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Just For You

NVIDIA Nears Buy Zone as Rumors Swirl About China Chip Deal

Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/24/2025. 

Key Points

• The Trump administration floats the idea that NVIDIA might be allowed to sell H200s to China.
• Sales to China would be a bonus: NVIDIA’s stock price is heading higher anyway.
• Analyst trends are strengthening, revealing robust support and an outlook for a triple-digit upside. 

There is hope that NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) will soon be selling its H200 chips to China.

Bloomberg reported that sources said the possibility was being considered, and that development is a meaningful catalyst for the stock.

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As it stands, NVIDIA did not record any GPU or other significant sales to China in its recently reported quarter, so any H200 sales would be incremental. The caveat is that, until such sales are logged and reported, the primary effect of this news is to increase market volatility.

Does China need NVIDIA?

The short answer is yes. While Huawei and other semiconductor developers are working to produce an AI-specific GPU comparable to the H200, none are yet commercially available. The H200 offers superior performance, making it likely to be in high demand.

Historically, China has accounted for as much as 13% to 15% of NVIDIA’s annualized revenue, so sales there would materially affect expectations and outlook.

At 13% of sales, NVIDIA’s fiscal Q3 results might have been roughly $7.4 billion higher than reported, equating to about 2,100 basis points of additional revenue growth.

Of course, trade relations are complex. China, through various agencies, has signaled restrictions on foreign (U.S.) semiconductors and technology for state-funded data centers. Not only are state-funded data centers now unable to use certain foreign products, but projects under construction are increasingly opting for locally sourced technology.

The takeaway is that China, like the U.S., is building a domestic technology supply chain with protective measures. NVIDIA might be allowed to sell into China, but that doesn’t guarantee large-scale purchases.

China sales would boost NVDA, but aren’t necessary

Adding sales to China would be bullish for NVIDIA’s stock, but the company does not need those sales for its shares to continue rising.

The latest earnings report was another blowout, consistent with a pattern of significant outperformance and strong guidance. That performance suggests NVIDIA’s AI business is larger and faster-growing than many expected, accelerating after a period of normalization.

The key point is that the revenue and earnings outlook keeps expanding, creating a robustly bullish market dynamic.

NVIDIA may be a crowded trade, but analyst trends suggest it could attract even more interest.

Those trends include a spike in coverage following the fiscal Q3 release, broad support from 52 analysts, and an upward drift in the consensus price target.

The consensus, as of late November, forecasts roughly a 45% upside from critical support levels; it rose 11% after the release and is up 30% over the prior three months and 55% over the past 12 months.

Analyst high-end targets put the market at $352, representing a 95% upside from critical support, a projection that is not unreasonable given recent momentum.

NVIDIA’s valuation metrics suggest it could rise by at least 100% over the coming years, and possibly by 200% or more. Trading around 38x forward earnings, the stock isn’t cheap, but that multiple prices in substantial growth. The consensus forecast puts NVDA at only about 8x its 2025 forecasts, which may be conservative.

NVIDIA’s share price could rise by almost 200% just to align with the S&P 500 weighting and then climb further to match its historical P/E range and that of other blue-chip tech leaders.

NVDA stock pulls back to the buy zone

Macroeconomic headwinds and misplaced fears of an AI bubble helped NVIDIA’s stock correct in November.

However, the trend remains upward and indicators suggest the market will at least retest the recent highs, the key resistance level. If NVIDIA can’t set a new high soon, it may trade in a range until another strong catalyst appears.

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