading.
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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for February 9th
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The AI trade is entering a more profitable phase (From StockEarnings)
Verizon: Your Total Return Leader for 2026 Might Be Hiding in Plain Sight
Written by Thomas Hughes
Verizon (NYSE: VZ) is up approximately 15% year-to-date as of early February and is on track to be a leader for total return investors.
Its nearly 6% yield is safe, and the market for its stock, on track for a significant breakout, can rise another 50% within a two to three-year time frame.
The driver is the impact of the recently appointed CEO, Dan Shulman, who has reinvigorated subscriber growth for this communications stock and amplified the long-term outlook.
However, investors should still watch execution on network investments and pricing discipline as the turnaround unfolds.
Verizon Market Heats Up, On Track for Significant Breakout
The stock price action since the Q4 2025 release, issued in late January, is aggressively bullish. The market advanced by more than 15% over three weeks, rising from the low end to the high end of its existing trading range. The critical factors are the volume, which spiked to historical highs, and the indicators, which signal a strong buy. Stochastic and MACD align, with bullish crossovers near the bottom of their respective ranges, suggesting a strengthening market with bulls in charge and plenty of room to move higher.
Regarding the technical targets, the base case is a movement equal to the February rally, approximately $17, while the bull case suggests a 45% upsidefrom the breakout point. That projection puts this market near historical highs on track to set new highs, assuming business traction and momentum are sustained. The valuation metrics are more enticing, with Verizon trading near 9x its 2026 earnings, about half its historical high.
Analysts and Institutions Drive VZ Market, Point to New Highs
Analyst sentiment underpins the stock price action. The analysts’ response to Q4 results was overwhelmingly bullish, with 11 revisions issued by a field of 20, and all positive. The worst are two affirmed ratings amounting to a Moderate Buy and above-consensus price target. The remainder includes two upgrades to Buy or Outperform equivalents and seven price target increases.
The net result is that coverage remains steady, sentiment is firming, and bullish bias is strengthening. The consensus, which forecasts a new long-term high, is rising, and revision trends point to the high end of the mid-$50’s.
Institutional activity is also a driving force for this market. The group owns more than 60% of the stock and bought on balance every quarter in 2025 and the first month of 2026. The support base they provide is strong, given the greater-than-$2 bought for each $1 sold balance, and is quickly becoming a tailwind.
Assuming no change in the fundamental outlook, analysts and institutions suggest this market will set new highs soon; it’s only a matter of when. When it happens, the technical targets will take effect regardless of where the analysts’ high end is set. In this scenario, VZ will continue to perform well and sustain a bullish revision cycle.
Verizon Indicates Pivot With Q4 Results, 2026 Guidance
Verizon is issued a good report and robust guidance, strengthened by CEO Shulman’s confident, consumer-focused, win-big attitude. The company reported $36.4 billion in revenue, up 2% year over year and 50 basis points better than expected, driven by a six-year high in net subscription additions. Strength was seen across business metrics, with consumer and business segments contributing to growth and margin.
Margin news is mixed: margins are contracting under the influence of marketing and 5G build-out, but still better than expected, compounded by the guidance. The net result is that adjusted earnings of $1.09 were nearly 300 bps better than MarketBeat’s reported consensus, sufficient to enable balance sheet improvement while paying dividends, and guidance for 2026 is robust. The company targets net additions two to three times the prior year’s level, a six-year high in free cash flow, and low-end EPS of $4.95, compared to the $4.77 consensus estimate. This is potentially cautious, given the momentum seen in the Q4 2025 results. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Insiders Buy 3 High-Risk Stocks—Here’s What’s Driving the Moves
Written by Leo Miller
When it comes to analyzing insider trades, investors should keep several important nuances in mind. For example, insider sales can often appear alarming until one realizes that they were made under a predetermined Rule 10b5-1 plan. Because insiders must schedule these trades far in advance of their execution, they don’t provide a clear bearish signal.
Meanwhile, insider buying tends to be a much better indicator for investors. As famed asset manager Peter Lynch once said, “Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.”
