The $126 Move Nobody Saw Coming (And What’s Next)

RJ Hamster

3 days ago

The Merrygo-Round of Risk Continues…

Don Kaufman here.

if you missed the last 24 hours of trade, you missed absolute insanity.

We’re talking S&Ps rallying over 100 points only to see sellside activity drop us to 5853, then back again. And here’s the kicker – over the last three weeks, we’ve gone absolutely nowhere. Massively unchanged with a side order of tweet.

That’s the reality of it.

Look, I’d be remiss not to mention I’m surprised the marketplace flattened back out here into the close. Because quite frankly, I wouldn’t go home long this weekend. There’s trouble in tariff paradise, and I think we’re about to get some pretty negative implications on the trade front.

Here’s what you need to understand about this market right now:

• Why the PCE data – the Fed’s inflationary indicator of choice – moved absolutely nothing in the marketplace (when just months ago similar data was good for 60-70 point S&P moves)

• The “warning shot” Don believes the administration fired this morning… and why it signals much bigger problems ahead

• How three separate instances of “incredibly tight range” trading reveal the market’s true vulnerability to tweet-driven chaos

• Why next week’s expected move pricing of just $104 could be catastrophically wrong (especially after this week’s $126+ actual movement)

• The specific technical pattern Don’s watching that shows we’re in a “chocolate-covered hand grenade” environment

The marketplace is living or dying by the tweet, okay? We’re not in the driver’s seat anymore. That’s why I keep saying spreads, spreads, spreads in every way possible.

But there’s something specific I’m seeing in the technicals that differs from what most people are looking at right now. And my assessment of where we’re headed next week might surprise you.

WATCH MY COMPLETE FRIDAY MARKET BREAKDOWN

Don’t go into this weekend unprepared. This is a fast-moving marketplace capable of 200-300 S&P handles in moments.

To your success,

Don Kaufman