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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media

Applied Materials: Up 40% in 2025 With Room to Run Long-Term

Written by Leo Miller. Published 11/20/2025. 

Key Points

• Applied Materials has had a year of ups and downs. The stock has recovered mightily since tanking in August.
• Despite experiencing sales growth of only 4%, the company’s shares have increased by 40% in 2025.
• With sales likely to recover, AMAT shares still appear to be a solid long-term investment.

Despite delivering a total return of 40%, some investors may view Applied Materials’ (NASDAQ: AMAT) 2025 performance as underwhelming. The tech stock has lagged several semiconductor equipment peers — for example, Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) has returned 107% year to date.

Applied Materials recently reported its latest results. Even though it has underperformed some competitors this year, it remains a solid play in the semiconductor equipment space going forward.

AMAT Beats Low Expectations in Q4

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Applied’s Q3 fiscal 2025 (FY2025) earnings report set a low bar: shares fell 14% on Aug. 15 after the company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the upcoming quarter. That guidance suggested revenue would decline nearly 5% year over year, while analysts had expected about 4% growth, and implied adjusted earnings per share (EPS) would fall roughly 9% versus projections for a ~3% increase.

When Applied reported Q4 FY2025 on Nov. 13, it modestly outperformed those low expectations. Sales declined 3.5% to $6.8 billion and adjusted EPS fell 6.5% — both beats versus estimates, but still reflective of a softer near-term business. The company’s guidance for Q1 FY2026 also slightly topped forecasts, yet implied year-over-year declines in revenue and adjusted EPS. Shares rose about 1% on Nov. 14 on the news.

China Risk Looks Subdued Moving Forward

China has been a major overhang for Applied after export restrictions narrowed its addressable market there, even as China’s wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending ran unusually high. Applied says it doesn’t expect additional export restrictions and has already absorbed much of the impact from prior actions. While China revenues are expected to continue declining in 2026 as the market works through an equipment oversupply, incremental China-related risk appears limited.

The company expects total revenue to be roughly flat in the first half of calendar 2026, with an acceleration in the second half — a pattern that would be consistent with a gradual recovery in end-market demand.

Applied’s Outlook Remains Favorable Despite Underperformance

Applied’s 40% total return has lagged several WFE peers in 2025. For comparison, total returns for three prominent competitors are:

• ASML (NASDAQ: ASML): 54%
• KLA (NASDAQ: KLAC): 83%
• Lam Research: 107%

Applied’s last 12 months (LTM) revenue growth of 4.4% trails the other three companies, which have posted LTM growth in the low-to-mid 20s. Part of that performance gap reflects portfolio exposure: the NAND memory equipment market — expected to roughly double by 2025 — represented only 6% of Applied’s sales last quarter versus about 18% for Lam Research. Meanwhile, investment in leading-edge foundry and logic has skewed to advanced lithography, a space where ASML has a near-monopoly and Applied does not compete.

These differences underscore the cyclical nature of the WFE industry, where demand shifts between equipment types over time. However, long-term technology investment requires growth across all equipment categories. Strong demand at other WFE companies increases the likelihood that spending will eventually flow to Applied as cycles normalize; Applied is not losing its competitive edge, it is experiencing a cyclical rough patch.

Over the past decade, all four companies have increased their LTM free cash flow at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 20%, which supports the view that Applied’s growth can recover toward peer levels over the long term.

The market appears to be pricing this dynamic: Applied’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits near 24x, roughly 27% above its three-year average forward P/E. That means Applied is less of a value play than it was several months ago, but its long-term fundamentals remain solid despite muted near-term sentiment.

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