To this end, let’s break down the recent insider buys and news surrounding three high-risk names: GameStop (NYSE: GME), USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR), and Under Armour (NYSE: UA).
Insiders and Michael Burry Buy GME Amid CEO’s Bold Statements
GameStop has been in and out of financial headlines for years now, most known for its association with the “meme-stock” phenomenon.
Recently, CEO Ryan Cohen conducted an interview with the Wall Street Journal. Cohen reportedly wants to acquire a major public company to turn GameStop into a much larger firm. Notably, the company has $8.8 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities available to finance an acquisition.
Still, details are scant at this point, with Cohen saying, “It’s ultimately either going to be genius or totally, totally foolish.” Despite the huge amount of uncertainty surrounding Cohen’s plans, insiders and outside investors and buying GME shares.
Three insiders purchased a total of nearly $11 million in shares from Jan. 20 to Jan. 23.
Additionally, “Big Short” investor Michael Burry has been buying GME. While this insider buying provides positive signals, betting big on GameStop remains risky—especially since almost all of GME’s recent insider buying came from Cohen himself.
USAR Insiders Make Purchases After Key Funding Announcements
USA Rare Earth is another name seeing notable insider buying. Two insiders purchased a total of around $2.17 million worth of shares on Jan. 29. These buys came days after the company announced a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) with the U.S. Department of Commerce. This LOI could provide USAR with $1.6 billion worth of government funding, $1.3 billion of which would be in the form of a secured loan.
However, the agreement has not been finalized.
USAR has also received $1.5 billion in financing from private investors, earmarked for building out its rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain. Currently, MP Materials (NYSE: MP) remains the only U.S. company with a scaled rare-earth mining operation, a designation that USAR is poised to disrupt.
Given the strategic importance of rare-earth magnets to many technology companies and national defense, it’s logical for the U.S. government to work with USAR.
Clearly, the company insiders are buying into the firm’s future, providing a bullish signal. Still, with massive amounts of volatility and government funding not finalized, USAR is a high-risk stock.
Under Armour Sees Over $200 Million in Insider Buys
Last up is the seemingly forgotten apparel brand Under Armour. Since late December 2025, major shareholder Prem Watsa has purchased a large number of Under Armour shares.
These shares are held by subsidiaries of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, of which Watsa is the CEO. In total, Watsa purchased $219 million worth of Under Armour shares from late December to early February, which were underpinned by $1 million of insider purchases from three separate individuals in August 2025.
These buyers were vindicated on Feb. 6, when shares surged by over 19% on Under Armour’s latest earnings report, which beat sales expectations and delivered an adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) surprise.
While these insider buys and the company’s earnings are positive signs, Under Armour’s outlook is mixed. Much of the company’s EPS beat came from a one-time tax benefit. Additionally, the stock trades at a steep forward price-to-earnings ratio of 59x. It has posted negative sales growth for 11 consecutive quarters and expects sales to decline again next quarter, which may cause investors to question its premium valuation going forward.
Insiders Buys: Positive Indicators, But Not Gospel
While these insider purchases provide encouraging signs from these firm’s key confidants, they are one key indicator that investors should consider. Just as external market watchers can be wrong in their assessments of a stock’s future, so can insiders. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
The AI trade is entering a more profitable phase (Ad)
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2 Subscription Economy Winners That Still Dominate Their Niches
Written by Jordan Chussler
Over the past decade, Deere & Company (NYSE: DE)—more commonly known by its brand name John Deere—has received mounting criticism for its transition to Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). The move indicated a shift in which the company—a manufacturer of agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery—began implementing a restricted-repair model.
The result: Farmers and other vocations that rely on heavy machinery are forced to use integrated digital technology in tractors and other equipment. The company states that, rather than outright ownership of machines, its customers hold an implied license to operate the software and equipment in tandem.
While Deere has faced criticism for the move, the company is just one example of the proliferation of the subscription economy—a business model in which firms have shifted to generating recurring revenue from consumers who pay regular fees for ongoing services rather than purchasing products outright.
