GOOD MORNING

Equity tried to advance on Thursday after a stronger-than-expected retail sales report. Retail sales accelerated to 0.4% monthly and 1.7% compared to last year, revealing the resiliency of American consumers. In this environment, demand is strong and likely to keep inflation elevated, diminishing the outlook for FOMC interest rate cuts, but there is a silver lining. The silver lining is that the U.S. consumer-led economy drives earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2024 and continues to outpace estimates. With this dynamic in place, the market could rally well into 2025.

Tech stocks like NVIDIA underpinned movement in the S&P 500 on Thursday. Shares of NVIDIA rose more than 3% at the session’s high to set a new all-time high. The risk is that market action in the semiconductor stock was tepid at the new highs, creating a small, spinning top candle showing indecision. Without a significant catalyst to drive it, shares of NVIDIA could revert to lower prices within the 2024 trading range and cap gains for the broader market until its earnings are released in November.

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