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The Fed keeps rates steady… Jerome Powell’s last stand… The next Fed chair: One of ‘the Kevins’ or a Rick?… The new betting favorite… The dollar hits a four-year low… Trump says it’s doing great… Don’t miss our game plan for 2026…
The waning months of the Jerome Powell era are here…
And they’re starting with a decision to “do nothing.”
Today, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate steady, breaking a three-meeting streak of lowering rates by 25 basis points each time. The federal-funds rate range remains 3.5% to 3.75%.
As Powell’s term as chair winds down (his term ends in May), the central bank is signaling that inflation is once again at least as important a concern as the labor market.
Following the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting today, the Fed published a new statement that eliminated previous language about it being most concerned about a weakening labor market. Instead, it said the bank needs to balance both sides of its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.
The Fed said the economy is “solid” and that the “unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization,” while “inflation remains somewhat elevated” relative to its 2% goal.
In a post-meeting press conference, Powell highlighted that higher inflation readings “largely reflect” rises in the goods sector, which has been boosted by tariffs, while disinflation “appears to be continuing” in the services sector.
And so, the Fed is keeping its policy rate where it is…
“We do think we’re well positioned after those three cuts to let the data speak to us,” Powell said. “Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have both diminished.” Though he said they still exist.
Powell also said the current fed-funds rate is somewhere in the range of “loosely neutral or somewhat restrictive” for the economy.
The vote to keep rates steady was 10 to 2. Fed governors Stephen Miran (handpicked by President Donald Trump for a brief voting term) and Chris Waller (considered a long shot to replace Powell as chair in May) dissented and voted for a 25-basis-point cut instead.
You could take this Fed decision to not mean much, or as something more substantial, like Powell making a final stand against Trump – who has repeatedly called for Powell to lower rates… said he was “too late” in doing so… and questioned his intelligence.
Powell is set to lead two more policy meetings, and the market isn’t expecting the Fed to lower rates again until after his term ends. Powell’s term as a governor lasts until January 2028, though. So he could stay on the board until then. When asked today, Powell declined to say what his future plans are. But he did offer some advice to the next guy. “Stay out of elected politics, don’t get pulled into elected politics,” Powell said. “Don’t do it.”
As for who the next Fed chair will be…
The market favorite keeps changing.
Trump has said repeatedly over the past year or so that he likes “the two Kevins,” meaning the White House’s director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh.
Trump told Hassett earlier this month during a White House event, “I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth.”
In short, folks on Wall Street saw Hassett as toofavorable to Trump. And concerns about his “independence” sparked worries that Hassett could have the opposite effect that Trump wants… leading to high(er) inflation expectations and longer-term Treasury yields. But that outcome could happen anyway. Whomever Trump picks will likely have assured him they’ll lower interest rates, at least initially, in their run as Fed chair.
Warsh was also considered an early favorite for the job. But he likely fell out of the lead after he gave a TV interview where he only indirectly suggested he may be inclined to lower rates indefinitely as central bank head.
So over the past few weeks, a new favorite has emerged in betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. That’s Rick Rieder, the head of global fixed income at BlackRock.
Rieder’s résumé is different from either of the two Kevins’…
He’s less an economist and much more a practitioner with substantial real-world market experience.
He first landed on Wall Street in 1987. Then he left Lehman Brothers before it blew up in 2008 to form his own firm. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink acquired it and tapped Rieder to lead BlackRock’s fixed-income business, where he manages more than $2 trillion in assets.
Notably, Rieder has said publicly that he doesn’t think interest rates have the same widespread influence on the economy that they used to… but that they do matter in areas like mortgage rates and the housing sector, an area that Trump wants to juice.
Rieder is also less inclined to rely on conventional economic indicators. He said earlier this month that the federal-funds rate should be at 3%. And in November, he said that the Fed could cut rates rather than waiting.
Importantly, he might also be easier to confirm in Congress than either Hassett or Warsh, since Rieder could be perceived as more believable when he talks about the importance of “Fed independence.”
That all presumes Rieder wants the job.
In the end, only one person will know who the next Fed chair will be before anyone else. That’s Trump.
Again, no matter who the choice is, it’s going to be someone who fits the description Trump said he preferred last July, when he began talking about wanting to fire Powell. As we reported then, Trump said: “I’m only interested in low-interest people.”
Already, the U.S. dollar has hit a four-year low…
The U.S. Dollar Index (“DXY”) – which measures the dollar’s value against six other major currencies, including the euro and the Japanese yen – hit its lowest level since February 2022 yesterday.
Trump isn’t worried, though… When asked about the dollar’s recent decline, he said yesterday, “The dollar is doing great.”
That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. Trump has pushed for a weaker dollar (through a series of Fed rate cuts) for some time.
A weaker dollar makes it cheaper for other countries to buy goods from the U.S. – which could ease some of the trade imbalances that Trump cited as reasons for his tariffs last April.
So from that point of view, the dollar’s recent performance probably is pretty “great.”