There have been numerous successful adoptions of this model, from Instacart grocery delivery provider Maplebear (NASDAQ: CART) to music-streaming service provider Spotify (NYSE: SPOT). But a few companies are so well-positioned that they can be deemed the winners of the subscription economy. And right now, two of them are on sale.
How the Subscription Economy Has Taken Over
Driven by the digital transformation, the subscription economy focuses on captive audiences who are willing to pay recurring fees for personalization and convenience, in turn providing companies with predictable revenues.
The model isn’t anything new. Newspapers are an anachronism in 2026, but the industry embraced the very same practice being used today by gaming companies, telehealth and medication platforms, and mobile app-based rideshare providers.
The difference today is that, rather than paperboys delivering goods and services, the digital services are driving modern adoption.
According to industry consultancy firm Grand View Research, the digital transformation market size, which was estimated to be valued at $1.07 trillion in 2024, is expected to reach $4.62 trillion by 2030, good for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5%.
While that alone should grab investors’ attention, it merely serves as a foundation for the explosive adoption of subscription models. Grand View Research also found that the global subscription economy market, valued at $492.34 billion in 2024, is expected to reach $1.51 trillion by 2033 based on a CAGR of 13.3%.
Netflix Dominates Streaming Video and Is on Sale
Movie theaters are hanging on by a thread, and if you ask executives at Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), they may tell you the industry is facing a fate similar to that of Blockbuster Video.
Since the communication services sector’s mainstay has grown into a household name, it has amassed a market cap of more than $347 billion. And while competitors—including Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) Prime Video and Disney’s (NYSE: DIS) Hulu and Disney+—have emerged, the ubiquity and track record of Netflix make it the runaway market leader.
Last year, Netflix reaffirmed its dominance when it announced a deal to take over Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ: WBD). In January, that agreement was amended to an all-cash deal in order to expedite the acquisition and counter a bid from rival Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ: PSKY).
The takeover amounts to $83 billion, with Warner Bros. Discovery planning to spin off its networks division—including CNN, TBS, TNT, and the Discovery Channel—into a new public company called Discovery Global.
That deal sent shares of NFLX lower. Year-to-date (YTD), the stock is down nearly 10%, following a more than 39% slide from its all-time high in June 2025.
Here’s why that’s good news for prospective investors and current shareholders. The stock’s trailing 12-month (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 32.53, but its forward P/E ratio is just 3.34, implying that the stock is providing some of its greatest value since its May 2002 IPO.
Analysts assign NFLX a Moderate Buy rating, but their average one-year price target of $116.08 suggests more than 41% potential upside.
Software’s Sell-Off Means Adobe Shares Are a Bargain
From semiconductor leases to iCloud storage, the tech sector is no stranger to the subscription model. But the recent sell-off in software stocks has resulted in skittish investors wary of the space.
That may be true for short-term swing traders, but for buy-and-hold investors looking to acquire shares at a bargain, perhaps no other company in this corner of the market is a better buy-low candidate than Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE).
The SaaS company—famous for Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, and Acrobat—has seen its stock fall more than 19% YTD, and since its all-time high in November 2021, ADBE is down more than 61%.
However, that software no longer offers single-purchase options. Instead, the product suite’s subscription revenue reached nearly $6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a 12% year-over-year increase.
Overall, Adobe’s recurring revenue has contributed to a five-year annual revenue growth rate of 13.15%. Despite the stock’s slide, annual net income (a.k.a. profit) has grown $4.82 billion in 2021—the year of ADBE’s all-time high—to $7.13 billion in 2025, good for a nearly 48% increase.
Meanwhile, analysts’ average 12-month price target of $401.13 implies nearly 50% potential upside. The stock’s forward P/E is also attractive at 16.12. Meanwhile, Adobe has only missed earnings once in the past 27 quarters, dating back to Q2 2019. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
Two AI Stocks Getting Quiet Attention (Ad)
Market volatility hasn’t disappeared — but investor behavior has changed.
Instead of chasing broad rallies, capital is increasingly flowing toward areas showing clear demand, real-world adoption, and long-term relevance. Artificial intelligence continues to stand out on all three fronts.
