Charles’ Note: The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) really was tragic. It didn’t actually shrink government spending… and it never realistically had the practical or legal ability to do so. But it created an uproar and unfortunately spent a lot of President Trump’s political capital.
It also took a major bite out of the president’s approval ratings and made it all the more likely that his party loses control of congress next year.
Meaningful reform is all but impossible with a divided government.
So, our government continues to spend trillions of dollars it doesn’t have, saddling future generations with that debt burden.
“Big, beautiful tariffs” aren’t going to fix this.
Only an act of sobriety by Congress or, more likely, a crisis in the dollar and the bond market, will potentially right the ship. By then, it will be too late.
Barring nuclear armageddon, there will still be an America. We’ll still enjoy baseball, barbeque, and conspicuous consumption. The British Empire fell last century, and last I checked there was still an England where you could still get a decent pint and a fish and chips.
But the pound sterling stopped mattering decades ago, around the time London became mostly irrelevant as a financial capital.
Is this the future for America?
Bill Bonner gives it to us straight.
As founder of Bonner Private Research, Bill has dedicated his life to understanding market insanity and using that knowledge to invest successfully. The man’s been connecting the dots for longer than I’ve been alive.
“King of Kings Ozymandias am I. If any want to know how great I am and where I lie, let him outdo me in my work.”
—Diodorus Siculus
Nations can go on… and on. The Chinese are still Chinese. The Turks are still in Turkey. And the French will always be with us.
But empires rise and fall, with a lifespan of only about 250 years, on average.
A visit to the imperial graveyard would show us tombstones of the Assyrians, the Medes, the Ashanti, the Aztec, Austro-Hungarians… and so on… and perhaps even the “two vast and trunkless legs of stone”described by Shelley.
They spoke different languages. They had different trade and immigration policies. Some were rich. Others were poor.
What they all have in common is that they are all dead. They sleep among the shades. They are all gone. Finished.
How do empires die?
The subject has been studied for many years. By historians. By poets. By religious nuts and scientific nerds.
Diodorus was on the case in the 1st century BC. He claimed to have found the inscription above on the tomb of Ramses II in Egypt, later inspiring Shelley’s famous poem.
And while there is no single answer as to what does them in, opinions converge on the two main empire killers… money and military. Too little of the former; too much of the latter.
In some cases, natural or demographic disasters play a role. But usually, the death of an empire has man-made causes.
“Man-made” disasters need leaders.
Alexander led his troops to the Ganges and to the Nile… thus installing a Macedonian dynasty in Egypt that Diodorus, a Greek from Sicily, was able to visit. He got there just in time.
The last of the Ptolemaic rulers was Cleopatra, who made the mistake of taking Marc Antony for a lover and ally. Ms. Cleopatra might be described as a “tool of history,” helping to put an end to the group that had ruled Egypt for 275 years.
Then, when Octavian defeated Antony at the battle of Actium, it was all over, not just for her and Antony, but for the Greeks in Egypt. Another empire – Roman – took over in 30 BC.
Which brings us, like fleas to a dog, to our own Donald J. Trump. He is the Big Man… the Caesar of today. L’etat..c’est lui!
We know what he says he is trying to do. His supporters (some of them) think he was spared by God to do it. But God thinks big. Long term. In historical terms, not limited to the election cycle. And at this stage of America’s empire journey – after nearly 250 years of sweeping all before it – we have to wonder… what is Donald J. Trump really meant to do? Take it to even greater glory? Or, to fulfill the natural life-cycle of all empires… that is, to help it into the past, not the future?
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If America were to develop into an even bigger, stronger empire it would first have to avoid going broke. That is a relatively obvious threat… and one that is relatively easy to avoid.
From the chief executive’s point of view, he would simply insist that henceforth outflows match inflows – something a hundred million American households are able to do every year.
He might even quote our old friend Sid Taylor in warning: “When your outflow exceeds your income, your upkeep is your downfall.”
Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the administration’s goal was to shift resources away from the government so as to give the private sector a chance to grow. Were he really trying to take the empire to greater heights, Donald Trump would make that his Number One priority and veto any spending that added to U.S. debt. Then, the strength of the economy might power the empire to further success.
Of course, it would be up to Congress to decide where to cut. This, too, would be easy, in theory… though politically difficult. Small cuts to domestic spending programs, including means-testing social welfare/pension/medical care benefits, would be enough to bring homeland spending into line.
Easier still, the military/overseas spending could be cut in half – a savings of some $500 billion – simply by focusing on an America First homeland defense.
But in the press recently was this remarkable headline, the Daily Express:
Trump drops “Crimea will stay with Russia” bombshell and urges Ukraine to give in
What is amazing about this is not that Crimea should stay with Russia. It was originally annexed from the Turks by Catherine the Great in 1783… about the same time as the Americans “annexed” the colonies from the British empire.
What is shocking is that an American president should think it is his place to decide the issue.
Who elected him president of the Crimeans?
Does he speak any of the major languages of the peninsula?
Could he find it on a map?
Why then does he think it’s up to him to choose the government?
This is the kind of “imperial overstretch” that the gods punish. Along with big increases to the military budget… trade wars… chaos… incompetence… and deficits headed towards $2 trillion annually – it begins to look as though the real purpose of Team Trump were to destroy the empire, not to make it great again.
Could it be that Mr. Trump has unwittingly become a tool of history too?
