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Additional Reading from MarketBeat
Adobe Gets Post-Earnings Lift: Long-Term Outlook Favors Upside
Submitted by Leo Miller. Publication Date: 12/13/2025.

Key Points
- In 2025, the market hit Adobe hard, causing shares to lose more than a fifth of their value.
- The company’s latest earnings neither excited nor greatly disappointed investors.
- Disruption from AI tools and emerging competitors has cast a dark cloud over the stock. However, there is reason to believe that markets are too pessimistic on ADBE.
For software behemoth Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE), 2025 has been a rough year. Year-to-date, shares are down about 21%, trading near $350—a roughly 45% decline from their all-time high of $635 reached in February 2024.
Despite the steep decline, the stock got some relief after the tech company reported its latest results on Dec. 10. The stock closed roughly 2% higher the following day after investors digested a solid, if not transformative, quarter. The report helps clarify where the stock might head next.
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At its current price, Adobe appears to be valued for only modest growth. If the company can outpace these low expectations, there could be substantial long-term upside. Still, mounting competition and disruption make future outcomes difficult to predict.
Adobe’s Beats Across the Board, Leading to a Modest Gain in Shares
In Q4 fiscal 2025 (FY2025), Adobe reported revenue of $6.19 billion, up about 10%. That beat sales estimates of roughly $6.11 billion. The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose about 14% to $5.50, modestly above estimates of $5.40.
Annualized recurring revenue (ARR), a key subscription metric, ended FY2025 at $25.66 billion, up 11.5%. Adobe expects ARR growth of just over 10% in FY2026. At its midpoints, the company projects FY2026 revenue of $26 billion (about 9.3% growth) and adjusted EPS of $23.40 (about 11.7% growth). Those forecasts were slightly ahead of expectations and helped lift the stock on Dec. 11.
Adobe & AI: The Market’s Tug of War
A major overhang for Adobe is the belief that artificial intelligence (AI) tools could significantly limit its long-term growth. Image-generation tools, such as Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Gemini Nano Banana Pro, directly challenge traditional offerings like Photoshop. Outside AI-specific tools, competitor Figma (NYSE: FIG) is growing at better-than-35% rates.
Adobe has invested heavily in building its own AI capabilities to counter this disruption, and those tools are seeing meaningful engagement. For example, customer usage of generative AI credits tripled in one quarter. Use of AI features in Acrobat and Reader quadrupled year over year. ARR from content automation offerings such as Firefly Services and Firefly Foundry doubled from the prior year. These trends indicate customers are rapidly adopting Adobe’s AI offerings despite competition.
Still, markets remain concerned those investments may not reaccelerate revenue growth. Adobe’s FY2026 ARR forecast implies a slowdown from 11.5% to about 10.2%. Adobe’s current valuation could still be justified if long-term growth settles below 10%, but that would likely require the company to maintain a very high long-term free cash flow margin—around 41%.
Margins could come under pressure if Adobe boosts investments or increases spending on customer acquisition and retention to fend off rivals. The company’s adjusted operating margin in FY2025 was roughly 46.2%; management expects a modest contraction to about 45% in FY2026. Any further margin compression could weigh on free cash flow.
ADBE: A Cash Cow Up Against Low Expectations
MarketBeat tracked two Wall Street analysts who updated their Adobe price targets on Dec. 11. TD Cowen’s $400 target and DA Davidson’s $500 target both imply upside versus the stock’s Dec. 11 close near $350. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $419 implies roughly 20% upside potential.
Given the relatively modest expectations baked into the share price, Adobe’s risk-reward profile currently looks moderately skewed to the upside. That said, investors should watch execution closely.
Establishing itself as a dominant player in the rapidly evolving AI landscape will be key to the stock’s long-term success.
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