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Special Report

Nike Beats on Earnings But Struggles in China and Faces Tariffs

Authored by Leo Miller. First Published: 12/19/2025. 

What You Need to Know

• Nike beat revenue and EPS estimates in its latest earnings report but still showed underlying operational weaknesses.
• The company’s DTC strategy faces challenges, especially in China, while wholesale and running product lines are performing well.
• Nike’s long-term recovery hinges on its Sport Offense strategy and managing tariff impacts, but investor confidence remains shaky.

The last three years have not been kind to U.S. apparel giant Nike (NYSE: NKE). As of the Dec. 18 close, shares had dropped about 34% over that three-year span, with sales, margins and profits all down significantly.

A series of strategic missteps contributed to the decline, including lagging product innovation compared with emerging competitors such as ON (NYSE: ONON). Nike’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) push also had unintended consequences: as the company focused on its own channels, competitors gained visibility through retailers like Foot Locker, which stocked alternative products.

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Excess inventory and tariffs have also weighed on margins.

Still, analyst price targets continue to imply upside potential for Nike shares. Below, we examine the company’s Dec. 18 earnings release to assess its path to recovery. 

Nike Beats on Top and Bottom Lines

In its latest quarter, Nike reported revenue of $12.4 billion, up about 1% (flat on a currency-neutral basis), beating Wall Street estimates of just under $12.2 billion.

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.53, down 32% year-over-year, but comfortably ahead of analysts’ forecasts of $0.38 (which had implied a nearly 53% decline).

For the next quarter, the company expects revenue to decline in the low single digits and projects gross margin to contract roughly 200 basis points at the midpoint, citing significant tariff headwinds.

Mixed Operational Metrics Highlight Strengths and Weaknesses

Gross margin declined 300 basis points to 40.6%, largely due to tariff-related pressures. Nike expects tariffs to continue affecting results but is taking measures aimed at reducing the gross-margin impact to about 120 basis points in FY2026.

North American sales were a bright spot, rising 9%, while every other region posted negative currency-adjusted growth. Greater China was especially weak, with sales down 16%.

Wholesale revenue improved, rising 8% and signaling better performance among retail partners. By contrast, Nike Direct Digital — the company’s DTC e-commerce channel — fell 14%, including a 36% decline in Chinese Nike Direct Digital revenue.

CEO Elliott Hill has noted that Chinese consumers tend to take an e-commerce-first approach, which makes the deterioration in China particularly concerning for Nike.

The company plans to “reset its approach to the China marketplace” as part of its broader recovery strategy.

A clear positive was the running product line, which grew 20% for the second consecutive quarter, delivering double-digit gains in both wholesale and DTC. This is an early sign that the Sport Offense strategy may be gaining traction.

Under Sport Offense, Nike is reorganizing into teams focused on specific sports. Management believes this approach will help deliver products that consistently resonate with target consumers. As a multi-sport brand, that could help Nike regain relevance, but implementation remains at an early stage.

Shares Fall After Earnings as Recovery Is Slow-Going

Despite top- and bottom-line beats, investors reacted negatively to Nike’s results. In after-hours trading on Dec. 18, Nike shares fell nearly 10%. Disappointing guidance for next quarter and concerns about operational weakness weighed on sentiment.

Trading near $59 after-hours, Nike will need a meaningful rebound in long-term free cash flow growth to support a higher valuation. Management appears committed to long-term investment, but the pace of progress is slower than investors had hoped.

Nike remains one of the world’s most recognizable sports apparel brands, a franchise advantage that provides a solid foundation for recovery. If the company can arrest weakness in China, manage tariff challenges, and rebuild its DTC business, it could stage a significant rebound.

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