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Why 2026 Could Be the Year D-Wave Breaks Out

Written by Nathan Reiff on December 22, 2025 

In Brief

• Despite volatility in the last few months, the quantum industry may have room to grow significantly in the next year.
• D-Wave is at the top of the short list of pure-play quantum companies, thanks to its growing commercial traction, its varied technological approach, and its cash holdings, which should provide a buffer as it continues to pursue profitability.
• Sentiment may be shifting back in favor of a bullish take on QBTS, with short interest improving and growing support from major players on Wall Street.

The quantum computing industry has had a wild ride in 2025. Despite a pullback this fall, the leading quantum stocks have dominated the broader market this year, and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) has remained an eye-catching favorite among analysts and investors alike. In the last month alone, analysts at four Wall Street firms have initiated Buy or Outperform ratings for QBTS stock.

Here’s the actionable setup for investors: If you’re looking at 2026 as a potential “real commercialization” year for quantum, D-Wave stands out for its mix of early traction, a long cash runway, and fresh analyst support—but the stock also carries the valuation and execution risk that comes with an industry still proving itself.

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Revenue Is Small, but the Direction Is Getting Harder to Ignore

Like most quantum-focused firms, D-Wave’s sales history does not yet match the high expectations held by investors. Revenue more than doubled year-over-year for the third quarter of 2025, reaching about $3.7 million for the quarter. The growth rate is striking, but the dollar figure remains modest—especially relative to the stock’s valuation.

Although small in absolute terms, D-Wave’s sales are on an unmistakable upward path, and analysts see the trend continuing.

Jefferies analysts, for example, expect a 73% compound annual revenue growth rate (CAGR) over the next several years.

2026 may be the year that D-Wave taps into a broader market, which could provide a catalyst to drive further revenue expansion. 

So far, D-Wave’s customers have primarily been governments and large organizations—one of its most recently announced quantum system sales involved the Italian government, for instance—but smaller clients are displaying increasing interest. 

In particular, D-Wave’s cloud quantum service could appeal to businesses looking to harness quantum technology without investing in a multi-million-dollar quantum computer.

Annealing and Gate-Model Combination Serves Broadest Possible Client Base

D-Wave’s identity has long been tied to quantum annealing, which many investors view as more specialized than the gate-model approach pursued by other quantum peers. D-Wave’s recent success in practical settings points to the promise of this alternative approach. In particular, annealing is ideal for solving optimization problems—determining the best possible approach among a huge range of possibilities—in industries like transportation, drug development, logistics, and finance, among many others.

D-Wave’s use of annealing may boost its marketability in the near term. And lest investors worry that rivals with alternative quantum approaches will later overshadow the company, D-Wave is also exploring gate-model technology. Its massive cash base of close to $1 billion, which dwarfs many of its quantum rivals, gives D-Wave the breathing room to continue developing its technology while market interest develops.

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Buying QBTS on Shifting Sentiment

The autumnal sell-off across the quantum space led to some pessimistic views of D-Wave and other quantum firms. However, short interest in the company has improved, and shares of QBTS rallied in the last few weeks of the year.

To top that off, a cue from the professional investment world came in a recent report that Ken Griffin, billionaire leader of the prominent hedge fund Citadel, recently loaded up on shares of D-Wave.

Analysts are continuing to signal bullishness on D-Wave stock. A large majority of analysts on Wall Street still view D-Wave as a Buy, despite recent turbulence.

On top of the significant gains achieved this year, analysts see another 26% or so in potential upside going forward.

Investors buying in at the start of the year may find that there’s still plenty of room for this quantum giant to grow.

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