Across earnings calls and corporate spending plans, AI investment is no longer theoretical. It’s being deployed, measured, and expanded — even as other sectors lose momentum.
That shift is creating selective opportunities for investors paying attention.2 AI STOCKS POSITIONED FOR THE NEXT PHASE OF GROWTH
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RJ Hamster
Jobs Data Finally Coming | Apple’s Ignored Beat |…
February 09, 2026
OPENING THESIS
The data drought ends this week. After government shutdown delays pushed back critical releases, we finally get January jobs and inflation numbers that will shape Fed policy for the rest of 2026. Meanwhile, the market is staging a quiet revolution — rotating away from the names that dominated last year toward a broader leadership base. The Dow crossed 50,000 last week. What happens next depends on what these delayed numbers actually show.
MARKET OVERVIEW
The Week That Decides the Quarter
Payroll growth is expected to rise from 50,000 in December to 70,000 in January. Unemployment is projected to hold at 4.4%. Earnings growth should cool to 3.6% from 3.8%.
These aren’t just numbers. They’re the inputs the Fed uses to decide whether June brings rate cuts or continued patience.
The labor market isn’t collapsing. But it’s softer than headlines suggest. This is the biggest risk to the economic outlook right now.
Investor Signal: This week’s data releases will set the market narrative through Q1. Position accordingly.
AI’s NEXT Magnificent Seven
The Original Magnificent Seven Produced 16,894% Average Returns Over 20 Years.
But the Man Who Called Nvidia at $1.10 Says “AI’s Next Magnificent Seven Could Do It Even Faster.”
See His Breakdown of the Seven Stocks You Should Own Here.
DEEP DIVE
Apple’s $143 Billion Message
While everyone debated Amazon’s spending plans last week, Apple quietly delivered a masterclass in execution. Revenue climbed 16% year-over-year to $143.8 billion. EPS hit $2.84, crushing estimates.
iPhone revenue surged 23%. In a market obsessed with AI infrastructure costs, Apple showed that hardware dominance still prints money.
The contrast is striking. Amazon dropped 7% on spending announcements. Apple barely moved on exceptional results. This is the market being selectively deaf to good news in mega-cap tech.
When exceptional execution gets ignored, it tells you something about positioning. The market is so fixated on the next AI spending shoe to drop that proven winners are being overlooked.
Investor Signal: Apple’s results suggest the mega-cap selloff may have overshot. Companies delivering revenue growth deserve closer attention.
WHAT IT MEANS
The Rotation You’re Not Watching
A massive rotation inside the stock market is underway. Money is flowing from concentrated tech positions into broader market exposure.
The Dow Equal Weight index is outperforming the cap-weighted version. Financials are catching bids. Industrials are getting attention again.
This isn’t the end of tech leadership. It’s the beginning of market breadth expansion. When the Dow crosses 50,000 while specific tech names struggle, the tape is telling you that participation is broadening.
For most portfolios, this is healthy. Concentration risk was elevated after 2025’s narrow leadership.
Investor Signal: Breadth expansion typically supports sustained rallies. The rotation is a feature, not a bug.
Trump’s Stock Warning
Trump just drew a line in the sand.
When a powerful U.S. ally moved against ONE American company, Trump didn’t hesitate.
He issued a direct threat…
And warned them they were “making a big mistake.”
SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
Earnings Season Delivers the Unexpected
S&P 500 companies are on track to grow earnings 15% in 2026. That’s not a typo. Aggregate earnings are still accelerating despite the noise around individual names.
75% of reporting companies have beaten estimates. The Communication Services sector posted 7.6% aggregate surprises.
Yet sentiment remains cautious. The gap between what companies are actually delivering and how investors feel about it is widening.
This disconnect creates opportunity. When fundamentals outpace sentiment, mean reversion tends to favor the bulls.
Investor Signal: Earnings execution is stronger than market pricing suggests. Watch for sentiment to catch up to fundamentals.
Buffett, Gates and Bezos Quietly Dumping Stocks —
Here’s Why
The world’s wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It’s something we haven’t seen in America for more than a century.
