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Today’s Exclusive Article

Is Netflix Making a Calculated Play for the Dow Jones?

By Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Published: 12/1/2025. 

Article Highlights

• The recent stock split removed the primary mathematical barrier that had previously prevented Netflix from being considered for the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average.
• The company’s impressive free cash flow and consistent profitability demonstrate its successful transition into a financially mature and stable enterprise.
• Potential inclusion in the Dow would trigger automatic buying from index funds and cement the stock’s status as a long-term, blue-chip core holding.

In mid-November, Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares began trading at a new, more accessible price following a 10-for-1 stock split.

While the move instantly made Netflix’s stock price more affordable for a broader range of investors, it also ignited speculation among institutional trading desks.

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The decision to bring the share price down from over $1,000 to the much quieter neighborhood of $107 was not merely cosmetic; it may have been a calculated signal of the company’s ambition to join the ranks of the market’s most established industrial titans.

With a market capitalization of approximately $455 billion, Netflix has long had the scale of a blue-chip company. Its high per-share price, however, made it an outlier. Now, trading around $107.47 per share, the entertainment-sector streaming pioneer is sending a clear message that it is ready for a new role on Wall Street’s biggest stage. This strategic repricing may be a deliberate audition for a coveted spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

The Price-Weighted Puzzle: Netflix’s Key to the Club

To understand why the split matters, it helps to know how the Dow works.

Unlike the S&P 500, which is weighted by a company’s total market value, the Dow is a price-weighted index. In simple terms, a stock’s price — not its overall size — determines its influence on the index’s daily movement. For example, a $1 move in a $200 stock has twice the impact on the Dow as a $1 move in a $100 stock.

That structure created a practical barrier for Netflix. A stock trading at $1,000 or more would have an outsized effect, skewing the index and making inclusion impractical. For years, that kept Netflix on the sidelines despite its industry dominance. The 10-for-1 split solves that problem: at its current price, Netflix would fit seamlessly among the 30 current members.

By aligning its share price with the index’s norms, Netflix has effectively positioned itself to be considered for admission.

The Blue-Chip Transformation: Netflix’s Financial Graduation

A suitable stock price is necessary but not sufficient for a Dow invitation.

The selection committee also prefers companies that demonstrate financial stability and industry leadership. For years Netflix was the quintessential growth stock, spending aggressively to acquire subscribers. That chapter appears to be winding down. The company has transitioned into a more self-sustaining, profitable enterprise — a key trait of a Dow component.

The financial evidence for that graduation is persuasive:

• Strong Free Cash Flow: Netflix is on track to generate approximately $9 billion in free cash flow in 2025. Free cash flow represents the cash left after operating expenses and investments, enabling a company to fund new content, reduce debt, and repurchase shares without relying on additional borrowing.
• Consistent Profitability: The company reported $3.25 billion in operating income in the third quarter of 2025. A one-time, $619 million tax charge in Brazil trimmed its operating margin, but the underlying business demonstrated its efficiency. Without that charge, Netflix would have outpaced profitability forecasts.
• A Diversified Revenue Engine: Netflix’s financial health is no longer tied solely to subscriber growth. The ad-supported tier is a powerful and growing revenue stream, on track to double its revenue in 2025 and now powered by Netflix’s proprietary ad-technology platform. This diversification creates a more predictable, resilient business model — a hallmark of a blue-chip company.

Musical Chairs on Wall Street: Netflix Eyes a Seat

The DJIA is an exclusive club with only 30 members. For Netflix to gain admission, another company must be removed. That choice is made by a selection committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices and is not governed by a rigid formula; the committee seeks to have the index reflect the broader U.S. economy by including leaders in their respective fields.

Historically, companies that are removed tend to have lagging stock performance, diminished industry leadership, or represent sectors that are becoming less central to the economy. Predicting which company might be replaced is difficult, but the committee’s aim is to keep the index current. The case for adding the undisputed leader in streaming — a dominant force in modern media consumption — is strong, particularly if an existing member from a legacy sector is underperforming.

What Dow Inclusion Means for Netflix

If Netflix is added to the Dow, the stock could see a meaningful and immediate impact.

Often called the Dow Effect, inclusion forces dozens of index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the DJIA to buy Netflix shares when they rebalance. That creates automatic, sustained buying pressure that can lift the stock price.

Beyond the initial bump, inclusion would confer prestige. It would cement Netflix’s status as a blue-chip holding, potentially attracting more conservative, long-term investors and reducing volatility over time. That validation can also lower a company’s cost of capital, making it cheaper to finance future growth.

Whether an invitation arrives in the coming months or not, the strategic and financial moves behind this possibility are bullish. The stock split, rising free cash flow, and consistent profitability signal that management increasingly views the company not as a speculative growth play but as a foundational, long-term holding.

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