A Huge Boom and Painful Bust for This Favored ‘Critical Materials’ Company

By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin AnalyticsAmerica has a lingering problem with a certain type of material…

Geopolitics thrust these materials into the spotlight in 2025. And we can’t hide from the truth any longer.

As you might have guessed by now, I’m talking about rare earth elements. We just don’t produce enough to meet our own demand.

Regular readers will recall that we discussed these materials back in April. But in the months after that, the markets dramatically changed.

The trade war with China evolved. And America’s supply of rare earths was at an existential crossroads.

Talk about the federal government funding rare earth companies started circulating. And a select few stocks benefited from this tension…

The biggest focus was on MP Materials (MP).

The company owns the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California. It contains some of the highest concentrations of rare earth elements of any mine in the world.

So it makes sense that MP Materials was poised to benefit from this trend…

On July 10, the company announced that it had entered into a massive, “transformational” partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense.

The previous day, MP Materials’ stock had closed at $30.03 per share. On July 18, shares ended the day at $63.22.

That’s a more than 110% gain in less than two weeks.

MP Materials’ stock continued its growth slowly until tensions with China reached a boiling point.

On October 9, China implemented export controls on rare earth materials. These controls were vast. And they showed just how much diplomatic force China was willing to use.

These tailwinds boosted MP Materials to a peak of $98.65 per share by October 14. The stock had soared a staggering 228% since the day before the Department of Defense contract announcement.

That also marked a more than 500% gain since the start of the year.

Folks, this type of surge is simply incredible. But the intense growth a few months ago was short-lived…Recommended Links:

Fifty-Year Wall Street Legend Issues Bear Market Warning

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Betting on MP Materials at the Wrong Time Could Have Cost You Dearly

The government decided not to make any further investments in MP Materials. And negotiations with China eased tensions.

MP Materials’ stock started sliding… hard. In less than a month after hitting that October high, it had fallen by a whopping 47%.

That’s a painful wipeout in such a short time frame.

Today, MP Materials sits nearly 40% below that October high. And it has traded mostly sideways for the past month.

The chart below shows the stock’s movement this year…Don’t get me wrong… The stock is still up about 265% since the beginning of this year. But it didn’t get much attention until tensions with China flared.

So there’s a good chance you wouldn’t have heard of MP Materials until it was already on its way up.

Like I said, America simply needs to produce more rare earths…

But the story behind MP Materials’ stock points to another trend…

With Dramatic Booms, We’re Also Seeing Dramatic Busts 

It feels like the markets are moving faster than ever. We’re seeing incredible booms… but also incredible busts. And beloved stocks have the potential to fall hard – and fast.

Sure, you could have multiplied your wealth with MP Materials if you bought at the right time…

But if you didn’t buy before the Department of Defense contract announcement in July, you likely missed out on a huge share of the gains.

And if you piled into the stock in mid-October amid the massive run-up… you would have paid a steep price.

Longtime readers know that I created the Power Gauge to prevent investors from taking big losses like that. And as we look ahead to 2026, it’s critical to avoid these kinds of fast, brutal sell-offs.

That’s why, on Tuesday, December 16, I’m going on camera for a big announcement…

It all has to do with a huge prediction for the markets in 2026… and ensuring that investors have the right tools to avoid short-term, dramatic moves to the downside.

Folks, it’s critical to know when to sell in the short term – for the highest potential gains and lowest potential losses…

So I urge you to tune in for this big event next Tuesday. It’s free to attend. Just reserve your spot – and get more details – right here.

Good investing,

Marc Chaikin

Market View

Major Indexes and Notable Sectors  # HLD:    BULLISH    NEUTRAL    BEARISHDow 30

-0.36%913 8S&P 500

-0.09%118224 156Nasdaq

+0.12%2546 29Small Caps

+0.21%616947 342Bonds

+0.1%

— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks remain somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.*  *  *  *

Sector Tracker

Sector movement over the last 5 daysInformation Technology+2.33%Energy+1.4%Communication+1.01%Financial+0.83%Industrials+0.33%Consumer Discretionary-0.2%Consumer Staples-0.99%Real Estate-1.2%Materials-1.81%Utilities-2.71%Health Care-2.85%*  *  *  *

Industry Focus

Mining Services18113

Over the past 6 months, the Mining subsector (XME) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +38.29%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #7 of 21subsectors.Top StocksAAAlcoa CorporationAMRAlpha Metallurgical HCCWarrior Met Coal, In*  *  *  *

Top Movers

GainersNEM+5.72%APP+5.05%APO+4.74%KKR+4.25%FFIV+3.94%LosersAZO-7.17%CPB-5.23%JPM-4.66%ROL-4.18%ORLY-3.93%*  *  *  *

Earnings Report

Earnings SurprisesAZO 
AutoZone, Inc. Q1 $31.04 Missed by $-1.65AVAV 
AeroVironment, Inc. Q2 $0.44 Missed by $-0.35BRZE 
Braze, Inc. Q3 $0.06 Missed by $-0.01*  *  *  *

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