3 Contrarian Trades I’m Making Now

Don Kaufman here.

Earlier today I had an opportunity to talk shop with Schwab’s Trading 360 show, and I wanted to share the three trades I laid out – because honestly, I think the market’s giving us some gift-wrapped opportunities right now.

Look, I live on an island most of the year, and I just got back this past weekend. One of the first places I hit? Costco. Which brings me to my first trade.

Fading Costco’s Bounce Back to Reality

Everyone’s celebrating Costco’s recovery from that brutal slide – we’re talking 924 all the way back above 960. But here’s the thing: this bounce is exactly why I’m stepping in on the short side.

I’m looking at October 17th expiration, buying the 905 puts, selling the 895 puts for a $3 debit. It’s a $10 wide spread with $7 of upside.

Why?

The consumer’s getting called into question on high-ticket items. Tariffs are going to hit those big purchases, and people are hesitating. You may see same-store sales coming soft in the coming months as folks say “let’s see how this plays out.”

The downside trend is still intact. This rally? Perfect entry point for shorts.

Bond Vigilantes Are Back – And I’m Selling Treasuries

Here’s my most contrarian call: I’m selling 30-year Treasury futures outright. No options play this time – straight futures.

Everyone’s focused on technicals, but I’m looking at the fundamentals screaming at us.

Bond vigilantes aren’t done.

You’ve got the administration influencing the BLS – that firing is calling data integrity into question. Higher rates for longer are crushing the Treasury’s debt load.

And we haven’t even talked about foreign sovereigns potentially selling Treasuries in retaliation for tariff policies.

The bond market’s been pushed down from resistance at 11510 repeatedly over the past few months. Every time we get above that level, the vigilantes come for it. I think this time’s no different.

Boeing’s 70% Rally Has Run Its Course

This one might sound crazy – shorting Boeing after a 70% run from April lows. But hear me out.

Even with strikes and questionable headlines, this stock has been absolutely spectacular. That’s exactly why I think it’s running out of gas.

I’m using September 5th expiration – buying 230 puts, selling 225 puts for a $210 debit. It’s what we call an in-out spread.

I’m not looking for a major pullback, just fading this most recent bounce following earnings. Sometimes the best trades are the simplest ones.

Why I’m Comfortable Taking the Other Side

These trades all share something: I’m betting against recent optimism where I see structural pressure building underneath.

Whether it’s consumer hesitation, Treasury market dynamics, or momentum exhaustion – I’m positioning where enthusiasm might be getting ahead of reality.

Want to see exactly how I’m structuring these trades and the technical levels I’m watching?

Watch my Schwab segment here.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

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