For the full story, click here.
CLOSING LENS
This week matters more than most. The data releases we’ve been waiting for finally arrive. Jobs. Inflation. The numbers that determine Fed policy.
But the bigger story is what the market is already telling us. Breadth is improving. Earnings are beating. Rotation is healthy.
The AI spending debate will continue. Individual names will have volatile sessions. That’s noise.
The signal is this: Corporate America is still growing earnings at double-digit rates. The labor market is soft but not broken. The Fed has room to cut if needed.
That’s a better backdrop than headlines suggest. Position for fundamentals, not fear.
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SMCI Soars Post-Earnings: Head Fake, Or Sign of True…
Two AI Stocks Getting Quiet Attention(From Darwin)
SMCI Soars Post-Earnings: Head Fake, Or Sign of True Recovery?
Written by Leo Miller on February 4, 2026
Quick Look
- Over approximately six months, shares of Super Micro Computer have lost around half their value.
- However, the stock surged after the company’s latest earnings report on sales growth of more than 100%.
- Gross margin deterioration remains a problematic sticking point, but an emerging business line could shift the trend.
After a precipitous slide, artificial intelligence (AI) server giant Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) just got some much-needed good news. Since hitting its 52-week closing high near $61 back in July of 2025, Super Micro shares had fallen around 50% through the close on Feb. 3, 2026.
However, since releasing its latest earnings after the close on Feb. 3, investors are cheering. Shares rose around 14% on Feb. 4 in reaction. Still, looking forward, do Super Micro’s results signal that the stock can stage a more robust rebound, or could this name be head-faking investors?
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Super Micro Crushes Estimates Across the Board
Super Micro reported astounding growth in its Q2 fiscal year 2026 (FY2026). Note that the company’s fiscal year reporting period is ahead of the calendar period.
Sales came in at $12.7 billion, a massive 123% increase versus the prior year. The company’s growth rate has returned to triple-digit levels after revenue declined 15% in Q1 2026.
Super Micro’s sales crushed estimates of $10.3 billion, which called for growth of approximately 81%.
The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) also impressed, coming in at 69 cents. This equated to a growth rate of 17%, compared to estimates of 49 cents and -17% growth.
Additionally, the company’s guidance came in much better than expected. Next quarter, SMCI forecasts sales of at least $12.3 billion and adjusted EPS of at least 60 cents. These handily exceeded estimates of $10.2 billion and 52 cents. Furthermore, Super Micro’s full-year sales estimate is $40 billion, versus forecasts of $36.4 billion. Despite these strong headline figures, diving into the specifics of the company’s results is key to assessing its future.
Gross Margin Tanks, But DCBBS Outlook Indicates Rebound
Super Micro is clearly seeing rabid demand for its products and services, generating huge sales connected to chips from NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD). However, that demand has not come without costs. In the quarter, SMCI’s adjusted gross margin fell to 6.4%. This was a 310 basis point drop from Q1 2026, and a 550 basis point drop compared to a year ago. The company said its mix is shifting toward a “large model builder” with pricing leverage, which is pressuring gross margin.
This epitomizes the key issue within Super Micro’s business. At present, the company appears to be a price taker rather than a price setter. Sandwiched between buying high-cost chips from NVIDIA and AMD, and selling assembled systems to extremely large buyers, the company has limited ability to negotiate on price. The company needs to reverse the trend in its gross margin. Notably, SMCI provided a significant source of hope on this front.
Super Micro said that its data center building block solutions (DCBBS) are gaining traction. After providing little detail on DCBBS last quarter, the company said the business line contributed to 4% of profit in the first half of its fiscal 2026. (Note that the company’s fiscal year is ahead of the calendar year.) Super Micro sees DCBBS growth accelerating and believes it will account for a “double-digit percentage” of profit by the end of the 2026 calendar year. This is key, as Supermicro says DCBBS gross margins are above 20%, much higher than the company’s overall gross margin. As this division grows, the company’s overall gross margin profile can improve.
