How Airbnb Turned the Hospitality Industry on Its Head
RJ Hamster
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Editor’s note: Today in the Chaikin PowerFeed, our friend Whitney Tilson is back…
Regular readers know that he’s an editor over at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research. And we’ve shared insights from him a couple times this month.
Today’s essay most recently published in the May 21 edition of Stansberry’s free DailyWealth e-letter. In it, Whitney shares how a big idea helped shake up an entire industry – and what the secret of one company’s success means for investors.
Additionally, please note that the markets and our Chaikin Analytics offices will be closed Monday, May 26, for Memorial Day. So we won’t publish the PowerFeedthat day.
We hope you enjoy the long weekend. And you can expect to receive your next issue on Tuesday, May 27.
Now, here’s Whitney…
How Airbnb Turned the Hospitality Industry on Its Head
By Whitney Tilson, editor, Stansberry Research
In 2007, thousands of designers were gathering for the Industrial Designers Society of America’s annual conference…
Joe Gebbia and Brian Chesky had recently moved to San Francisco after graduating from the Rhode Island School of Design. They knew how popular the conference was – so much so that they suspected attendees would have trouble finding hotel rooms.
Sure enough, when they checked, they couldn’t find any available hotel rooms in the city.
Sensing demand – and needing to raise money to pay their rent – they had an epiphany: What if they charged conference attendees to stay in their apartment?
Gebbia and Chesky bought a few airbeds and quickly built a website that allowed designers to book a place to sleep, plus breakfast, for just $80 per night.
It was an immediate hit…
The duo ended up hosting three professional designers – which helped cover their rent. And the overwhelming interest in the idea indicated they were onto something much bigger. Their company was about to transform the hospitality industry thanks to one key feature of its business model…
A breakthrough tech PwC says could be worth $16 trillion is quietly showing up in restaurants, warehouses, and even the operating room. Amazon, Tesla, and Google have committed tens of billions of dollars this year toward this tech, which some experts predict will be in every middle-class household in America in a few short years. Learn the four steps to take to potentially profit from this inevitable trend.
Gebbia and Chesky brought their friend Nathan Blecharczyk, a software engineer and recent Harvard University grad, into the fold as the third co-founder to spruce up their website.
After six months of hard work developing the idea and website, they launched their apartment-sharing business with high hopes at the enormous South by Southwest film festival and conference in Austin, Texas in March 2008.
It was a disaster… They only had two bookings, one of which was from Chesky.
Undeterred, the trio decided to try again at the Democratic National Convention in Denver that August. Business was better, but it wasn’t enough to pay the bills.
Gebbia and Chesky then put their design skills to work and came up with specially branded cereals to profit from the excitement surrounding the 2008 election: Obama O’s and Cap’n McCain’s.
The political cereals, which they sold for $40 per box, weren’t just a way to pay the youngsters’ bills… They were also a brilliant marketing tactic.
And it was a massive success…
Not only did it net Gebbia, Chesky, and Blecharczyk $30,000 – but it also generated national press coverage for their fledgling business, later known as Airbnb (ABNB).
The Key to Airbnb’s Success
The trio soon realized that they had stumbled onto one of the rarest, most powerful business dynamics in the world…
Airbnb was soon benefiting from what’s known as a “flywheel.”
Flywheels occur when each interaction between a customer and the business reinforces the customer’s desire to return to the business, allowing it to grow naturally with each interaction. E-commerce giant Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime service and its two-day delivery is a great example of this dynamic.
In Airbnb’s case, as users enjoyed each stay, they were more likely to book again. And the more they did so, the more money hosts would make.
When hosts made more money, they would tell their friends about the new way they were making money, which would lead to more listings. And with more listings, more users signed up…
The success meant that Gebbia, Chesky, and Blecharczyk had been right all along.
Just two years later, Airbnb had booked more than 1 million nights. By the mid-2010s, the company became a global giant – disrupting the entire lodging industry and sporting a private market valuation of more than $25 billion.
Today, you can book an Airbnb in more than 220 countries and more than 150,000 cities and towns around the world…
Airbnb is now worth nearly $80 billion. What the company’s founders and its 7,300 employees have accomplished in about 17 years is nothing short of remarkable.
As more people signed up to book stays on the site – from 3 million in 2012 to 150 million by 2018 – more people began listing their apartments and houses for rent. Over the same period, Airbnb’s listings grew from around 300,000 to 6 million. That’s a 1,900% increase in just six years. Take a look…
That, in turn, sent revenues soaring (save for a one-time blip during the pandemic lockdowns)…
Airbnb is a textbook example of how technology can disrupt age-old industries, crowning brand-new winners and threatening to put “old fashioned” companies out of business.
And as an investor, those are the types of companies you should always be looking for.
Good investing,
Whitney Tilson
Editor’s note: Earlier this week, Whitney joined up with another legendary investor – Jeff Brown of our corporate affiliate Brownstone Research. During a special event, they both issued a huge prediction based on a secret of Silicon Valley…
As they say, a new AI “super chip” could soon transform the entire AI sector. And at the same time, they say this breakthrough could cause the “old world” stocks of the past decade to crash this year.
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks have turned somewhat Bearish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Consumer Staples
+0.2%
Health Care
+0.07%
Materials
-0.35%
Communication
-0.44%
Industrials
-0.61%
Utilities
-1.1%
Consumer Discretionary
-1.42%
Financial
-2.05%
Real Estate
-2.07%
Information Technology
-2.18%
Energy
-4.53%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Semiconductor Services
5
23
13
Over the past 6 months, the Semiconductor subsector (XSD) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -3.99%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #15 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
WOLF
Wolfspeed, Inc.
INDI
indie Semiconductor,
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors N
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
STX
+4.24%
UAL
+3.64%
MRNA
+3.57%
LHX
+2.84%
PANW
+2.69%
Losers
ENPH
-19.62%
HUM
-7.58%
NEE
-6.43%
TPL
-5.66%
AES
-4.94%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
Q4
$1.00
Beat by $0.40
BJ
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
Q1
$1.14
Beat by $0.23
WSM
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
Q1
$1.56
Missed by $-0.20
RL
Ralph Lauren Corporation
Q4
$2.27
Beat by $0.23
WDAY
Workday, Inc.
Q1
$2.23
Beat by $0.22
* * * *
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