Wall Street Whiplash – We’re Live at 8:45 ET

May 14, 2025
by RJ Hamster

Dear Fellow Trader:

That was fast.

The S&P 500 just pulled off the fastest rebound in 40+ years, according to BeSpoke.

That erased 2025 losses quicker than you can say “transitory inflation.”

After face-planting to an April 7 low, the index has rocketed up 22% in what has to be the most dramatic mood swing on Wall Street since someone invented free Black Car rides home after 9 pm at Goldman Sachs.

We’ll talk today about how we traded and followed it since the selloff started in February. I’ll be live for today’s Market Masters at 8:45 ET. Join me live at this link.

From “The Sky is Falling” to “Nevermind!”

Remember when all those economists were absolutely positive we were headed for economic disaster?

A 90-day tariff timeout changed everything.

Wall Street’s finest are now tripping over themselves to walk back recession calls faster than politicians backpedal during election season.

JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli, who predicted a recession not too long ago, now says: “The administration’s recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the US economy slips into recession this year.”

This is a little secret on Wall Street… one that I’ll explain.

Everyone wants to be the first to predict something.

Here’s the economics-for-dummies version:

Tariffs = stealth taxes.

By cutting the effective tariff rate from 24% to 14%, we’ve basically given American consumers a $300 billion “tax cut.”

Who knew international trade policy could this easy?

Goldman Sachs (never one to miss a bandwagon) slashed its recession odds from 45% to 35%, while doubling its GDP growth forecast to a whopping 1%.

Barclays abandoned its recession call, presumably burning the evidence that they ever made it.

Meanwhile, Yardeni Research is feeling so bullish they’re forecasting 2025 GDP between 1.5% and 2.5%.

Those are some wild numbers, fellas…

Stocks Say “Thank You Very Much”

Stock futures took a breather Wednesday after Nvidia and its AI besties powered Tuesday’s tech rally.

Turns out inflation is behaving itself too, growing at the slowest pace since 2021 despite all the trade drama.

In the “putting their money where their mouth is” department, Yardeni Research jacked up its S&P 500 target from 6,000 to 6,500.

Goldman’s crystal ball now shows 6,100 by year-end, up from 5,900.

Even the gamblers on Polymarket are feeling bullish. Recession odds dropped from 51% to under 40%.

Not Everyone Got the Memo

Despite the champagne popping on Wall Street, some party poopers remain.

Foxconn (who make the iPhone components and Nvidia’s AI servers) just downgraded their outlook, specifically blaming tariff chaos.

Foxconn Chairman Young Liu warned, “Over the past month, rapid changes in U.S. tariff policies have considerably impacted the global supply chain.”

Of course, this 90-day truce is about as permanent as a Hollywood marriage.

We still need an actual trade deal, and those higher overall tariffs could hit markets hard.

But why worry about tomorrow when stocks are up today?

Trading With Don and Me

I’ll be live at 8:45 ET for our full trading session. Then, I’ll join Don Kaufman at 9:20 to open the market and look for his top trades of the day. All are invited, but you have to join me…

Right here…

In the room…

I’ll see you in 30 minutes.

Stay positive,

Garrett Baldwin

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RJ Hamster

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