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Analysts Eye Solid Upside in SMCI, But Shares and Needham Target Diverge
So far, updated analyst forecasts on Super Micro remain limited. The tracked consensus price target on SMCI is around $45.30. This figure implies a strong upside potential of 34%.
Notably, though, Needham & Company lowered its price target from $51 to $40 after the results. This figure still implies solid upside potential of 18%, but it is not a great sign to see this analyst cut its target, given SMCI’s Feb. 4 price action. Still, Needham maintained its Buy rating on the stock, which limits the bearishness of this signal.
Overall, Super Micro’s sustained success hinges significantly on DCBBS becoming a much larger part of its business. Early results appear promising, but the company still has a lot to prove, and a hiccup in DCBBS progress could damage SMCI’s narrative.
The stock’s rally could continue in the near term, but the company needs to show more concrete evidence of DCBBS success to support its long-term prospects.
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Buffett’s $325B Cash Hoard: Gold Next?
Warren Buffett is sitting on $325 billion in cash – his largest hoard ever.
Not because he wants to – but because he can’t find value in the usual places.
Now, as US government spending spirals out of control, Buffett knows he’s losing billions of dollars to inflation.
That’s why I predict Buffett’s next investment will catch millions of people off guard.
It’s not another bank… railroad company… or more shares of Apple.
It’s a gold company. How do I know?
Because the math doesn’t lie:
You can buy the average gold developer for $30 and get back $13 a year —
That’s a 43% ROI annually.
Over 10 years, that’s $130 on a $30 investment.
Tell me where else Buffett can get that.
But there’s one specific miner Buffett likes best:
- It’s the best-managed major gold miner in the industry…
- Has massive cash flow…
- Is trading at a deep discount to fair value…
- Positioned at the heart of Trump’s new mining push…
Don’t wait for Buffett to reveal his position in his 13F filing on February 17th…
Right now, you have the chance to front-run the greatest investor of all time. Go here and I’ll give you the name and ticker – along with details on my top four small miners.
To your wealth,
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Chief Analyst & Founder, Golden Portfolio
P.S. A lot of investors write in to tell me how much they’ve made in Bitcoin. My reply? Good for you. First off, gold investing is cyclical. You really only want to own gold at one specific time in the cycle. That time is now. Second, the world’s governments are not buying Bitcoin. They’re betting on gold. All of them. Bitcoin (does anyone really know for sure the US government didn’t create it?) will be a good bet… until it isn’t. It may end up doing great. Or it may be eclipsed by any number of tech developments.
Meanwhile, gold will continue to do what it’s done for almost 6,000 years of recorded human history: Protect wealth through chaos. Go here if you want the name and ticker of Buffett’s likely gold play… and details on my top four miners
Just For You
Microsoft’s Maia 200: The Profit Engine AI Needs
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Date Posted: 1/27/2026.
At a Glance
- Microsoft’s new custom silicon chip is designed to significantly reduce the cost of running artificial intelligence workloads for the cloud infrastructure division.
- Management timed this strategic hardware release to reassure investors about profit margins just before the fiscal second-quarter earnings announcement.
- Moving inference processing to proprietary hardware allows the tech giant to depend less on third-party suppliers and to improve long-term cloud economics.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) officially launched its custom Maia 200 AI accelerator in the last week of January, marking a milestone in the company’s infrastructure strategy. The announcement arrives at a critical moment for the tech-sectorgiant—just 48 hours before management is scheduled to release its fiscal second-quarter earnings report.
For investors, the timing is a deliberate signal. Over the past year, Wall Street has taken a “show me” stance on Microsoft, which is trading near $470. Although shares have recovered from recent volatility, concerns persist about the massive capital spending required to build out AI data centers.
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By unveiling a proprietary chip optimized for inference immediately before reporting results, management is signaling a shift: the focus is moving from expanding AI capacity at any cost to optimizing it for long-term profitability.
3nm Power & Speed: Why Specs Matter
To gauge the financial impact, investors should start with the technology. The Maia 200 is built on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (NYSE: TSM) advanced 3-nanometer process, packing more than 140 billion transistors onto a single chip and pairing that with 216GB of high-bandwidth memory (HBM3e) for rapid data throughput.
