22 States Are in Recession

Are 22 U.S. states already in recession?…
Statistical torture…
From the desks of President Trump and Robert Kiyosaki… this book isn’t available anywhere else. That’s unfortunate for most Americans. The good news is you can get a copy. Go here to see why it’s so important — and exactly how you can get your hands on it.

Dear Reader,

Today I bear ill tidings.

Twenty-two American states wallow in recession.

If you keep your being in the states of Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Minnesota, lowa, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Mississippi, Georgia or the District of Columbia… your state is enduring economic contraction.

Thirteen additional states — meantime — are “treading water” to remain afloat.

This we have on the authority of Moody’s Analytics:

Source: Moody’s Analytics, MarketWatch

One “Strong Wing” From National Recession

Reports MarketWatch:

The U.S. economy is very close to falling into a damaging contraction — and many states are already experiencing a recession, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics…

The overall picture is one of a weak U.S. economy that is vulnerable to being pushed into a ditch by a strong wind…

California and New York are among the states that are treading water. If either of those falters, it would tip the economy into recession, Zandi said.

And yet the Atlanta outpost Federal Reserve divines that the nation’s third-quarter gross domestic product expanded 3.8%.

I can only conclude that the remaining state economies are expanding at rates truly prodigious.

Or, conversely, that the Atlanta outpost of the Federal Reserve is dispensing statistical misinformation.

SPONSORED: BANYAN HILL

[OCTOBER 16] Reagan’s Most Quoted Author Issues Final Warning

President Reagan quoted George Gilder more than any other living author.

He gave Gilder’s books to cabinet members.

Awarded him the White House Award for Entrepreneurial Excellence.

The reason? Gilder could see the future before anyone else.

Now Gilder says an October 16th announcement will confirm his latest prediction – one he believes will create more millionaires than we’ve seen in decades.

See his 3 stock picks before October 16 changes the game.

Really?

Here is the formula government data-torturers — my apologies, government statisticians — employ to calculate the gross domestic product:

(Consumer spending) + (Government spending) + (Investment spending) + (Exports – Imports) = GDP

Let us briefly consider component no. 4, exports minus imports.

In the official telling, greater imported goods constrict the gross domestic product.

They are, after all, not produced domestically.

Yet does the gross domestic product actually expand — or are you witnessing a statistical hallucination?

They Want You to Believe That Less Is More

Mr. Peter Reagan of Birch Gold:

The most recent figures tell us GDP… grew 3.8% (annualized).

What changed? Well, imports dropped about 9% while exports fell a lot less, about -1%.

In other words, overall we shopped less and sold less internationally — which nets out as a win for GDP!

This seems so amazingly backwards to me… How can doing less business work out as a win?

I can offer no answer. Then again, I am not a statistician within the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Stop Complaining, Your Headache Increases GDP!

Here Mr. Reagan cites one example of statistical flubdubbery:

Imagine you’re running a car dealership… You bought 5,000 cars from the factory. You only sold 4,500 of them.

For you, these unsold cars are a headache and a red flag about demand

To the GDP statisticians, they’re a sign of “production,” so they count as growth!

How does this make any sense at all?

Again, I offer no answer. It is statistical misinformation.

Here I distinguish “misinformation” from the more pernicious and intentional “disinformation.”

That is because the government statistician may not intentionally deceive. He may intend to sketch an accurate economic scene.

Yet the assumptions, adjustments and other formulae he employs are often so imprecise… he can innocently mistake A for B… B for A… or A or B for C.

Statistical magic wands such as “seasonal adjustments,” “real value added” and “quality adjustments” effect the tricks.

“The Data Is Completely Wrong”

Mr. Patrick Fitzsimmons is an engineer by vocation. He trained his engineering skills upon the United States government’s statistical torture centers.

He discovered that the methods deployed therein obfuscate rather than illuminate:

U.S. GDP keeps going up, yet it seems like we make less stuff and that most of the smart people I know work fake jobs…

Meanwhile… Everyone from the American Enterprise Institute to The Wall Street Journal to Wikipedia agrees that U.S. manufacturing has not just not significantly fallen — but it has never been higher…

How is this possible? The answer is actually very simple: the data is completely wrong.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

For example:

The most commonly cited graph shared to demonstrate U.S. manufacturing strength is based on the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) manufacturing “real value-added” data, which looks at manufacturing as a subset of total GDP.

This graph has been cited by Federal Reserve economists, Washington Post columnists, professors — all claiming it refutes the idea that the U.S. economy has been hollowed out. Adjusted for inflation, it shows manufacturing is up 71% since the dataset began in 1997, and up a healthy 37% per capita:

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Palladium Magazine

And yet:

You might think that a measure of manufacturing would in some way measure actual manufactured goods emerging from U.S. factories, like tons of steel rolling out of mills… and cars rolling off the assembly line.

But this is not the case. Despite the name, “real GDP” in practice is the result of hundreds of arbitrary and subjective decisions made by government-employed economists, such as “education administrators are more productive than teachers” or that a 25% increase in automobile “quality” can theoretically show up as a 166% increase in “real GDP value added.”

Does This Make Sense?

Consider United States steel production, 1997-2023:

Steel mills & manufacturing from purchased steel: in raw tonnage, steel shipped is down 18%, real gross output is up 5%, real value-added is up 125%. Inputs as a percentage of gross output rose from 73% to 74%.

[So]…Actual steel rolling out of the mills is down, the inflation-adjusted value of the steel and steel products rolling out of the mills is flat, inputs as a percentage of output is the same as ever — yet value-added is up 125%!

I challenge anyone who believes in these statistics to tell me what in the real world happened so that raw tonnage of steel was down, real gross output of steel was flat, usage of inputs was up, but “real value-added” was also up, and up hugely.

Nobody can explain these numbers. The BEA cannot — I have asked them!

In industry after industry, similar statistical torture vastly inflates actual productivity.

Who Are You Going to Believe?

Thus Mr. Fitzpatrick concludes that:

Putting it all together, U.S. manufacturing is hurting badly. It is decidedly not the case that American manufacturing is more productive than ever. It is an inexcusable failing that the U.S. does not have comprehensive numbers that track all essential output needed to maintain our quality of life…

“Ah, but who are you going to believe?,” asks the government statistician — “me, or your lying eyes?”

I have my answer. I trust it is your answer.

It is not the answer he wishes to hear. Nor is it the answer his employer wishes to hear.

Yet it is the true answer.

Regards,

Brian Maher

for Kiyosaki Uncensored

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