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Additional Reading from MarketBeat

Capital One Stock Weak After Earnings, Brex Deal in Focus

By Chris Markoch. Published: 1/29/2026. 

Key Points

• Capital One stock fell 6% after earnings despite revenue beating expectations.
• The Brex deal expands Capital One’s payments strategy but adds near-term risk.
• Technical indicators suggest COF may be forming a buy-the-dip setup.

Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) stock is down roughly 6% one week after the bank’s earnings report on Jan. 22. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company reported $15.62 billion in revenue, beating expectations of $15.49 billion. However, the bottom line missed, with earnings per share of $3.86 versus estimates of $4.14.

From a valuation perspective, the selloff in COF stock appears understandable. Even after the drop, Capital One trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 74, a sizable premium to its historical average and well above the norm for financial stocks.

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That said, both the top-line and bottom-line figures for the fourth quarter improved year over year. Earnings per share rose 24% and revenue jumped 53% from the prior year.

This growth indicates Capital One is in an expansion phase that could continue into 2026. Some investors may have already priced that growth into COF stock ahead of the report. But another catalyst may be influencing the share price.

Capital One to Acquire Brex

As part of its earnings release, Capital One announced it will acquire Brex Inc., a privately held financial services and payments startup, for $5.15 billion. The transaction will be paid 50% in stock and 50% in cash and is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.

Brex provides corporate cards, expense-management tools and rewards programs for businesses.

The company primarily targets startups and other firms that struggle to gain attention from traditional corporate providers like American Express (NYSE: AXP).

With clients that include Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Brex has amassed more than $13 billion in deposits.

According to CEO Richard Fairbank, the deal is part of the company’s long-term plan “to build a payments company that sits at the frontier of the technology revolution.”

Buying Brex outright, rather than partnering with it, sets Capital One apart from other banks that are competing with nimble fintechs through alliances.

The Deal Is Not Without Risk

Investors may worry about the company’s appetite for acquisitions. The Brex purchase comes less than a year after Capital One agreed to acquire Discover Financial for $35 billion.

Still, the deal could give Capital One the scale to better compete with Visa (NYSE: V) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA), and it appears unlikely to change the company’s debt outlook meaningfully.

Execution—already important after the Discover acquisition—becomes even more critical now. Brex reached its peak valuation in 2023 after receiving deposits from many tech companies that fled Silicon Valley Bank. Since then, demand has softened amid rising interest rates, allowing Capital One to acquire the business for less than half its peak valuation.

COF Stock Looks Like an Attractive Buy-the-Dip Candidate

The post-earnings price action in COF stockreads like investors sold first and asked questions later. The shares are trading about 10% above their 60-day low—a level that has acted as support over the past six months.

Analysts assign COF stock a consensus price target of $274.70, implying roughly 24% upside from the stock’s price at the time of writing. More importantly, the stock is showing signs of bouncing from oversold territory according to momentum indicators such as the MACD and the relative strength index.

Investors who are interested might consider initiating a position at prices below the company’s current 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which has been a key resistance level over the past six months.

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