More important for shareholders than transistor count is purpose: the Maia 200 is specifically optimized for inference workloads.
The Difference Between Learning and Doing
AI has two main phases:
- Training: Teaching an AI model, which requires enormous computation and is typically done with general-purpose GPUs such as those from NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).
- Inference: The AI’s day-to-day operation. Every time a user asks Copilot a question or uses ChatGPT, the system performs inference to generate an answer.
Training is a massive upfront cost; inference is a recurring and perpetual expense. As millions adopt Microsoft’s AI tools, inference becomes a dominant, ongoing cost. Deploying a chip tailored to that task allows Microsoft to handle daily interactions faster and more cheaply than with third-party hardware.
Economics of AI: Turning Efficiency Into Profit
The headline from the announcement is that the Maia 200 delivers roughly 30% better performance per dollar versus Microsoft’s prior hardware configurations. For CFOs and institutional investors, that’s the most consequential figure.
This improvement directly affects Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) for Microsoft’s cloud business. In software, gross margins are a primary measure of financial health. If Microsoft relied entirely on expensive third-party hardware to run its services, growing usage would compress margins. Cutting the cost of each AI query by about 30% with its own chips can materially expand gross margins on subscription services like Microsoft 365 Copilot and Azure OpenAI Services.
The Hidden Cost: Energy and Power
There’s a secondary benefit: lower electricity consumption. AI data centers are power-hungry, and a move to a smaller 3-nanometer architecture means the Maia 200 uses less energy for the same work as older chips.
Given Microsoft’s recent large energy commitments to power its data centers, reducing watts per query is nearly as important as reducing dollars per chip. That dual efficiency helps insulate the company from volatile energy prices and supports the bottom line.
Microsoft vs. The Field: Catching the Hyperscalers
The Maia 200 also changes the competitive picture among hyperscalers—Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) among them. Both Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) have developed custom chips for years, which gave them a theoretical cost edge.
Today’s data suggests Microsoft has narrowed that gap. The company reports the new chip delivers:
- Three times the performance of Amazon’s third-generation Trainium chip on certain FP4 benchmarks.
- Superior performance versus Google’s seventh-generation TPU on FP8 precision tasks.
Achieving technical parity or superiority in custom silicon reduces the risk of losing price-sensitive enterprise customers to rivals.
Supply Chain Leverage
This move also gives Microsoft greater leverage. The industry has been constrained by NVIDIA GPU supply, and shortages and high prices have slowed growth for many customers.
While Microsoft will continue partnering with NVIDIA for AI training, the Maia 200 insulates the company from hardware bottlenecks for inference workloads. That helps Microsoft scale Copilot and other services without being limited by third-party hardware availability.
Custom Silicon & the Road to $600
The Maia 200 aligns with the bullish narrative on Wall Street. Analysts remain optimistic about Microsoft’s long-term outlook despite recent consolidation.
Firms such as Wedbush have described Microsoft as a front-runner in the Fourth Industrial Revolution and continue to maintain aggressive price targets above $600. The consensus among 30+ analysts is a Buy, with an average price target implying more than 30% upside from current levels.
The Maia 200 addresses a key bear case—that AI spending would permanently erode profits. By demonstrating cost reductions, Microsoft gives analysts more support for high price targets.
Investor Outlook: All Eyes on Earnings
Attention turns to Wednesday, Jan. 28, when Microsoft reports Q2 earnings. Consensus projects revenue above $80.28 billion, but the stock’s reaction will likely hinge on forward-looking guidance rather than past results.
Today’s announcement creates a favorable backdrop for that call. Management can now point to the Maia 200 as a tangible driver of improved AI yield and cost control.
The Maia 200 marks a transition: Microsoft is shifting from build-at-any-cost expansion to operational efficiency. For shareholders, that’s a bullish development. It suggests management has a clearer path to protecting margins as AI adoption scales. If the upcoming earnings report confirms strong demand for Azure and Copilot, the improved economics from the Maia 200 could help Microsoft retest prior highs and move toward the analyst-projected $600 target over time.
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