One of our colleagues isn’t as bullish on the dollar…
In yesterday’s free look inside our Investment Committee’s monthly meeting, True Wealth editor Brett Eversole noted that once the dollar begins trending lower, a multiyear bear market in the currency usually follows. From yesterday’s video…
When we get into these cycles, they generally last, you know, seven, eight, nine years, and the dollar falls 30% to 40% to 50%. So while we have seen a lot of decline in the dollar over the last year and in prior years, we’re still, in my view, very early in that cycle.
Of course, that’s good news if you own anything that’s priced in dollars, like stocks, gold, and silver – all of which have been on a tear lately. And a weaker dollar isn’t a boost to just those precious metals. More from Brett yesterday…
More broadly, the commodities market is set up with that falling-dollar environment to potentially go much higher over the next few years.
Market Maven editor Gabe Marshank, a special guest during the meeting, agreed… adding that he’s “bullish as hell” on energy, specifically with the growing demand from artificial intelligence (“AI”).
Looking ahead to one of 2026’s catalysts…
Trump made his comments yesterday about the dollar in Iowa, where he was giving a speech to kick off the midterm election season. As a reminder, the second year of the four-year presidential cycle (which is this year) is typically the most volatile for stocks.
As Brett wrote in the December issue of The Total Portfolio…
Here are the average S&P 500 Index returns during each year of the presidential election cycle since 1928…
The second year of the presidency tends to perform the worst. The third year is the best by far.
When you start the 12-month period on September 30 – closer to Election Day – the results get even worse. As Brett shared…
So far, the S&P 500 is up about 4% since September 30, ahead of the average “Year 2” return. But the heart of midterm election season – and the uncertainty that comes with it – is still down the road. That will likely bring some volatility throughout the summer and fall.
It doesn’t mean we recommend selling all your stocks…
In fact, as Brett’s data shows, investors who hold throughout the potential volatility will be rewarded…
Choppiness and market mayhem in 2026 won’t be the end of the AI bubble. They’ll simply set the stage for Years 3 and 4 of the election cycle. In other words, our road map tells us that if we hold tight through 2026, we’ll likely see fantastic returns in 2027 and 2028.
Brett and the rest of our Investment Committee covered the volatility we could see in the rest of 2026, as well as other hot-button topics – like AI, geopolitics, and more – in their latest meeting, which we opened to the public yesterday.
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New 52-week highs (as of 1/27/26): ABB (ABBNY), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Amgen (AMGN), Valterra Platinum (ANGPY), ASML (ASML), Barrick Mining (B), BHP (BHP), BP (BP), British American Tobacco (BTI), Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 Fund (COWZ), Chevron (CVX), iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy Fund (DBMF), WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFJ), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), Enel (ENLAY), EnerSys (ENS), Equinox Gold (EQX), Ero Copper (ERO), iShares MSCI Germany Fund (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Fund (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Fund (EWP), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), SPDR Euro STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), VanEck Gold Miners Fund (GDX), VanEck Junior Gold Miners Fund (GDXJ), Gilead Sciences (GILD), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Helmerich & Payne (HP), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), KraneShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index Fund (KEMX), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Mueller Industries (MLI), Newmont (NEM), Novartis (NVS), OR Royalties (OR), Ormat Technologies (ORA), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), Royal Gold (RGLD), Roche (RHHBY), Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index Fund (ROBO), Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), SandRidge Energy (SD), Skeena Resources (SKE), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), SSR Mining (SSRM), Torex Gold Resources (TORXF), Tenaris (TS), UGI (UGI), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), Vale (VALE), Vanguard FTSE Europe Fund (VGK), Telefônica Brasil (VIV), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
“Thoroughly enjoyed your presentation [yesterday] morning. Made lots of notes. Very much appreciate Stansberry and [Stansberry’s corporate affiliate] Chaikin Analytics.” – Subscriber Linda W.
“This mentions 6 stock picks. Matt didn’t give one, except if you count The Total Portfolio.” – Subscriber Linda W.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Linda, that’s true, but Whitney Tilson shared two free recommendations, and Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig, Brett Eversole, Alan Gula, and Gabe Marshank each shared one to make the six-pack.
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol Baltimore, Maryland January 28, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT Microsoft02/10/121,550.0%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryMSFT Microsoft11/11/101,495.8%Retirement MillionaireADP Automatic Data Processing10/09/08953.0%Extreme ValueBRK.B Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09767.4%Retirement MillionaireGOOGL Alphabet12/15/16724.1%Retirement MillionaireALS-T Altius Minerals03/26/09624.1%Extreme ValueWRB W.R. Berkley03/15/12623.1%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisorySII Sprott01/11/18615.9%Extreme ValueSI Silver bullion03/12/20563.8%Extreme ValueGLD SPDR Gold Shares09/03/08501.1%Retirement Millionaire
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals4Extreme ValueFerris4Retirement MillionaireDoc2Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationWSTETH/USD Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/182,321.1%Crypto CapitalBTC/USD Bitcoin11/27/182,273.5%Crypto CapitalONE/USD Harmony12/16/191,025.0%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21998.1%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD Polygon02/26/21648.8%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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RJ Hamster
